Phillies: 5 lessons to learn from 2019 World Series
There are several things the Phillies can learn from the 2019 World Series between the Houston Astros and their division-rival Washington Nationals.
It’s been one month since the 2019 World Series concluded, and two months since the Philadelphia Phillies season finale, in which the team limped to an 81-81 record in what would be Gabe Kapler’s final game leading the team.
Baseball fans around the country watched as the team’s division rival, Washington Nationals, took home the World Series trophy after winning four games on Houston’s home turf.
The Owners Meetings concluded last week, and the GM meetings two weeks ago. Since, we have already seen a few transactions: Yasmani Grandal signed a four-year, $73 million deal with the White Sox, and the Braves have made some bullpen moves, signing Chris Martin and Will Smith to multi-year contracts.
Perhaps it was a testament to the work the Phillies must do this offseason in order to remain competitive in the National League East landscape, which is projected to be a tough stand for the Phils once again. But, if the team is contending now, perhaps there are some things that the Phillies brass can learn from the 2019 World Series.
In this article, we examine five things that the Phillies should take away from the 2019 World Series and its contenders: the Astros and Nationals.
1. Don’t be afraid of players over 30
Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Sean Doolittle, Stephen Strasburg, Adam Eaton, and Ryan Zimmerman were all major players in the 2019 World Series.
What do they all have in common? They all played in their age-30 or older seasons this year. Granted, Strasburg played in his age-30 season, whereas Verlander was in his age-36 season. There’s a little variance in this sample size.
Major league clubs, in the embrace of analytics and player performance, seem to have a more keen eye for players in their early to mid-20s because of their ability to improve and salary control. Guys like Scherzer or Verlander (and in this offseason’s case, Gerrit Cole) don’t come cheaply.
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Cole will likely be the highest-paid player on the entire free-agent market this year. Strasburg will command a healthy pay as well. Ditto for Anthony Rendon.
The Phillies, in recent years, have shown that same character that I described above. They were extremely wary to give Patrick Corbin that sixth year, which the Nationals did. No matter his performance going forward, that contract was worth it, and so was that sixth year, because they won the World Series. Perhaps that will change the Phillies mindset moving forward.
Comments from the Phillies brass, including both GM Matt Klentak and Managing Partner John Middleton, indicates the team will be aggressive again this offseason. But a tweet from Jayson Stark that highlighted the Phillies laundry-list of items for the offseason shows that fans could be in for a bevy of moves.
2. Don’t be careless
It’s one thing to make a bet on a 30-year-old because you think he will provide value for your team. But it’s another thing to do it just for the sake of “being aggressive”. The Phillies have shown a desire to add players through multiple outlets, including free-agency and trades, and they should use both avenues to mitigate the risk of pouring hundreds of millions more dollars into long-term deals for free-agents.
The team already has two 30-plus players: Andrew McCutchen and Jake Arrieta, and both are coming off injuries. We have no idea what this season has in store for them. Adding a free agent starting pitcher could very likely add another “high-risk” pitcher to the roster.
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In the early portion of the 2010s when the Phillies were contending in a five-year run, then-GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. pushed all the chips to the table, trading for Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, and followed those moves by signing Cliff Lee, entering his age-32 season, to a five year deal and a sixth-year vesting option or buyout that eventually cost the Phillies a total of $120 million. Lee pitched well in the first three years of the deal (only one of which the team made the postseason: 2011), started 13 games in the fourth year, and didn’t pitch again in the majors.
The Phillies ended up paying Lee almost $45 million for baseball that he never played.
While that’s the risk that you take when you invest in an aging player, it’s a risk that’s worth taking if you feel your team is right on the cusp of winning it all.
The catch? I’m not sure the Phillies are there yet – they have some more work to do before I think it’s worth taking on too much extra risk. But I don’t think they should miss out entirely on the elite talent available to them this offseason.
3. It’s hard to buy a winner
Looking back at past years, World Series winners include mostly home-grown players. The Nationals won with Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, among others. The Red Sox won with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. You could say similar things about the Astros, Cubs, Royals, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, and even the 2008 Phillies.
Free-agency and trades are designed to add-in supplementary pieces to help you win. That’s where players such as Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Chris Sale come in play over the last two to three years.
The only true core player on the Phillies who has spent his whole career in the organization is Aaron Nola. One could question the season he had, particularly toward the end of 2019, but I think he is still an elite talent.
I don’t like Rhys Hoskins or his approach. I think he needs a change of scenery. The Gabe Kapler style of drawing walks over all else has seemed to severely affect his production. In the second half of 2019, he hit .180 with 9 HR and 26 RBI, compared to .263 with 20 HR and 59 RBI in the first half.
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The only players in the farm system with respectable hopes of becoming high-level performers are Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard, and I don’t think you’ll see either of them in the majors come April.
So, while the Phillies have the potential to add some players via trade or free agency, I believe that their laundry list is just too long. And while John Middleton has money to spend, I don’t think that’s going to cut it.
On a more positive note, though, if the team makes the right moves, I could be pleasantly surprised. I certainly hope that is the case.
4. If you see a path to a title, take it
With all that said, the Phillies may have severely underperformed in 2019, and with a few changes in the right places, the team could be much better suited to compete for a title in 2020. If the Phillies believe that they are close enough to contention and see an addition at the deadline that would put them over the top, they should go for it.
The Nationals did so with several bullpen additions in 2019, and it paid off with a title. While that’s just one example, you could look back to the 2008 Phillies as more proof. That team didn’t stop with its core. Pat Gillick added Joe Blanton and Matt Stairs as key players in the World Series run.
As you remember, both of those players hit some very memorable postseason home runs.
The Phillies in 2018 were linked to Manny Machado all season long leading into the trade deadline. They tried, but eventually passed. Similarly, in 2019, the Phillies were linked to several high-performing bullpen pitchers. They made smaller moves instead. Why? Perhaps the team realized that they didn’t have the talent to make a playoff run.
Perhaps in 2020, after some checks off their “laundry list”, the Phillies may be in such a position. However, it will be tough to make such moves with few high-level prospects in the farm system. That doesn’t mean it’s not possible, though.
5. Don’t listen to the fans
Bryce Harper’s signing was highlighted by a press conference in which John Middleton mentioned a Todd Zolecki Twitter poll, showing that the fans wanted Harper.
Philadelphia Phillies
While it pleased the fans, that’s probably the last thing a sports organization should do. The owner should trust the General Manager to do what’s right for the team. That doesn’t seem to be the case right now, which is another issue entirely on its own.
I’d venture a guess that the winners in the last decade haven’t done such a thing.
Sports teams should not listen to fans when making moves. It can only end poorly. While they may coincide, that should never be the reason for adding a player. The Phillies will be in play for some top-tier free agents and fans have made their preferences clear. But, as I have already said, the Phillies should only add players because the team sees fit.
In summation, there are many things the Phillies should keep in mind, and several important lessons to be learned from the World Series this year. It will be an uphill climb, but with the right moves, the Phillies could vault themselves into the conversation (particularly in starting pitching).