Phillies are unfortunately just an average baseball team this year
By John Town
Between their record, run differential, and other stats, the Phillies are one of the most average teams in MLB this season.
The Phillies are a maddingly inconsistent team this year, getting hot for some stretches before sinking back into another slump. This has kept them on the outside looking in for the playoffs although they have been in striking distance all season long.
Just from a cursory glance, the Phillies are treading water in the league. They have the 14th-best record among all 30 MLB teams and are tied for sixth-best in the National League as of Wednesday. This notion is backed up even further as you also dive into the numbers.
Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight set out to determine which teams and players are the most average in the league. As you can tell by this article existing, Philadelphia and their players are among them.
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Paine determined the most average team by determining which clubs deviated the least from the league average in win-loss record, run differential, runs scored and allowed per game, on-base percentage for and against, and slugging percentage for and against. Whichever teams had the lowest cumulative deviation said to be the most average based on Paine’s analysis.
Per Paine’s article, Philadelphia is the third-most average team in baseball this year. The Mets are the most average, while the Brewers are the second-most. The Angels are the most ordinary American League team and fourth-most average overall.
An average team needs average players, and Philadelphia has those as well. Paine determined the most mediocre players using wins above average, which compares a player’s win above replacement to the league average at their position and relative to their total playing time.
Among players with five percent or more of their team’s playing time, both Jake Arrieta and Rhys Hoskins are among the closest to average wins above average. Arrieta ranks eighth with 0.186 fewer wins above average while Hoskins ranks 14th with .232 more above average.
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This is relatively interesting as one would consider Arrieta’s season average, but not Hoskins. Hoskins has 1.7 wins above replacement this year with his defense mostly weighing that total down. He ranks fourth on the team in WAR, but the other productive players at his position make him look average by comparison.
Paine went on to compile the MLB All-Average team that would be as close as possible to a projected record of 81-81 and the average league payroll of $133,548,817. Zach Eflin made the cut for this team, which seems about right considering his up-and-down season.
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While we were hoping for a lot more from Philadelphia this year, we are unfortunately left with an average team this year. They will hopefully finish with a better record than last year, but it certainly won’t feel like they improved.