Phillies have slim pickings in free agent reliever market
Will the Phillies go back to the free agent reliever well after a murky history?
Free agent relievers have historically panned out poorly for the Phillies, as highlighted by David Robertson’s recent Tommy John surgery. The trend of faulty relievers dates back to the signings of Mike Adams, Joaquin Benoit, and in some eyes, the franchise’s all-time saves leader, Jonathan Papelbon.
This offseason the Phillies have several relievers set to hit the free agent market, notably, Pat Neshek, Juan Nicasio, and Tommy Hunter.
Philadelphia’s bullpen has allowed an average of 4.93 runs per game, just slightly higher than the major league average. They’ve not blown many saves (just 15) but in context, they’ve had just 44 save opportunities this year, the fourth-fewest in the National League.
If the Phillies are to take the next step in this rebuild and push towards a championship, their bullpen can not be highlighted by a pack of failed starters and inexperienced relievers. Leadership and stability, something Robertson was supposed to provide, is needed, and the Phillies may be forced to go back to the well where they’ve drawn murky water in years past.
Every unrestricted free agent who has thrown at least one big league inning this year is at least 30 years old. That’s just how the game works with the current collective bargaining agreement. Players aren’t hitting free agency in their prime, and the deal they sign this offseason could be both their first and last.
The average age of an unrestricted free agent reliever available this offseason is 33.97. If you take out 43-year-old Fernando Rodney, the average dips to 33.72.
Even if you examine the players with team or player options available this offseason, the youngest are 29, Martin Perez and Chris Devenski, both on player options with ERAs over 4.50.
The average ERA for an unrestricted free agent reliever with at least 30 innings this year is 4.14. If you remove the extremes (Felix Hernandez’s 6.52 ERA and Will Harris’ 1.72 ERA), the average ERA is still 4.14.
Here’s a closer look at relievers available this offseason who could help the Phillies
Notable players with club options
According to Spotrac there are 18 players with club options for the 2020 season. Here are some notable ones the Phillies could look into.
Pat Neshek
The Phillies have given Pat Neshek two free agent deals, the last one worth $16.25 million. Neshek, who has missed the majority of the season with right rotator cuff inflammation and a grade two hamstring strain.
Neshek turns 39-years-old in September and has a long injury history since joining the Phillies. While productive when healthy, will he be worth the $7 million option Philadelphia can exercise?
Neshek has appeared in just 50 games since signing his deal prior to the 2018 season. Philadelphia might take a flyer on him, but not for $7 million.
Sean Doolittle
The Nationals high-priced closer could be one of the more coveted free agents this offseason.
Turning 33 in September, Doolittle is working with a career-worst 4.33 ERA this season. He was recently placed on the injured list with a knee injury, which could explain his issues this year. Last year Doolittle had a 1.60 ERA in his second All-Star season, and since joining the Nationals midway through the 2017 season, he’s saved 74 games.
Could the Phillies lure another Nationals star to Philadelphia? Given the fall Doolittle has taken and his age, it doesn’t fall into the Phillies M.O. to sign him. Regardless Washington could very likely exercise his $6.25 million option.
David Phelps
The journeyman reliever has found tremendous success since being dealt from Toronto to the Cubs. In seven appearances Phelps has a 1.80 ERA for Chicago, nearly two points lower than his ERA with the Blue Jays.
A knock on Phelps is that he’s primarily a fly ball pitcher, something that doesn’t play well in Citizens Bank Park. According to FanGraphs, Phelps has shifted away from inducing more groundballs, which he did in his first six big league seasons. This year he’s allowing more fly balls (46.6 percent) than ever before.
If Phelps pitches in six more games this year (which is likely) his option grows from $1 million to $3 million. Should he pitch 16 more games it inflates to a $5 million option for Chicago.
Other notable players on club options: Yusmeiro Petit, Adam Warren, Brandon Morrow, Martin Perez
Players with player options
There are three relievers with player options this offseason and all three are very familiar names.
Aroldis Chapman
The Yankees star closer is one of, if not the, biggest names available in free agency this offseason. He leads the league with 35 saves while sporting a 2.35 ERA in his sixth all-star season.
Chapman has undoubtedly been one of the best relievers in baseball, even in high-pressure markets like New York and Chicago during the Cubs World Series run.
One hesitation the Phillies could have is Chapman’s domestic violence history, which led to a 30-game suspension. After Odubel Herrera’s domestic violence suspension this year, will the Phillies be warry of signing a player like Chapman?
One the field he’s certainly one of the best, but it would take a big seal of approval (and check) from the Middleton family to sign Chapman.
Kenley Jansen
The Dodgers closer has an $18 million player option for 2020 and a $20 million option for 2021. I’d be surprised to see Jansen opt-out of $38 million guaranteed after he missed time with a heart condition.
Jansen has bounced back from surgery, yet as a career-worst 3.59 ERA, which says something about his career. He’s still striking out batters at a high rate and has saved 26 games. If Jansen opts out the Phillies could show interest.
Tony Watson
The 34-year-old Giants reliever hasn’t had his best season, highlighted by a 4.63 ERA, but he has a long track record of success with a 2.57 ERA in his previous five seasons.
Watson has a $2.5 million player option, so we could see him hit the open market. He’s primarily a groundball pitcher and could provide depth as a southpaw in the Phillies bullpen.
Unrestricted free agent relievers
Spotrac lists more than 80 relievers as unrestricted free agents this offseason, but only 18 have pitched at least 40 innings this year. Here are three to keep an eye on.
Will Smith
Expected to be one of the hottest names moved at the trade deadline, Giants reliever Will Smith should cash in big this offseason. He’s making just $4.225 million this year and Spotrac projects him to earn twice as much per year in his new deal.
Smith has a 2.80 ERA in his first big league season and has struck out 79 batters in 54.2 innings. He’s saved a career-high 29 games and will be one of the top closers available.
Philadelphia Phillies
Daniel Hudson
The former Diamondbacks starter has found new life as a reliever for the Blue Jays and National this season. Since moving to Washington at the deadline Hudson has a 1.08 ERA in 10 outings.
Hudson will turn 33 before next season but could warrant a two or three year deal. He’d bring experience to a very young Phillies bullpen, though he’s made just one postseason appearance in his 10-year career.
Will Harris
Soon to be 35-years-old, Will Harris is having the best season of his career with a 1.72 ERA for Houston. He’s primarily pitched in the seventh inning for a very good Astros team and has walked just 11 batters in 53 games.
Will the Phillies, or any team for that matter, give a 35-year-old a multi-year contract? He has a 3.93 ERA in his last seven postseason games for Houston, so there is extra postseason experience the Phillies could hang on.
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Other notable free agents: Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano, Collin McHugh, Sergio Romo