Phillies top five career records that appear untouchable
Major League power hitting records are likely to fall, but here are five career Phillies records that are unlikely to be broken.
There’s no doubt that power is at the forefront in the current era of Major League Baseball. With balls flying out of the ballpark at an uncannily high rate, league and team records are likely to fall. Looking back at the history of the Phillies during the post-dead-ball era, we examine the top five Phillies career records that are unlikely to be broken. Since it’s challenging to rate which record is more untouchable than the others, they are ranked in no particular order.
Jimmy Rollins: 453 stolen bases
Rollins was off and running from the start, swiping a league-leading 46 bases during his rookie season of 2001. He stole 30 or more bases ten times and 40 or more bases four times, topping out at 47 in 2008. During his 17-year Major League career, Rollins swiped 470 bases, 453 with the Phillies.
Of all Phillies players during the post-dead-ball era, Larry Bowa ranks second with 288 steals, and Bobby Abreu is third with 254. Juan Samuel stole 72 bases in 1984, far and away the single-season leader in the post-dead-ball era, but ranks fourth with 249 steals.
Stolen bases are a lost art in today’s game. To put things in perspective, Trea Turner‘s 43 steals last season to lead the NL was the lowest for a league leader since Craig Biggio stole 39 for the Astros in 1994. Cesar Hernandez leads all active Phillies players in stolen bases with 76, a mere 356 behind Rollins.
For a player to catch Rollins, he’d have to average 30 steals a year for 15 years or 40 steals a year for more than 11 years. This is one Phillies record that should stand for the ages.
Chuck Klein: .553 slugging percentage
Klein spent the majority of his Major League career from 1928 through 1944 with the Phillies. He led the league in home runs four times, slugging percentage three times and twice led in RBI. His 243 home runs in a Phillies uniform rank fifth in franchise history behind Mike Schmidt, Ryan Howard, Del Ennis, and Pat Burrell.
Klein posted a slugging percentage of over .500 eight times with the Phillies and four times posted slugging percentages north of .600. Despite averaging a relatively modest one home run every 24 at-bats, Klein hit .326 for his career with the Phillies, significantly contributing to his .553 slugging percentage, easily outdistancing Dick Allen‘s .530, second in franchise history. Mike Schmidt ranks third at .527. Ryan Howard’s slugging percentage was .515.
One may think with power at a premium that slugging percentage records would be one of the first to fall. But with the increased power comes the increased strikeout rates and generally lower batting averages, greatly influencing slugging percentage. Take Bryce Harper, for example. Although he has averaged a home run every 18 at-bats for his career, his .509 slugging percentage pales in comparison to Klein’s.
What about Rhys Hoskins? In his relatively short Major League career, Hoskins is averaging a home run every 14 to 15 at-bats. However, a .252 batting average keeps his slugging percentage far below Klein, at .522.
It will take a player that combines bat control, high batting average, and high power for an extended period to threaten Klein’s mark. That’s unlikely to happen.
Robin Roberts: 3739 1/3 innings pitched
Arguably the best right-handed pitcher in franchise history, Roberts was a workhorse that hasn’t been seen in Major League baseball in several eras. He threw “only” 226 2/3 innings in his first full season in 1949 after logging 146 2/3 innings in 20 starts in 1948. Roberts ran off a streak of six consecutive seasons of 300 or more innings pitched, leading the league from 1951 through 1955.
To put in perspective Roberts’ workload, consider the fact that from 1951 through 1955, Roberts completed 182 games, 78 percent of his starts. Following his string of seasons with 300 or more innings, Roberts added five years of at least 200 innings, with his lowest being 237 1/3 in 1960.
On top of being a workhorse, Roberts pitched effectively as well. From 1951 to 1955, he had a 118-67 record, 2.91 ERA, and 1.078 WHIP while being named an All-Star in each of those seasons. He started to tail off during that later stretch of 200-plus innings, but he still earned an All-Star appearance and garnered a couple of MVP votes in 1956.
Steve Carlton is a close second with 3697 1/3 innings, followed by Chris Short, Curt Simmons, and Cole Hamels. The league leaders in innings pitched has been around 230 for the last 20 years. It would take leading the league in innings pitched for 16 seasons to catch Roberts. The likelihood of a pitcher spending 16 seasons alone with the Phillies is unlikely, and the innings total is nearly impossible to fathom.
Steve Carlton: 3031 strikeouts
Carlton enjoyed his finest season in his first with the Phillies in 1972. He struck out 310 to lead the league, in 346 1/3 innings. He topped all NL pitchers in strikeouts again in 1974 with 240 and went on to lead the league three more times (286 in 1980, 286 in 1982 and 275 in 1983).
Arguably the best pitcher in franchise history, Carlton fanned 3031 batters in 499 starts. His numbers are more impressive considering during most of his career; hitters struck out at a much lower rate than in today’s “all or nothing” approach at the plate.
Second on the franchise strikeout list is Robin Roberts with 1871 and Cole Hamels is third with 1844. With today’s pitchers racking up strikeouts at rates unheard of in the history of the game, one may think Carlton’s record is within reach. Let’s examine this using Aaron Nola‘s stats a reference.
Nola struck out more than a batter an inning last season, with a total of 224. This season he is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Suppose Nola averages 210 innings a season, striking out 240. With 593 strikeouts entering the season, Nola would need more than ten seasons at that pace to catch Carlton. Nola would be 36 years old at the time, and even the greatest pitcher in franchise history didn’t “average” 240 K’s a season.
The one thing against Nola and any other pitcher coming along isn’t their ability to strike out batters; it is the ability to pitch enough innings and have the career longevity to reach 3031 strikeouts. I say the odds are way against Carlton’s franchise record falling.
Mike Schmidt: 548 home runs
Schmidt got off to a slow start in his Major League career, hitting just .196 his rookie season with 18 home runs. However, he quickly became the premier power hitter of his era and one of the best of all-time.
Schmidt led all NL players in home runs each of the next three seasons and eight times during his career. He surpassed 30 home runs 13 times and three times belted over 40, with a career-high of 48 in 1980. His 548 home runs ranked seventh all-time at the time of his retirement in 1989.
When Ryan Howard put together seasons of 58, 47, 48 and 45 home runs from 2006-2009, there were thoughts that he could make a run at Schmidt’s mark. However, with declining production and injury-plagued seasons, Howard retired a distant second with 382 home runs.
Of the current Phillies, who has the best shot, if any, of catching Schmidt? Bryce Harper has 13 seasons to make a run, although how much of a run can he make? His 162-game average is 32 home runs. To catch Schmidt in 13 seasons, Harper would have to “average” 42 home runs, which likely isn’t going to happen.
The next possibility is Rhys Hoskins, who at age 26 has 71 home runs. He’s averaging a home run every 14.4 at-bats for his career. To hit 478 home runs to pass Schmidt, Hoskins would need 6883 at-bats at that pace. He’d need 12 seasons at 558 at-bats per season, cranking out 40 home runs per season until the age of 38 to catch Schmidt.
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Possible? Very unlikely, again to “average” that total means Hoskins would need a few seasons in the 50 home run range to compensate for likely significantly decreased output late in his career. The chances of that are slim to none.