Which Phillies starters deserve to stick around next year?
With the Phillies expected to upgrade the rotation this offseason, which starters currently on the team deserve a spot next season?
The Phillies came into the year hoping that the starters they had on the roster would be enough to supplant what was supposed to be a high-powered offense. While the starters were able to hold things together during the first two months of the seasons, things quickly deteriorated from there.
Among all 30 teams this year, Philadelphia’s starters rank 17th in ERA, 19th in WHIP, 20th in strikeout-to-walk ratio, 22nd in fielding-independent pitching, and 23rd in Fangraphs wins above replacement. Remove Aaron Nola and this is easily one of the worst rotations in the league.
The current rotation comprises of Nola, Jason Vargas, Drew Smyly, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin. Vargas and Smyly were brought in midseason just to eat innings and it’s unlikely either of them returns next season. Jake Arrieta should return for the final season of his contract after getting surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.
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However, Eflin, Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Jerad Eickhoff should be around next season. They have all been significant rotation pieces in the last few years, but none of them have established themselves as key members of the rotation in the way that Nola has. Aside from Nola and Arrieta, it’s anyone’s guess what the rotation looks like next season.
While the front office ignored starting pitching last offseason, don’t expect the same thing to happen this year. They hopefully learned what happens when you rely on largely unproven starters to carry you all season long.
Whoever is brought in will take away a rotation spot from one of the other starters.
Even if the team somehow doesn’t add anyone, at least one of these four will still be stuck on the outside.
Of the four, Zach Eflin seems like the biggest lock for the rotation next year. He has been in the rotation almost all season long with only four of his 30 appearances coming from the bullpen. Eflin’s 4.00 ERA is second-best to Nola on the team. He also leads these four in FIP, walk rate, and home run rate.
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From there, the picture gets much murkier. Perhaps an indication of the team’s thinking is Velasquez’s current presence in the rotation over Pivetta. Velasquez has a 4.89 ERA in 31 appearances compared to Pivetta’s 5.52 ERA in 28 appearances. Pivetta was also optioned on two separate occasions, further indicating his lower status on the team.
Eickhoff easily is in the worst position, making just 12 appearances this season.
He was the one who started in Triple-A when one person had to be left out of the rotation. Eickhoff hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-June after dealing with right biceps tendinitis and a laceration/blister on his middle finger. He hasn’t been an effective pitcher since 2016 and who knows if he can reach that point again.
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If Philadelphia adds one new starter this season, expect Pivetta and Eickhoff to be stuck on the outside. They could even add two, leaving Velasquez wondering where he will wind up. If they somehow add three starters, then Eflin would be out of a rotation spot, although it’s unlikely the team so aggressively pursues starting pitchers.