Phillies: Three things they need to add this offseason
The Phillies have several areas they need to address this offseason.
After spending stupid money last offseason the Phillies will surely approach 2020 with a similar “win now” mindset. They have several key pieces already in place with Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto under contract.
Beyond those six players there are a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball.
Which areas must the Phillies address this offseason to avoid a ninth-consecutive year without making the playoffs?
Honorable Mention: Manager
The hot seat is burning for second year manager Gabe Kapler after failing to bring the team into a new era of winning. Pressure from the fan base will likely sway owner John Middleton to make the final say on the future of a manager many failed to ever embrace.
Kapler is 159-161 as the Phillies manager, which is exactly what this team has been for two years: average at best. There have been hot and cold streaks during his tenure, but the team has never reached the level of excellence expected from them.
Should the Phillies fire Kapler, they will likely have several high-profile options to replace him with, such as Buck Showalter, Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi, and Mike Scioscia, among others.
Members of the front office have connections to Showalter and Scioscia, and Maddon could be the best available manager in years. The time is now for the Phillies to turn the page on Kapler.
Starting pitching
Perhaps the biggest downfall for the Phillies was the overvaluing of their starting pitchers. Beyond Aaron Nola the rotation of Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Jerad Eickhoff wasn’t up to snuff with what the Phillies expected to see this year. Arrieta regressed and none of the young arms took a step up this year.
The additions of Jason Vargas and Drew Smyly weren’t enough either after the Phillies decided they weren’t good enough to add a top of the rotation pitcher.
The 2020 starting pitchers available this offseason are abundant, depending on what teams and players do with their respective options. Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish both have player options, though Darvish is not likely to opt-out of his lucrative Cubs deal.
Five players, including Vargas, have club options for 2020: Corey Kluber, Julio Teheran, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, and Vargas. Any of the four pitchers not already in Philadelphia would be some form of an upgrade over the current staff.
Gerrit Cole and Madison Bumgarner figure to be the tier one free agents this offseason. Cole is a leading candidate to win the American League Cy Young after a 300 strikeout season in Houston, and Bumgarner has a history of dominance in the playoffs.
Dallas Keuchel (who the Phillies turned down last offseason), Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels, and Zack Wheeler are other notable veterans on the free agent market. Ryu has a history of injuries, but he leads the National League with a 2.41 ERA this year. Hamels would be a decent number three on this team as a veteran who has been there and done that.
Wheeler’s ERA is creeping up towards four this year, but there’s a lot of potential in his arm.
The trade market will be another avenue the Phillies likely go down with names such as Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, and Mike Minor previously connected to the team in trade talks.
Expect the Phillies to add at least two starting pitchers this offseason to complement Nola, Arrieta, and potentially Eflin.
Relievers
Philadelphia thought they put themselves in a good place last season by signing David Robertson and adding Jose Alvarez from the Angels. Robertson, unfortunately, was hurt from the jump and may never pitch for the Phillies again after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Alvarez has quietly held his own for Philadelphia this year with a 3.28 ERA in 65 games, but it wasn’t enough to support the injuries to Robertson, Victor Arano, Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, and Juan Nicasio.
Neshek has a player option worth $7 million for next season, but the Phillies will likely cut bait with the 39-year-old after two tours through Philadelphia.
Hunter and Jared Hughes are also free agents who will likely walk after rollercoaster careers with the Phillies.
So where does that leave Matt Klentak this offseason when searching for relievers and hoping to break the free agent reliever curse?
Sean Doolittle and David Phelps are two notable relievers with club options that’ll likely get picked up.
Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Tony Watson each have player options they could opt to exercise or decide to enter the free agent market. Chapman would be the best reliever available in recent memory with 273 career saves over 10 years.
There’d be little reason for Chapman or Jansen to leave their respective teams (Yankees and Dodgers) unless they’re overpaid. Philadelphia could spend stupid money, but they’ve proven to be frugal when it comes to adding relievers.
Giants lefty Will Smith projects to be the best unrestricted free agent reliever available at this point with a 2.80 ERA and 34 saves in 62 games. The Phillies could use a dominant lefty/closer, making Smith a prime target.
After Smith there aren’t many other notable relievers hitting the free agent market. Daniel Hudson and Will Harris are in the backend of their careers and Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano, Collin McHugh, nor Sergio Romo will excite fans.
Look for the Phillies to make a push for Smith or one of the big name relievers who might exercise options while also dipping into the trade market. Alex Colome, Ken Giles, and Jake McGee are potential trade targets Klentak could explore.
Depth
It was evident going into the 2019 season that the Phillies were giving some of their young players one more chance to prove they can be quality depth pieces for the franchise going forward. All of those young players (Aaron Altherr, Andrew Knapp, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams) proved they can’t be relied on for a sustained period of time.
Throughout the season Philadelphia added Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Phil Gosselin, Brad Miller, and Sean Rodriguez (boo) to the bench, but it wasn’t enough in the long-run.
Bruce is under contract for next season and stands to be the fourth outfielder and power bat off the bench. Miller has been valuable as a utility player and would be a viable option to return with his bamboo next year.
Adam Haseley could play his way into a starting job in center field or be a swing outfielder, able to multiple positions when needed.
Knapp will likely be gone next year leaving a spot for prospect Deivy Grullon to come in behind J.T. Realmuto. If Grullon isn’t ready, the Phillies need to look at adding a catcher in free agency. Jason Castro, Tyler Flowers, Martin Maldonado, and Travis d’Arnaud are potential free agent options.
Martin Prado, Todd Frazier, Freddy Galvis, Wilmer Flores, Jose Iglesias, and Neil Walker are all potential utility players who could join someone like Miller on the bench.
Should the Phillies explore adding another outfielder, Alex Gordon, Jon Jay, Melky Cabrera, Matt Joyce, or Cameron Maybin are options. Much of this will depend on the future of Corey Dickerson, how the organization feels about Haseley, and Odubel Herrera’s status with the club.