Phillies: Time to go all in with an Anthony Rendon trade?
A Phillies megadeal for Anthony Rendon would make them serious World Series contenders, but is a rental worth the price?
The Phillies have finally opened their championship window after spending most of the first two months in first place. While still balancing between winning and developing young players, the direction of the franchise has been clearly stated through the early demotion of Nick Pivetta and acquisition of Jay Bruce.
If the Phillies are truly all-in, then they’ll have their farm system open for business this summer for the one and now only trade deadline on July 31.
Philadelphia has three primary needs going into the summer: a starter, a veteran reliever, and a consistent bat. The reliever could come in the form of a trade or simply the return of an injury-ravaged bullpen, seeing the likes of David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Adam Morgan, and Tommy Hunter all go down.
Phillies general manager Matt Klentak will also look for a starting pitcher such as Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, or Mike Minor. Each of those pitchers will command a high price point, but as stated earlier, the Phillies have gone all-in.
The final piece would be a consistent bat, something lost through Andrew McCutchen‘s season-ending ACL injury.
There are two holes the Phillies could address, and they both revolve around Scott Kingery. Klentak could either move Kingery to third base and acquire a center fielder or keep Kingery in center and add a third baseman.
So far Kingery has played above-average defense at both positions and his bat has become a mainstay in the lineup. With few quality center fielders who can hit expected to be available this offseason, the Phillies could target a big name third baseman that would take their offense to the next level.
Adding a superstar such as Washington Nationals’s third baseman Anthony Rendon would instantly make the Phillies championship contenders. Similar to the Manny Machado deal made by Los Angeles last offseason Philadelphia would simply be the rich getting richer, adding a .320 hitter with 30 home run power.
Which prospects could be on the move?
Like the Machado deal, any deal for Rendon would cost Philadelphia an arm, a leg, and a couple of organs. Not only would the Nationals wave the white flag midseason, but they’d also lose two of the faces of their franchise (Rendon and Bryce Harper) to their division rival within five months.
It’s hard to compare prospects from previous deals, but the Baltimore-LA deal for Machado was a five-for-one deal. Baltimore’s number 2, 9, 19, and 22 overall prospects came from the deal, and Baltimore’s farm system was not that deep before the deal was made.
Philadelphia would likely have to part with two top-10 prospects and at least two more top-20 prospects to pry Rendon away from Washington.
Philadelphia would have a serious internal debate regarding top prospect Alec Bohm, their first round pick from 2018 who projects to be a fast-moving, power-hitting third baseman. If Philadelphia is confident they can sign Rendon, 29, to a long-term deal then Bohm is certainly on the table.
Philadelphia Phillies
After moving top pitching prospects Sixto Sanchez and Franklyn Kilome within the division for Asdrubal Cabrera and J.T. Realmuto it’s clear Klentak isn’t overly worried about moving top arms. That brings in top pitching prospect Adonis Medina, who has struggled at times in his first season with Double-A Reading. MLB Pipeline’s 65th-overall prospect has a respectable 3.44 ERA but has walked 21 batters in 10 starts with a 1.29 WHIP. More recently Medina has succeeded, throwing seven shutout innings against Erie before giving up a run in the eighth.
Former top picks Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley, who is currently on the major league injured list, would also be up for sale. They’ve been projected to clash at some point in their careers, especially with Harper taking a stranglehold of one outfield position for the next 13 years. One,, or both, would likely go in this deal.
A pitcher lower in the Phillies farm system (Spencer Howard, JoJo Romero, Francisco Morales) would also likely be in this deal, along with a bat or two.
Washington has a young shortstop in the big leagues and one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball, likely taking out Phillies prospects Luis Garcia, Arquimedes Gamboa, and Nick Maton.
Philadelphia also has several young catchers, and if Realmuto is the catcher of the future, then Rodolfo Duran or Rafael Marchan become expendable.
You’d also imagine Maikel Franco goes in the deal to Washington to give them a player viewed either as a stop-gap until their next guy comes or as a high-ceiling guy who could thrive once out of the spotlight of a big market team.
Putting the deal together
The Machado deal made last offseason should be the baseline for Washington this summer should they move Rendon, a pending free agent who has hit .300 with at least 60 extra-base hits in consecutive seasons.
As stated earlier, if Rendon is likely to re-sign with the Phillies, than top prospect Alec Bohm is fair game. If Philadelphia isn’t ready to take that risk, then Bohm should remain in the organization as the third baseman of the future.
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Should Bohm be off the table, the Phillies will likely have to give up two or three top-10 prospects for Rendon’s services. Medina, Moniak, and Romero fit the bill there. The only sticking point with Romero is whether or not the Phillies want to deal their top left-handed pitching prospect.
One of Philadelphia’s two prominent catching prospects would also be available in this type of deal.
The Phillies also have several pitchers in the lower ranks of their farm system with high upsides such as Kyle Young, Kevin Gowdy, and Kyle Dohy. Gowdy, the Phillies second round pick in 2017, is pitching for Single-A Lakewood after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery.
Young, a monster on the mound at nearly seven feet tall, has appeared in just four games this year due to injury.
This would hurt Philadelphia’s ability to add a starting pitcher, but they still have several shortstops other teams could covet. By drafting Bryson Stott in the first round, Philadelphia has opened up their shortstops to teams such as Arizona in a deal for Zack Greinke or San Francisco with Madison Bumgarner.
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Regardless of who the Phillies would give up in this hypothetical trade for one of baseball’s best third basemen, it’ll be a megadeal that drives the team into October. As long as they can sustain the farm system and not dry it out like Ruben Amaro Jr. did, the organization should go all-in while the window is open.