Phillies top five unbreakable single season records
With numerous team records likely to fall with increased power hitting and pitching, here are the top five single-season Phillies records unlikely to fall.
After struggling for an extended stretch, Bryce Harper appears to be warming up as the summer months begin. He just reached the 200 home run, 1000 hit milestones in one swing of the bat against the Braves on Friday. He was on pace for over 200 strikeouts, which would have surpassed Ryan Howard‘s mark of 199 for a single season.
Harper’s now on pace for 192 strikeouts, but the strikeout mark will likely fall in due time as players are swinging more for the fence than ever before. However, several Phillies single-season records probably will stand the test of time. In no particular order, here are the top five on this list. Note that the records are for the post-dead-ball era.
Juan Samuel: 72 stolen bases
Samuel appeared in 18 games late in the Phillies 1983 NL Championship season and burst onto the scene as a rookie in 1984. Utilizing his great speed, Samuel led the league in triples with 19 and stole 72 bases, the most by any Phillies player in the post-dead-ball era. Although Samuel never approached that mark again, he took 53 in 1985 and 42 in 1986. All told, Samuel swiped 249 bases with the Phillies and 396 for his career.
Taking a look at that mark, Samuel’s 53 steals second most by a Phillies player in a season. There have been eight seasons in which Phillies players have stolen at least 40 since then, led by Ben Revere‘s 49 in 2014 and Jimmy Rollins‘ 47 in 2008. If you look around Major League Baseball, no player has approached 72 stolen bases in a season since Jose Reyes stole 78 in 2007.
The Major League peak seasons for stolen bases was in the era from 1982 through 1999. Over 3000 bases were stolen each season except the 1994 strike-shortened season and 1995. Since then there have been only three seasons surpassing 3000 steals, and league totals were down to around 2500 over the past few seasons. The game is more of power versus power with stolen bases an afterthought.
Players are becoming increasingly bigger, stronger, faster, and more athletic. The physical tools will be there for a player to surpass Samuel’s mark of 72 stolen bases. However, unless the offensive mentality changed, the mark will stand. People love seeing the long ball, and players make big money doing so; therefore, Samuel’s mark will likely stand.
Richie Ashburn: 181 singles
Ashburn was an All-Star during his rookie season in 1948, hitting .333 with a league-high 32 stolen bases. He was an integral part of the 1950 NL Championship team and hit over .300 eight times with the Phillies, twice leading the league in batting average.
Never a power hitter, Ashburn hit only 29 home runs for his entire career. However, his bat control and speed enabled him to reach base consistently, spraying singles with the occasional extra-base hit all over the field. His 181 singles in 1951 is a franchise record for singles in a season. He did so while compiling a league-leading 221 hits, including 31 doubles, five triples, and four home runs.
Looking at what it would take to pass Ashburn’s mark of 181 singles in a season is mind-boggling. A player that bats a little over .300 in 600 at-bats would need ALL singles to reach the mark. A 600 at-bat season is difficult in this day when players are getting more days off.
Suppose a Phillies player leads the league in at-bats, which generally averages roughly 660 at-bats. If the player hits only singles, to reach 182 singles would require a .276 batting average. It would take a slap hitter, who hits for a very high average, to approach the mark.
Larry Bowa and Ashburn, for example, had nearly 83 percent of their hits as singles. If a similar-type player comes along and accumulates 600 at-bats, he would have to get about 218 hits for a .363 average to reach the mark.
However, today’s game is so reliant on power, that such hitters may never be seen regularly in the game again. Ashburn’s mark will most likely stand the test of time.
Ryan Howard: 58 home runs
Howard showed his incredible power potential as a rookie in 2005, blasting 22 home runs in 89 games, earning Rookie of the Year. The following season, Howard crushed Mike Schmidt‘s franchise mark for home runs in a season with 48, belting 58 home runs.
At one point, he was on pace to hit over 60, but tailed off towards the end, hitting just two home runs over the final 20 games. Howard had three more seasons of over 40 home runs and finished with 382 home runs, second in Phillies history.
Howard’s 58 home runs in 2005 are tied for 11th-most in a season in Major League history. Only one player in the league since then has hit more than 58 in a season, that was Giancarlo Stanton‘s 59 in 2017. Christian Yelich of the Brewers is on pace this season to tie Howard’s mark of 58.
Of the current Phillies, who has a shot, if any to reach Howard’s mark? The top candidates are Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper, but never have a realistic shot of ever passing Howard. Harper’s best season total to this point was 42 in 2015 with the Nationals. He averaged a home run every 12.4 at-bats.
Even if Harper can match that at-bat-to-home-run ratio, he’d need 732 at-bats to reach the mark. He’s never had as many as 700 plate appearances in a season and always draws a lot of walks, so Harper won’t approach the record.
What about Hoskins? He averaged a home run every 9.4 at-bats during his rookie season but tailed off considerably after the incredibly fast start. He also did that throughout only 50 games, not an entire season.
Hoskins could reach 59 home runs at 9.4 at-bats per home run in 548 at-bats. The number of at-bats is reachable in a season (he had 558 at-bats in 2018), but the home run pace seems very unlikely for an entire season. I bet that Hoskins doesn’t come close either.
Is there any player down the line that could do so? It’s always possible, but chances are substantially in Howard’s favor that his record stands.
Chuck Klein: 170 runs batted in
One of the best overall hitters in franchise history, Klein already holds the career franchise record in slugging percentage at .553. His 1930 season was one for the ages. Klein hit .386 with 59 doubles, 40 home runs, 170 RBI and a .687 slugging percentage.
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One could argue that his mark for doubles, RBI and slugging percentage will all stand, but I think the RBI total is the most likely to stand the test of time. With power and extra-base hits on the rise, Klein’s doubles and slugging percentage marks could very well be surpassed. However, his RBI total is likely safer.
Klein’s 170 RBI in 1930 is the seventh-highest single-season total in Major League history.
The top six all played during the same era, and 20 of the top 22 single-season RBI totals are from 1937 or prior. No player over the past 18 seasons has surpassed 160 RBI, the last two being Sammy Sosa (160 in 2001) and Manny Ramirez (165 in 1995).
The closest any Phillies player has come to Klein’s mark was Ryan Howard, who had three seasons of more than 140 RBI, topping out at 149 in 2005. The type of player who could challenge the mark needs to hit for a high average, play nearly every game, hit for power, and be a part of an overall high potent attack. Since only three players after 1930 (all in the 1930s) surpassed Klein’s 170 RBI, it’s doubtful that his franchise mark will ever fall.
Curt Schilling: 319 strikeouts
Schilling was a key component to the 1993 NL Championship team winning a team-high 16 games and dominated in the postseason, winning MVP of the NLCS. Although pitching a little less than half his career with the Phillies, Schilling racked up two of his three highest single-season strikeout totals. His 319 strikeouts in 254 innings in 1997 is a career high and franchise record for a single season, nine more than Steve Carlton‘s 310 in 1972.
Since Schilling’s feat, only Randy Johnson (1999 – 2002) has surpassed 319 strikeouts in a season. In terms of the franchise single-season strikeout marks, Schilling, Carlton, Jim Bunning, and Pete Alexander round out the top ten. Only three times has a Phillies starter reached 300 strikeouts in a season.
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With the era of power pitching and batters striking out at an alarming rate, one may think Schilling’s mark would drop. The question isn’t the ability of today’s pitchers to rack up the punch outs. The problem is that pitchers don’t throw the number of innings needed to reach those strikeout totals.
Aaron Nola is the Phillies best strikeout pitcher at the moment and likely to throw the most innings. He’s averaging around ten strikeouts per nine innings. He’d have to log 287 innings to reach Schilling’s mark. Given that starters generally throw every fifth game, that’s 32 or 33 starts for the season, meaning Nola would have to AVERAGE more than eight innings per game and fan 10 per nine innings.
That’s nearly impossible. At around seven innings per game for a top pitcher in today’s game, he would have to average approximately 13 strikeouts per nine innings, as a starter.
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It’s looking nearly impossible that anyone will catch Schilling’s mark of 319 strikeouts in a season.