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Phillies’ gamble on their starting rotation failed spectacularly

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 26: Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks to the dugout in the third inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies on July 26, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 26: Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks to the dugout in the third inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies on July 26, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Another disappointing weekend from the Phillies starting rotation highlighted the failed gamble made during the offseason.

During the offseason, the Phillies did plenty to attempt to improve their starting lineup. Through free agency and trades, they brought in four new everyday players who all became the best position players on the roster along with Rhys Hoskins.

However, by giving all this attention to the lineup, the team left the starting rotation untouched. The team started the 2019 season with essentially the rotation they ended 2018 with: Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin. They were hoping these five as well as Jerad Eickhoff would be enough to support the new-look offense; that gamble failed miserably.

Excluding Sunday’s game, Phillies starters rank 26th among all teams in Fangraphs wins above replacement with a collective 3.9. Only the Mariners, Angels, Orioles, and Giants rank worse. Philadelphia ranks 16th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 20th in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 26th in fielding-independent pitching.

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Nola is the only starter with an ERA under four as pretty much every other starter has wholly failed to reach expectations. Also, outside of Nola, they are all getting worse as the season goes on. When the starters struggle, it only puts more pressure on what has been an average offense.

This weekend’s series against the Braves was just an example of how underwhelming the rotation is this year, particularly in the first two games.

Arrieta allowed five runs Friday night, the seventh time he has allowed five or more runs this season. After posting a 3.46 ERA in April, he has a 5.00 ERA since then. He is quickly becoming a burden on the rotation.

Eflin began the year as the best starter, but he has quickly fallen off a cliff. He allowed a career-high ten runs Saturday night in just 2.2 innings, albeit four were unearned. Still, he went from a 3.02 ERA in April and May to a 6.89 ERA in June and July. Fatigue is setting in hard for him, which will only make things worse.

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Pivetta is the latest starter to join the bullpen after being replaced by Drew Smyly, who was signed last Sunday. Pivetta is easily the most disappointing starter this year as many expected another step forward from him after showing some potential last season. Instead, his 5.42 ERA will toil away in the bullpen until someone else inevitably gets hurt or demoted back to the bullpen.

There isn’t much depth outside of that initial group, as evidenced by the Smyly signing. Cole Irvin and Enyel De Los Santos struggled in their spot starts. The best pitching prospects are only at Double-A at most, so they won’t be any help until next year. Unfortunately, this rotation core is all the team has at this point.

All this inconsistency puts a significant damper on the rest of the season as Philadelphia will need its offense to carry it to the postseason. That’s a tall order for a group that ranks below the league average in runs per game, but they don’t have any better options.

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The next few days may bring some support for the rotation at the trade deadline, but even then, it may not be enough. Expect starting pitching to be the top priority during the offseason after the front office left it untouched last year.

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