Phillies wild-card odds continue to fall as time runs out
Despite being the first team out of the National League wild-card race, the odds of the Phillies making the playoffs continue to fall.
At the end of May, the Phillies were riding high. On May 29, they held a 33-22 record, 3.5 games ahead of the second-place Braves and second only to the Dodgers in the National League. Their playoff odds were about 67% according to Fangraphs. My oh my how the tables have turned since then.
Even after picking up a win Monday over the Reds, Philadelphia’s playoff odds are now a dismal five percent. The Braves turned up the heat after a dismal start, going 55-27 since the start of June to take a firm hold of the division. The Nationals are the only team who have any hope of catching the Braves at this point, and the odds of that happening are just 7.4%.
Things don’t get much better when you look at the NL wild-card race. The Nationals hold a firm lead at the top of the race with 3.5 games in hand over the Cubs in the second wild-card spot. Washington’s odds of winning the wild card are 90.6%, while the Cubs’ odds are 44.8%.
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While the Phillies hold the next-best record after the Cubs, they hold the worst playoff odds of the teams still alive according to Fangraphs’ projections. The Mets, Brewers, and Diamondbacks, all have better playoff odds, despite worse records, at 13.9%, 7.4%, and 5.3%, respectively.
The Phillies are projected to finish with a record of 83-79, which would be a three-win improvement from last season.
This record would be a letdown compared to the hype from earlier in the season where 90 wins were considered not just possible, but likely.
The team is slowly starting to realize that their odds of making the playoffs are slim. General manager Matt Klentak, usually a bastion of optimism, made sure to emphasize the club’s long-term ability for contention in his latest comments to reporters. He considers the team still alive, but anyone watching knows where this team will likely end up.
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Fan optimism was high two months into the year when the team was firing on all cylinders. Injuries and inconsistency have sent the team into a tailspin, leaving them barely holding onto their playoff chances.