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Phillies: Three bold predictions for an exciting 2019

By Matthew Landmesser

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 30: Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies take the field before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on September 30, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 30: Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies take the field before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on September 30, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 3-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 16: Nick Pivetta #43 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action against the Miami Marlins during a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 16, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

The Phillies have made moves to put themselves in the driver’s seat in the NL East. The expectations in 2019 are lofty, but maybe they aren’t high enough.

After an exciting offseason, expectations for the Phillies are much higher than in previous years. In the vein of the team’s “Be Bold” motto from last year, here are three bold predictions for the 2019 season.

The Phillies will have three 15-game winners.

Aaron Nola winning the Cy Young isn’t a bold prediction after finishing third in 2018, so I had to go bolder. Jake Arrieta and Nick Pivetta are primed for huge years, and the starters as a unit posted the highest Wins-Above-Average total in the league (11.8).

I truly think that Arrieta needed a season to get used to Philly, and his past suggests the same. In his second full year with Baltimore and Chicago, he posted his highest win totals during his time with those teams. I fully expect the grizzled veteran to pick up some new tricks going into this year, and being slated as the third starter will allow him to focus more on his craft, rather than trying to shoulder the load.

The Phillies have shown a hell of a lot of confidence in Pivetta, naming him the number two behind Nola in the rotation. In the first two years of his career, Pivetta has made the improvements necessary to earn that spot. He lowered his ERA, reduced his hits/home runs/walks frequencies, and increased his strikeout rate from 2017 to 2018.

Compared to starters, he ranked 23rd in strikeouts last year (188), and didn’t give up a ton of hits (163, ranked 25th), but had the 11th-worst run-support out of qualifying pitchers (4.09). Also notable was that Nola had the fifth-worst (3.79), and he won 17 games.

A lot of this prediction goes into the offensive improvements made, but there’s a large base to back it up. The teams with the most run support in 2018 were the Red Sox, Yankees, and Indians (Houston was sixth). The teams with the most wins among starters were Cleveland, Houston, and Boston (New York finished fourth). Cleveland had two 15-game winners, Boston would have had three if Chris Sale didn’t get injured, and Houston had three 15-game winners.

If the Phillies can improve their run support by even a half-run per game, they’ll see a drastic improvement from their starters.

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