Phillies: 10 keys to winning the National League East
The Phillies have a shot to win their first National League East title since 2011.
Through bleak seasons headlined by young players, washed out veterans, and coaching changes the Phillies are preparing to make a run for the National League East for the first time since Charlie Manuel was fired in 2013.
Philadelphia has finished no better than third or played better than .500 baseball in seven years, which feels like an eternity for fans.
Now with star power across the board, the Phillies have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs under second year manager Gabe Kapler.
Here are 10 keys for the Phillies to clinch not just a playoff berth, but a division title in 2019.
Gabe Kapler must prove he’s the manager of the future
The hiring of Gabe Kapler has been questioned from day one by fans who are skeptics of an inexperienced former player whose ideology heavily favors analytics. Kapler was booed at his first regular season game as the skipper and fans didn’t let up when a team that was 11 games over .500 at the trade deadline finished with a losing record.
Kapler prides himself on being able to adjust, and while it’s something he and others around him tout highly the fans remain skeptic. Will Kapler allow starting pitchers to go deep into games, will he use his gut over the numbers, will the lineup change on a daily basis?
A lot of the reasons fans questioned Kapler in his rookie managerial season will change in 2019, not just because Kapler will adjust, but because the front office addressed the team’s weaknesses.
Kapler has already said that the lineup will not change as often as it did in 2018 when he used 138 different lineups, excluding the pitchers. Five players from last year’s opening day lineup either aren’t on the team or likely won’t start:
- Cesar Hernandez (starting)
- Carlos Santana (traded)
- Nick Williams (not starting)
- Rhys Hoskins (starting)
- Aaron Altherr (not starting)
- J.P. Crawford (traded)
- Maikel Franco (starting)
- Andrew Knapp (not starting)
With veterans Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, and Jean Segura added to the lineup, Phillies fans should expect more consistent lineups.
Kapler must also show he has control over the clubhouse after last seasons collapse and the Fortnite “scandal” that broke out. Changes have already been made, including limiting video games in the clubhouse, requiring players to be in the dugout during games, and the consultation of 13 players on these rule changes going into the season.
With so much firepower in this lineup, pressure mounts on Kapler to put his players in the best position to succeed. If the players can’t do that, the hot seat will only burn stronger under Kapler.
The Phillies must stay healthy in 2019
Health is the key to any team’s success, no matter what the sport or the level of competition. Last season the Phillies were relatively healthy, though they did have some major bumps along the way.
An injury that was incredibly scary but might have been for the best was when Rhys Hoskins took a pitch to the jaw in the middle of a prolonged slump. After sitting out for a short period of time Hoskins came back and found his swing down the stretch.
Members of the starting rotation also dealt with minor injuries during the course of last season. Vince Velasquez suffered a forearm contusion after getting hit by a line drive and Zach Eflin dealt with a blister on a pitching finger.
Two key Phillies quietly played through injuries last year; Cesar Hernandez played with a broken foot and Jake Arrieta played through a meniscus injury that required offseason surgery.
Having Pat Neshek healthy to start the season is another plus for the Phillies after he missed over three months with a lat strain. Neshek, who is on the final guaranteed year of his contract is a critical piece for the bullpen as a setup man. If he plays well the Phillies could exercise his $7 million option. If they don’t exercise the option, then they’ll buy out the soon-to-be 39-year-old for $750,000.
Health has to be consistent across the board for the Phillies if they want to succeed in 2019.
Maikel Franco needs to step up under less pressure
Maikel Franco went from the savior of the franchise to a bottom of the order bat fans have gotten tired of waiting for. Many have accepted that Franco, entering his sixth season, is what he is, a 25-home run hitter who won’t hit for great average.
That type of bat at a cheap price ($5.2 million) will be welcomed as the Phillies number seventh or eighth hitter in 2019. Franco no longer has to be “the guy” who hits cleanup cracking 40 home runs every season. There’s no longer the ghosts of Manny Machado or Mike Moustakas hanging over Franco.
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This season is an opportunity for the 26-year-old to prove he’s the everyday third baseman who can help bring a championship back to Philadelphia.
Hitting lower in the order not only takes pressure off Franco but it allows him to drive in a ton of runs. The possibility of Cesar Hernandez and/or Odubel Herrera hitting above him at the end of the lineup means RBIs galore for Franco.
Franco is the guy at third in 2019 and there’s no major competition coming his way. Last years first round pick Alec Bohm is entering his first full minor league season and is still a couple of years away from being called up.
While the pressure of no direct competition and a lower slot in the lineup is off Franco, he still (obviously) must perform to the standard he has set for himself over the last five seasons. Anything less will be a disappointment from the organization and fans.
Odubel Herrera has to stay locked in for the entire season
Asking Odubel Herrera to be the player he was early in 2018 is a lot, but the young, electric outfielder must stay focused for the Phillies to succeed in 2019.
Everyone in baseball knows how Herrera rolls during a season. He’ll hit .320 one month then the next hit .100 with aggravating mistakes and errors on the field. Last season he opened the season in spectacular fashion, hitting .361 in his first 40 games. Everything went downhill after that when he hit .189 in the final two months of the season.
The nickname “Ohdubel” will stick to him every time there’s a baserunning mistake or a misplayed ball in the field that most minor leaguers could make.
The organization challenged Herrera publically and privately to step up this season and prove he’s worthy of the $30.5 million contract extension he signed prior to 2017. Including this year Herrera has three guaranteed seasons remaining on his deal with two team options following. There’s some security for Herrera with that contract and the answer of whether or not Mike Trout would take his job. However, the Phillies have used two of their last three first round picks on center fielders Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak.
If Haseley gets hot early in the season and Herrera struggles there will be clamoring for him to move up in the organization. Herrera also has to face Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr sitting on the bench asking about their playing time. Both Williams and Altherr have been highly touted by members of the organization.
Now is the time for Herrera to prove he’s the center fielder of the future. He has all the talent in the world, but he must stay locked in to stick around and not be the reason Philadelphia loses ballgames.
Vince Velasquez has to prove he belongs
Going into the 2019 season Vince Velasquez is on a very short leash. Despite entering his fourth season with the Phillies, Velasquez must prove this year, and early for that matter, that he can be a big league starting pitcher for a contending team.
Through 76 career starts, seven of which came with Houston prior to coming over in the Ken Giles trade, and 89 total appearances, Velasquez has a disappointing 4.60 ERA. He’s struck out 439 batters in just over 400 innings but is six games below .500 for his career.
This season Velasquez is viewed as the weakest link in the Phillies rotation having proved little if anything. For as many dominant stretches as he’s had in his young career Velasquez has had just as many struggles. Despite having a 2.30 ERA in May and a 0.95 ERA in July Velasquez finished 2018 with a 4.85 ERA, the second-worst of his career.
It’s a far cry from the optimism surrounding the righty when he struck out 16 Padres in a three-hit shutout during his Citizens Bank Park debut on April 14, 2016.
Philadelphia will continue to develop talent in 2019, but they are focused on winning now more than ever. Jerad Eickhoff, Drew Anderson, Enyel De Los Santos, Ranger Suarez, and Cole Irvin sit just an hour away up 476 for their opportunity with the Phillies. Even though Dallas Keuchel looms on the free agent market, I think the Phillies would be more willing to give a young arm the opportunity to pitch with less long-term financial commitment.
If Velasquez slips up in the first month of the season there will be more than a few calls for Velasquez to take a seat.
Aaron Nola has to match last years Cy Young campaign
Aaron Nola doesn’t have to win the Cy Young for the Phillies to contend, but he must continue to lead a largely unproven staff forward.
With so many unknowns in the rotation, Nola must be the constant all year. Even if Nick Pivetta takes the step forward everyone expects and Arrieta returns from minor knee surgery, it will be Nola’s face on the marquees and promos.
What Nola did in 2018 was absolutely historic, and most seasons he’d win the Cy Young. Nola had the seventh best WAR (10.5), seventh best WHIP (0.975), fourth best hits per nine innings pitched (6.316), and fourth best ERA adjusted (175) in Phillies history.
Nola’s 10.2 WAR is the second-best in Phillies history post-deadball era behind Steve Carlton.
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While Nola might not be able to turn a season just like last years, anything other than a strong season likely puts the Phillies short of the playoffs. His 17 wins and 25 quality starts went a long way last year, and thankfully this year some of those quality starts will turn to wins with a quality offense behind Nola.
Philadelphia scored less than four runs per game last year for Nola, the fifth-fewest in baseball last year. In the 11 starts, Nola made that turned into losses, Philadelphia scored one run or less in seven of those games. In the six games where Nola was credited with a loss, the Phillies scored just five runs combined.
Adding Harper, Realmuto, Segura, and McCutchen to the lineup will hopefully churn out enough runs.
Backed by a superstar lineup and an experienced catcher behind the plate, Nola should see success yet again next season.
The bullpen has to be as good as advertised
The Phillies have a solid mix of youth and experience out in the bullpen for 2019. David Robertson, who could quietly be one of the best free agent signings in baseball this year, gives them an established late-game arm. Robertson hasn’t had an ERA above 3.50 since his rookie season and he’s saved at least 30 games three times in his career.
Two other newcomers to the bullpen came over in trades this offseason, Jose Alvarez and Juan Nicasio. Alvarez comes over from Los Angeles joins fellow southpaw Adam Morgan in the ‘pen after having a very impressive 2.71 ERA in 76 games for Los Angeles.
Nicasio, who pitched two games for the Phillies in 2017 before being traded to the Cardinals, is coming off a rough season with Seattle highlighted by a 6.00 ERA in 46 games. He’ll be a middle reliever who could see about 50 appearances.
Pat Neshek also returns healthy and while Tommy Hunter will likely start the year on the injured list he showed flashes late last season. After posting a 5.04 ERA in his first 29 games Hunter had a very good ERA of 3.00 after July 1.
Perhaps the arm with the most potential in the bullpen is Seranthony Dominguez who went from a Rookie of the Year candidate to headscratcher last year. After not allowing a run in his first 12 games, Dominguez had a 3.95 ERA the rest of the season.
Rounding out the bullpen will likely be Edubray Ramos and Hector Neris, who have each had their rough patches in recent years. Neris went from being the closer of the future to a guy who couldn’t find the strike zone last year, resulting in a temporary demotion.
Ramos beat out Victor Arano, who had a terrible spring, for the final spot. After pitching with a 4.21 ERA in 2017 Ramos bounced back with a 2.32 ERA in 52 games last season. He’s a name often lost in the mix, but he’s just as important as the other arms.
There’s a ton of talent in this year’s bullpen and even more waiting in Lehigh Valley. With uncertainty remaining in the rotation the bullpen must be strong yet again in 2019.
The Phillies have to handle a tough division
No division got tougher than the National League East this offseason, that is if you ignore the Miami Marlins. Here’s a look at what the other three teams in the division did.
Braves: Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann
Mets: Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Wilson Ramos, Jed Lowrie, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jeurys Familia, Luis Avilan
Nationals: Patrick Corbin, Brian Dozier, Kyle Barraclough, Yan Gomes, Kurt Suzuki, Wilmer Difo, Trevor Rosenthal, Anibal Sanchez
Everyone other than Miami got much better this offseason despite Washington losing Bryce Harper and the Mets losing Jay Bruce.
Washington is scary once again as Juan Soto and Victor Robles aim to replace Harper’s production in the lineup. Having Trea Turner and Adam Eaton healthy could make their lineup very scary.
What really puts Washington over the top is their starting rotation with the big-three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Corbin. Few teams have a better starting-three, which is backed by two experienced arms in Jeremy Hellickson and Sanchez.
There’s always going to be doubt surrounding what the Mets can do simply because they’re the New York Mess. Adding a 36-year-old second baseman coming off a PED suspension to a lineup that’ll be without Yoenis Cespedes for the majority of the season and an injury-prone Wilson Ramos doesn’t sound like a winner to me.
Of course, the Mets have two fantastic starting pitchers headlining the rotation with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
Atlanta, the defending division champs, will remain a threat despite not making a ton of changes this offseason. They brought Josh Donaldson in early and reunited with Brian McCann, but didn’t do much else. Free agents Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel would be welcomed additions for Atlanta and could push them over the hump in the division after winning 90 games last season.
With 76 games against members of their division, the Phillies need to establish themselves as the class of the division. The Phillies have 14 of their first 17 games within the division, most of which are at home.
Scott Kingery needs to take a step forward
The biggest disappointment of last season was the lack of production from rookie Scott Kingery. In my opinion, the organization put him in a horrible position by paying him early just to sit on the bench and play a position other than second base.
Kingery went from being the top second base prospect in baseball to the next Dom Brown. There are reasons Kingery drew comparisons to Chase Utley as he worked his way through the minor leagues, but they weren’t on display at all in 2018.
Fans saw little of Kingery’s bat in 146 games last year with a .226 batting average and a .605 OPS. Kingery quietly had 23 doubles last year, third most on the team, and eight home runs.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia needs more than a -1.3 WAR from a player they invested $24 million in before he took a big league at-bat. However, it remains a question of where Kingery can get consistent at-bats.
Maikel Franco won the third base job, Jean Segura is locked in at short, and Cesar Hernandez is returning as the everyday second baseman. Kingery is a second baseman, and like Rhys Hoskins moving back to first from left field, I think Kingery would thrive playing his natural position every day.
That would mean either Hernandez getting hurt or being traded at some point. As a team looking to contend neither is an ideal scenario for Philadelphia. Perhaps if Kingery comes out hot to start the season and Philadelphia needs to add a starting pitcher they use Hernandez to add a veteran arm.
Regardless of how much playing time Kingery gets the organization and fanbase must see him take a step forward and prove he’s not the next Dom Brown or Cody Asche.
The stars have to align
Ignore Drew Butera and just marvel at the star power Matt Klentak assembled this offseason. Just like Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay all finished in the top-five of the Cy Young race in 2011 the Phillies have three legitimate MVP candidates in the middle of their lineup.
Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto sound like the next Murderer’s Row after hitting a combined 85 home runs last year. The protection throughout this lineup for hitters like Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Maikel Franco will be ridiculous thanks to the work Klentak put in this winter.
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Philadelphia needs all three of their superstar hitters to live up to expectations in 2019. That could mean 100 home runs between the three next season (40-35-25 isn’t out of the realm of possibility). Realmuto hit 21 with the Marlins last year and playing the majority of his games in Citizens Bank Park projects
All three should be All-Stars in 2019 and push for the aforementioned MVP. Harper has to live up to his contract while Hoskins and Realmuto play for their respective paydays. It might be asking for a lot from these three, but the potential for this lineup is beyond imagination.
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Clearly, expectations are high for not just this trio fo stars but the entire roster, and anything short of a playoff appearance would incite a famished fanbase. A lot of things have to go right for any team to succeed, but luckily the City of Philadelphia has a lot to look forward to in what’s hopefully the next great era of Phillies baseball.