Phillies top four 2019 MLB All-Star Game candidates
So far this year, which Phillies have the best chance of representing the team at the All-Star Game in Cleveland this July?
The Phillies have not been represented well at recent All-Star Games, sending the minimum one player in each of the last five years. That could change this season with the team surging and many deserving candidates already emerging. Which Phillies have the best chance of becoming All-Stars this year?
No. 4: Jerad Eickhoff
Jerad Eickhoff did not even start the year in the majors, instead starting back down to Triple-A. He reclaimed a rotation spot thanks to Nick Pivetta‘s struggles. Since then, he has taken a firm hold of that spot.
In five appearances this year, Eickhoff has a 1.50 ERA, 2.13 fielding-independent pitching, and 0.967 WHIP. He has struck out 31 batters and walked 11 in 30 innings pitched. Eickhoff has been especially effective in his last three starts, giving up just one run and eight hits in 20 innings.
Eickhoff already has 1.8 pitching wins above replacement this year, which ranks sixth among National League pitchers. This comes despite pitching ten fewer innings than Chris Paddack, who ranks seventh, and 16 innings fewer than Zach Davies, who ranks fifth. If Eickhoff pitched like this for as many innings as the WAR leader (Luis Castillo‘s 56.1 innings), he would have 3.4 wins above replacement and lead the NL by a wide margin.
Eickhoff’s case is undoubtedly hampered by getting a late start to the season. That shouldn’t become too much of an issue once July rolls around as he only missed the first couple weeks of the year. If he keeps pitching as he has been, he will have a great case to be an All-Star.
No. 3: Bryce Harper
The $330 million man should be no surprise on the list. The Phillies signed Bryce Harper to be a star, and while he hasn’t been the very best player this year, he has still been pretty good.
In 38 games so far this year, Harper has a .235/.381/.463 line with a 122 OPS+, seven home runs, 25 runs batted in, and 63 total bases. He leads the league in both walks with 30 (good) and strikeouts with 49 (not so good). Among qualified NL hitters, Harper has the best walk rate (17.9%), 12th-best on-base percentage(.381), 26th-best wRC+ (125), and 30th-best OPS (.844).
Harper made the All-Star Game last season despite a universally-criticized first half. He hit just .214 with 102 strikeouts in 94 games. He still managed an .833 OPS and hit 23 home runs, which is what ultimately landed him a spot in the All-Star Game. The fact that the game was played in Washington helped too.
Harper has a better OPS this year than he did last year in the first half. However, his home run numbers haven’t been as gaudy as he is on pace to hit 16 or so some home runs by the All-Star Break. The increased competition among NL outfielders could also make things harder for Harper.
On the flip side, this is Harper at nearly his worst with such a high strikeout rate. Even still, he is managing a high OBP and above-average OPS. Assuming he turns things around in the coming weeks, his case to make the All-Star Game will get a lot better.
No. 2: Zach Eflin
To pretty much everyone’s surprise, the ace of the Phillies rotation this season has not been Aaron Nola. Instead, that honor goes to Zach Eflin, who has been lights-out so far this year.
Eflin pitched his second complete game and first shutout of the year Saturday night against the Royals. He is the only player with two complete games this year and one of just eight in both leagues with a shutout. Considering how rare complete games and shutouts have become, this is quite the accomplishment for Eflin.
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Beyond that, Eflin has a 5-3 record, 2.47 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, and 5.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eight starts. He has allowed more than two runs in only two of those eight starts. Similarly, he has walked more than one batter just twice.
Eflin stands among the best pitchers in the National League, ranking third in pitching wins above replacement (2.0) and 10th among all players. Only German Marquez and Luis Castillo have more pitching WAR than Eflin.
Eflin is also tied for the league lead in wins and ranks second in walks per nine innings and sixth in WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and ERA.
Without Eflin and Eickhoff, Philadelphia’s rotation would be in shambles right now. Jake Arrieta started hot but has since cooled off. Nola had an extremely rough start, although he is slowly returning to form. Pivetta’s struggles have already been mentioned with Vince Velasquez also having some issues before hitting the disabled list.
There is something to be said for a pitcher who has not one, but two complete games under their belt this early during the season. It’s a rarity to see any more and could be what pushes Eflin into his first career All-Star Game.
No. 1: Rhys Hoskins
Rhys Hoskins is the Phillies best All-Star Game candidate by a wide margin. His numbers would make him a down-ballot MVP candidate if the season ended today.
In 37 games this year, Hoskins has a .285/.410/.606 line with a 164 OPS+, 1.6 offensive wins above replacement, 11 home runs, 34 runs batted in, and 25 runs scored. At this rate, he would finish the season with 48 home runs and 148 runs batted in, the most since Ryan Howard‘s 2008 and 2006 seasons, respectively.
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Hoskins is also over the leaderboard this season, ranking among the top ten players in numerous offensive categories. Among NL hitters, Hoskins ranks third in runs batted in, fourth in OPS, fifth in walks, sixth in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs, and ninth in offensive WAR and total bases.
Cody Bellinger dominates first baseman leaderboards, but he has played most of his games in right field this year. Excluding him, among qualified NL first basemen, Hoskins ranks first in wRC+, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs batted in, and second in Fangraphs wins above replacement and home runs to Pete Alonso.
It will likely come down to Hoskins and Alonso for who will start at first base if things stay this way.
Barring a complete 180 by Hoskins between now and July, Hoskins is a lock for the All-Star Game. His numbers are good enough to make him a starter so long as Bellinger, and his unreal numbers stay in the outfield.
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Hoskins is becoming more recognized around the league after appearing in the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Tour to Japan last year, and an All-Star Game appearance would complete his ascent into the limelight.