Phillies: Checking in on projected 2019 playoff odds
Over a month into the season, the Phillies hold a 2.5 game lead in the National League East. What are their current odds to make the playoffs?
With their 4-2 win last night over the Nationals, the Phillies climbed to 18-13. This win extended their hold on the National League East to 2.5 games over the Mets and Braves. Philadelphia now holds the fifth-best record in the NL and seventh-best in MLB overall.
As last season showed us, early season performance can only be taken for so much. This team is different though with a +18 run differential and 17-14 expected record. The Phillies actually can sustain this record, which would equate to 94 wins if they continue this pace.
Looking forward, what are the odds Philadelphia wins the division and makes the playoffs?
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Five Thirty Eight projects the club to finish with an 86-76 record. Philadelphia has the highest projected record in the NL East with they have a 35% chance to win the division. Philadelphia also has a 49% chance to make the playoffs and four percent chance to win the World Series according to Five Thirty Eight.
Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic about Philadelphia’s playoff chances, giving them a 54.8% chance to make the playoffs. The Mets are very close behind at 53.3% odds to make the playoffs. Only half a win separates them in BP’s projected standings.
Washington sits at 13-18, the third-worst record in the NL and fifth-worst record in MLB.
Despite that, Fangraphs still gives them the best odds to make the playoffs in the NL East. They have a 55.5% chance of making the playoffs while Philadelphia has a 51.6% chance by these projections.
If Philadelphia wins their series against the Nationals this weekend, then they will likely take the top spot in the Fangraphs projections. Washington has been trending downward since a 78.7% peak on April 18. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been on the rise since bottoming out at 37.9% on April 25.
It’s definitely still early and a lot of things can happen between now and September, but the Phillies are setting themselves up to be serious playoff contenders.