3 Reasons Why Mike Moustakas Would Be Good Fit for Phillies
1. Affordability
The Phillies are making every effort to not exceeded the tax threshold, a feat the organization has never done. Just as Salisbury says signing catcher J.T. Realmuto to a contract extension “might take some time,” signing Donaldson or Rendon would move the needle closer to that threshold than what signing Moustakas would do.
“[Rendon] is going to be seeking big years and big, big dollars,” Salisbury said of the seven-year veteran, who is coming off of a strong 2019 World Series-clinching showing in which he slugged two home runs and eight RBI in the seven-game series. “Donaldson wants a longer-term deal than what I think Moustakas would get.”
Donaldson himself contributed for the Atlanta Braves this past postseason, producing a double, home run and three RBI in the Braves’ series defeat to the St. Louis Cardinals. After hitting only eight home runs and 23 RBI in 52 games in 2018, the nine-year veteran had a comeback year in 2019, slugging 37 home runs and 94 RBI, his most in either category since his most recent All-Star season in 2016 with the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Salisbury notes that if the Phillies spent the bulk of their “free-agent resources” on Rendon, for example, while he would be a “great addition” to the lineup, he would limit what the team could do where their biggest need is.
“… And that, in my opinion, is the starting rotation,” Salisbury said. “They need to go out and address their starting rotation and use the bulk of their free-agent resources (i.e., dollars) in solidifying and improving that rotation.”
Owner John Middleton has already said that he will not go over the luxury tax threshold so the team has “a better chance to be the second wild-card.” He continues:
“That’s not going to happen. I think you go over the luxury tax when you’re fighting for the World Series. If you have to sign Cliff Lee and that puts you over the tax, you do it. If you have to trade for Roy Halladay and sign him to an extension and that puts you over the tax, you do it. But you don’t do it for a little gain.”
While Rendon would significantly improve the Phillies’ offensive production, chances of both addressing and improving their starting rotation would be significantly hindered by signing him, and even Donaldson.
The organization would have to pay 20 percent on every dollar that they go over the luxury tax threshold. Moustakas has not yet earned more than $8.7 million in a season, and, coming off of consecutive one-year deals not exceeding $7 million, he surely would be a much cheaper option as opposed to Rendon or Donaldson.
2. Health
Assuming signing Anthony Rendon is off the table due to high contract demands, comparing the 33-year-old Donaldson with the 31-year-old Moustakas, the Phillies might be wary of signing the former due to his injury history.
While Donaldson played in all but seven games with the Atlanta Braves this past season, he played in just 52 games in 2018, and 113 games in 2017, due to shoulder and lingering calf injuries.
The Phillies are no strangers to signing star players who end up missing a significant amount of time due to injury. Consider left fielder Andrew McCutchen and right-hander David Robertson playing just 59 and seven games respectively for the Phillies this past season, among others.
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“You just don’t know if you’re going to get the level of health that Josh Donaldson had in 2019,” Corey Seidman said on the podcast. “He hadn’t been that healthy the previous few years. He’s in line, too, for a three-year deal potentially around $20 million per year.”
Given Moustakas, two years younger than Donaldson, would likely come on a shorter, cheaper deal, he clearly profiles as a more attractive signing for the Joe Girardi-led Phillies. Moustakas missed significant time in 2016 due to a torn ACL, but has played now fewer than 143 games in his three seasons since.
“That feels like there’s way more of a chance of that deal not working out then that would be if you signed Mike Moustakas to a two-year deal,” Seidman said. “There’s also the idea that the Braves are trying to re-sign Donaldson, so that might be difficult for the Phillies to even achieve.”
3. Buys Time for Top Prospect Alec Bohm
There is always a concern of the next Jim Thome blocking the way for the next rising star, such as Ryan Howard in the early 2000s.
Mike Moustakas, surely, would not come close to the impact the eventual Hall of Famer in Thome had. Still, signing him would not hinder top prospect Alec Bohm‘s playing time at the hot corner on a long-term basis.
“The reason I think [Moustakas is] such a fit,” Salisbury said, “is the possibility of a two-year deal allows you to keep a lot of options open with Alec Bohm and others that might come along. On a short-term deal, he doesn’t necessarily block the progress of Alec Bohm forever, at least substantially.”
While Bohm has drawn attention this offseason playing in the Arizona Fall League and overseas in the WBSC Premier 12 competition, he is still a ways away from taking the batter’s box for the first time at the major league level.
RELATED | Phillies: Alec Bohm dominates the Arizona Fall League
“[Bohm] needs to go to Triple-A and needs some more time in the minor leagues,” Salisbury said. “He could be knocking on the door later [next season].”
Even if Moustakas comes in 2020 and departs after 2021, there is still a possibility that Bohm may never even play the hot corner at the major league level. Several scouts and “good baseball people” that Salisbury trusts have shared with him their skepticism that Bohm “is actually going to be a major league third baseman.”
Salisbury says, “I don’t think anyone doubts that he’s going to be a major league hitter, going to be a major leaguer, a major league contributor. But, there are real questions about his long-term viability defensively at third base.”
Bohm committed four errors at third base in just 10 games and 85 innings in recent Arizona Fall League action. In 71 innings and eight games at first base, meanwhile, he committed only one error. This pattern remains true in Double-A action with the Reading Fighting’ Phils in 2019: 371 1/3 innings and eight errors and third base, as opposed to 93 1/3 innings and just one error at first base.
According to Salisbury, Bohm “could be a candidate to move across the diamond to play first base,” and he has also heard him “as a candidate to play the outfield”:
“First base would seem to be a stronger possibility, if indeed they were ever to make a position change. That all plays in, because Rhys Hoskins coming off a down year, he’s going to be looking to rebound in 2020. If he doesn’t and Bohm looks like he could maybe go over to first base some day, that could maybe free up them to think about trading Rhys Hoskins for pitching down the line.”
Over the past three seasons, Moustakas has a combined 87 doubles, 101 home runs and 267 RBI in 443 games. Clearly, there are many pros of signing Moustakas on an affordable, two-year deal, rather than signing Donaldson or Rendon to a longer commitment and higher AAV. Not to mention, Moustakas would not be tied to draft-pick compensation, if signed.
There is also the added variable of when Bohm is ready, and where, that come into play for the Phillies’ decision this offseason as they look to move on from Franco.
Time will tell on what general manager Matt Klentak and fellow Phillies brass decide.