Phillies rumors: Five relievers worth trading for this year
The Phillies could use an addition to the bullpen at the trade deadline this year. Which ones are available, and which ones are worth it?
The Phillies bullpen has had its ups and downs this season. Their relievers rank 18th among all 30 teams in Fangraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) before Saturday’s action. They rank 15th in fielding-independent pitching (FIP) but ninth in ERA.
Hector Neris and Adam Morgan have led the way for the club’s bullpen, but overall it hasn’t been the best. More likely than not, the front office will try to add to the relieving corps before the July 31 trade deadline. With that in mind, which relievers are worth considering for a trade?
Ty Buttrey
Seemingly out of nowhere, Ty Buttrey has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. The 26-year-old has a 0.76 ERA, 7.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 0.97 WHIP in 23.2 innings pitched. He ranks second among all qualified relievers in fWAR, fifth in ERA, and 11th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Buttrey pitched just 16 games last year after being traded from the Red Sox to the Angels for Ian Kinsler. He did well after a late-season promotion but has come into his own this year.
Buttrey’s combination of youth and success should make him a valuable commodity. The Angels ought to consider keeping him around, but they once again look like they will be out of the playoff picture. Plenty of teams will be looking for bullpen help, and Buttrey may be the best option out there come July.
With that, attractiveness will come a considerable cost. Buttrey will still be under team control through 2024 and won’t even reach arbitration until the 2022 season. Teams will be lining up to add Buttrey to their bullpen, and it will come at a cost.
Philadelphia would have to give up at least one crucial asset in exchange for Buttrey. Cesar Hernandez could be that asset, but that’s entirely dependent on how he and Scott Kingery fare in the next two months.
Ken Giles
“Hundred Miles Giles” may once again be back on the market this season, and a reunion with the Phillies could be in the cards.
Giles made a strong impression in his first two years in Philadelphia, striking out 151 batters in 115.2 innings with a 1.56 ERA in 2014 and 2015 combined. He became the team’s closer once Jonathan Papelbon was dealt, but that didn’t last too long as Giles also was traded to Houston following the 2015 season.
Giles couldn’t quite find the same success with the Astros in 2016 but had an excellent regular season in 2017. That changed in the postseason as Giles allowed ten runs in 7.2 innings, including five runs allowed in 1.2 World Series innings. The Astros still won the World Series, but Giles didn’t help much.
After a tumultuous first half of 2018 that led to a demotion to Triple-A, Giles was traded to Blue Jays. While he struggled at the end of last year, he has returned to the dominant form that led many to label him the closer of the future four years ago.
In 20 appearances this year, Giles has a 1.37 ERA, 1.37 fielding-independent pitching, 14.19 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.0 fWAR. His ten saves rank fifth in the American League, which is especially impressive considering Toronto’s 19-27 record.
Given Toronto’s standing in the top-heavy AL East, they will be sellers at the trade deadline. Closers are always a hot commodity, especially ones with a few years of control like Giles. His recent struggles may bring down his price somewhat, but the risk may be worth it.
David Hernandez
Another potential (albeit less fulfilling) reunion could be with 34-year-old David Hernandez. The righty knows a thing or two about bouncing around, pitching in six organizations during his career.
Hernandez originally pitched for the Phillies back in 2016 when the team went 71-91 under manager Pete Mackanin. In 70 appearances, Hernandez had a 3.84 ERA, 4.32 fielding-independent pitching, 1.500 WHIP, and 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio that year.
Hernandez is now in the final season of his two-year contract with the Reds, who once again are at the bottom of the NL Central. They made strides forward during the offseason, but not quite enough to contend with the rest of the division. This makes Hernandez and his expiring contract entirely expendable for the Reds.
Hernandez wouldn’t be quite the addition that the previous two relievers would be. That would mean he wouldn’t cost nearly as much in a trade and would not be as much of a risk. He could be acquired for a low-level prospect or even just cash depending on how his numbers look in July.
Hernandez is having a slightly above-average season by his standards with a 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.72 strikeouts per nine innings, and 3.57 walks per nine innings. His 2.56 fielding-independent pitching is the second-best of his career thanks to his one home run allowed in 22.2 innings pitched.
While Hernandez may not be the most attractive trade deadline option for the Phillies, not every team can land one of the top names on the market. Still, he may be worth picking up before the deadline.
Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy has been around for a long time, debuting for the Yankees in 2007 at 22 years old. His best year came in his second full year as a major-leaguer in 2011 with the Diamondbacks when he finished fourth in Cy Young voting.
As a whole, Kennedy has been an average major-league starter in his career. From 2007 through last year, Kennedy had a 4.12 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.281 WHIP, and 2.69 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 291 appearances.
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Given Kennedy’s adequate but unimpressive performance on the mound as a starter, the Royals decided to move him to the bullpen this year. So far, the experiment has paid off for them.
In 18 appearances this year, Kennedy has a 3.20 ERA, 2.38 fielding-independent pitching, 1.271 WHIP, and 11.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA is his best since 2011 and WHIP since 2016. Kennedy’s FIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio are the best of his career.
With how bad the Royals have been this year, Kennedy will almost certainly be shopped at the trade deadline. His resurgence should be enough to get teams interested.
On the other hand, Kennedy’s contract may lead to some reluctance. He is owed $16.5 million this year and next year before becoming a free agent. Philadelphia already has $36 million committed to just four relievers this year and potentially $18 million committed next year.
Kennedy’s salary could work either way for the Phillies. The Royals could pay some of his remaining owed money, saving the club luxury tax money. On the other hand, they could lessen the return to hardly anything by absorbing Kennedy’s salary.
Francisco Liriano
Francisco Liriano is another starter-turned-reliever reviving his career this year. After signing a minor-league deal with the Pirates, Liriano has been arguably their best reliever and one of the key contributors to the team.
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Liriano posted a combined 4.89 ERA in 96 appearances over the last three years. In a free agency period that saw even the best players wait months for a new contract, Liriano had to take a minor-league deal to find a team. He was able to carve out a role as the go-to lefty in their bullpen, and he has not disappointed.
Liriano has allowed just two runs in 22.1 innings this year, both of which came on a home run. His 0.81 ERA is sixth-best among qualified relievers, and he has 1.0 pitching wins above replacement, which would rank first among Phillies relievers and third on the team behind Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff.
Left-handed hitters have dominated Phillies relievers this year, while Liriano has dominated left-handed hitters. Philadelphia has a 5.49 fielding-independent pitching and 20.4% strikeout rate against lefties. Meanwhile, the left-handed Liriano has a 0.66 FIP and 50% strikeout rate against lefties. Adding Liriano would alleviate the club’s struggles in this area.
While Liriano has done well this season, he is by no means perfect. He has walked ten batters in 22.1 innings, 11% of opposing hitters faced. He has been fortunate with home runs with only 4.5% of fly balls hit off him leaving the park, well below his career average of 11.8%.
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The Pirates currently have the 10th-best record in baseball and are just three games back in the NL Central, so it’s far too early to say if they will sell. They have been skidding since a hot start, which may be a sign of things to come. If they do wind up trading away pieces at the deadline, Liriano will likely be one of the first to go.