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Phillies: Should Zach Eflin be the breakout candidate?

By John Town

PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 07: Zach Eflin #56 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 07: Zach Eflin #56 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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Zach Eflin has been the best Phillies starting pitcher so far this year. Should he be the one considered a breakout candidate?

Coming into the year, much was made about Nick Pivetta and the impact he could have on the Phillies rotation. After making significant improvements from his rookie year in 2017 to 2018, many saw him taking another step forward this year. I am certainly one of those people.

However, Pivetta has not started the year well. In his first two starts, he has allowed seven earned and one unearned run in 9.2 innings. He has only walked two batters but gave up 17 hits, including three home runs.

In his most recent start Friday night against the Twins, Pivetta gave up four runs in five innings on one walk and nine hits. His bad numbers could be attributed to the steady rain early on during the game, but regardless he has struggled so far to start the year.

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On the other hand, Zach Eflin has been dominant to start the year. He only pitched five innings in his first start as a pinch-hitter replaced him. However, he made those five innings count, striking out nine Nationals without allowing a run. Eflin picked up the win against Max Scherzer in Bryce Harper’s return to Washington.

Eflin pitched well again Sunday afternoon, pitching seven one-run innings.

The only run came on a solo home run to lead off the game. From then on, Eflin gave up just five more hits, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out five. He could’ve come out after six innings, but Gabe Kapler left him out for the seventh, which Eflin finished with just ten pitches.

So far this year, Eflin has been the Phillies best starting pitcher. Pivetta and Jake Arrieta have both struggled while Aaron Nola had a disaster outing in his second start of the year. Meanwhile, Eflin has given every reason to excite so far.

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Eflin’s strikeout rate increased dramatically from 2017 to 2018. He went from striking out 12.5% of opposing hitters to 22.5%. This increase stemmed from a three percent increase in his swinging strike rate and a decrease in contact rate. Eflin’s 3.80 fielding-independent pitching and 4.02 skill-interactive ERA both suggest his 4.36 ERA was somewhat inflated last year.

Despite Eflin showing those improvements, he barely received any attention heading into the season. That happens when your team has one of the most productive offseasons in the league’s history. Maybe that lack of hype has helped motivate Eflin to perform early on this year.

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Things could quickly change, but right now Eflin sure looks like he could be a breakout candidate so far this year. Certainly more than Pivetta has.

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