Phillies: Breaking down the 2020 starting pitcher market
Which starting pitchers could be available for the Phillies this offseason?
The Phillies entered the 2019 season giving their young starting pitchers one last opportunity to prove they can be major league starters. Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff have all disappointed, leading to the club’s fall from grace.
All four have either been demoted to the minors or bullpen at some point this season despite having multiple opportunities to clinch a spot in the starting rotation.
While the front office focused a majority of last offseason on building a star-powered offense behind J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura, this offseason it will be all about the pitching.
There are multiple All-Star caliber starting pitchers expected to be available this offseason, whether through trade or free agency.
We’ve broken down who will be available and start with those who could opt out of their contracts to become free agents.
Player options
Stephen Strasburg
Stephen Strasburg could be the best player available on the free agent market should he decline his player option. If Strasburg declines his option he would be gambling the $85 million remaining in his contract with Washington, $40 million of which is deferred.
According to the Washington Post, “Strasburg is due $25 million in 2020 (of which $10 million is deferred), $15 million in both 2021 and 2022, and $45 million for 2023 (of which $30 million is deferred).”
Strasburg, who just turned 31, could make that money up in a new deal this offseason, but it depends on whether he wants to leave Washington and gamble the $85 million.
Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish has a lot of money remaining on his six year, $126 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, which he has not lived up to since leaving Texas. Darvish has a 4.50 ERA in 31 starts after making only eight appearances last season due to injury.
Darvish would forfeit $81 million guaranteed over the next four years, each of which are player options. He turns 33 this season and has an injury history, two things general manager didn’t touch last offseason with pitchers. It’s unlikely Darvish opts out given his age, injury history, and the money left on the table.
Players with Club options
Corey Kluber
Indians ace Corey Kluber has two club options remaining for the next two years worth $17.5 million and $18 million. Cleveland shedded Trevor Bauer’s price tag, saving the money to cover Kluber’s options plus the reinforcements their offense will need. Expect Kluber to be back in Cleveland next year.
Julio Teheran
The Atlanta Braves have a $12 million club option for a player who they thought would be their ace, Julio Teheran. After four seasons that included two All-Star selections, Rookie of the Year votes, and a 3.33 ERA, Teheran 4.03 ERA in his last three seasons.
A big plus for Teheran is his durability, making at least 30 starts in his last six seasons. Atlanta can keep Teheran at a comparatively cheap price, making it unlikely he hits the open market.
Jose Quintana
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Another Cubs pitcher who could hit the open market this offseason hasn’t had the same success since moving across town in 2017. Jose Quintana was a rising star for the White Sox when the Cubs acquiring him for top prospect Eloy Jimenez and three other players.
Quintana’s ERA is almost a half-point higher with the Cubs, creeping over four, than with the White Sox. To his credit he’s been very durable, making at least 32 starts since 2013.
The Cubs owe Quintana $10.5 million next season, and three-fifths of their rotation could be free agents this offseason. For that price it’s likely the Cubs hold onto Quintana, who can be a serviceable back of the rotation starter at worst.
Chris Archer
The Pirates shouldn’t have a big decision to make regarding Chris Archer this offseason. He has two club options both worth $8.25 million, a bargain for what Archer has shown he can be. Now, that’s what he has shown at times, but in Pittsburgh, he has struggled a bit, with a 5.01 ERA since coming over from Tampa Bay.
Regardless, the Pirates paid too steep a price (Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Shane Baz) to let Archer walk after a season.
Jason Vargas
The Phillies will have a decision to make regarding their newly-acquired starter Jason Vargas. Turning 37 in February, Vargas was solid in his first start for Philadelphia, pitching into the seventh allowing two runs off five hits.
Vargas has an $8 million club option, a hefty price for a 37-year-old fifth starter. Let’s see how Vargas finishes out the 2019 season before coming to a decision on whether or not to exercise that option, but you could go either way knowing what you’ll get.
Best starting pitchers available
Gerrit Cole
Perhaps the biggest name on the free agent market this offseason will be Astros starter Gerrit Cole. Since coming over from the Pirates Cole has a 2.87 ERA with 28 wins and over 200 strikeouts each of his two seasons with Houston.
Cole, the major league strikeout leader last season, is coming off another All-Star season that could notch the soon-to-be 29-year-old one of the games biggest contracts.
The Phillies project to have a top-10 payroll next season, currently looking at $124,738,462. Next years luxury tax is set at $208 million, so they have room to add another eight or nine-figure contract. Do they want to pay a pitcher that much, or do they even have any interest in Cole? We’ll see come December.
Madison Bumgarner
There was a little smoke surrounding the Phillies and Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline, but nothing materialized for either side. A big question with Bumgarner will be if he wants to leave San Francisco.
After winning three championships and cementing himself as a Bay Area legend there’s little reason for Bumgarner to uproot himself and move across the country. Little reason other than a big paycheck, something the Phillies can produce.
Bumgarner doesn’t need to chase rings somewhere, but does he want to help the Giants rebuild?
Veteran arms available
Dallas Keuchel
The Phillies were lukewarm on Dallas Keuchel last offseason and didn’t give him much attention this summer when the rotation was falling over itself. Why would they be interested in Keuchel when he’s another year older asking for a deal similar to the one from last year?
Unless Keuchel, who has a 3.86 ERA for Atlanta, emerges as the Phillies best option, don’t expect a heavy push this offseason.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Philadelphia Phillies
After pitching seven seasons in Korea, Hyun-Jin Ryu began his major league career with two 14 win seasons. An injury took him out from 2015-16 and he made just 40 starts over the next two seasons. Finally healthy, Ryu is a Cy Young candidate with an incredible 1.53 ERA and a league-high 273 ERA+. Ryu would join Bob Gibson, Dwight Gooden, and Greg Maddox as the only players since 1920 with an ERA under 1.60.
Turning 33 this offseason, Ryu could be a reigning Cy Young candidate on the open market. With a lengthy injury history and 2,000 innings on his arm since 2006 (just over 300 since 2014) Ryu has a lot of question marks surrounding him. Would he leave a championship contender on the west coast to join the Phillies?
Cole Hamels
Phillies fans would love to see Cole Hamels end his career in Philadelphia, and it’s something he’s publically been open to. After mixed success in Texas, Hamels has found himself again with the Cubs. Since the trade last summer Hamels has a 2.64 ERA in 30 games.
Turning 36 this offseason, how much does Hamels have left to give? The Phillies could probably get Hamels on a hometown discount for two or three years to write a storybook ending for one of the great homegrown pitchers in franchise history.
Four 10 win seasons averaging 100 strikeouts would give Hamels 200 career wins and 3,000 career strikeouts. Every pitcher with 3,000 strikeouts except Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling are in the Hall of Fame. With a career WAR already over 60, one final push with a second ring could give Hamels a push towards Cooperstown
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Other notable pitchers potentially available: Rich Hill, Zack Wheeler, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Jake Odorizzi, Ivan Nova, Drew Smyly