Phillies 2019 season preview: First baseman Rhys Hoskins
The Phillies were able to move Rhys Hoskins back to his natural position, and the move could pay off big time in 2019.
The Rhys Hoskins-left field experiment went about as bad as the Phillies could have predicted in 2018 when they moved their promising slugger into the grass to accommodate free agent Carlos Santana.
Hoskins hit a career-high 34 home runs a year removed from finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year race, but his defense was historically bad. The 25-year-old had a -24 Defensive Runs Saved, the third worst in baseball according to FanGraphs.
Moving Hoskins back to first base was imperative for the club and an offseason trade that shipped Santana (temporarily) to Seattle opened the door for several corresponding moves.
With Hoskins now back at first base, the Phillies stand to improve across the board. Hoskins no longer needs to focus on learning a new position midseason and instead can do what he does best: hit dingers.
If the Phillies are going to win in 2019 and beyond they’ll need Hoskins’ bat to help carry them along. In a near perfect game split Hoskins’ batting average is 57 points better in games won by the Phillies and his slugging percentage is about 150 points better in victories.
Adding protection to Hoskins in the lineup will only do wonders for his bat. Being sandwiched between Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto in the middle of the lineup looks like a modern-day Murderer’s Row for the Phillies that should last for a long time with several playoff runs.
What’s Rhys Hoskins’ role in 2019?
Rhys Hoskins will most likely hit fourth in the Phillies lineup between Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. Having protection behind Hoskins will only lead to great things for the young slugger, who is coming off a 34 home run season.
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Despite his defensive woes, Hoskins could have played all 162 games if not for a crazy jaw injury when his own foul ball ricocheted back into his face, causing a small fracture. Hoskins had struggled leading up to that injury and the time off seemed to have reset his mind and bat.
In the first 52 games of the season, Hoskins hit .233 with six home runs, averaging a dinger about every nine games.
After the jaw injury and a brief stint on the disabled list, Hoskins hit .251 with 28 home runs in 102 games, cutting his games per longball by two-thirds.
Going by his games per home run after his jaw injury, Hoskins would hit around 40 home runs.
That’s certainly an obtainable number considering his raw power, experience, and the protection in the lineup.
Moving back to first base will also help Hoskins in the long run, both physically and at the plate.
Hoskins looks to play the role of Ryan Howard in the Phillies next championship run, and while he might not hit 58 home runs, his raw talent can certainly power Philadelphia the same way the Big Piece did.
Projecting Rhys Hoskins in 2019
While Hoskins was set to hit 40 home runs based on his second-half average last year the projections aren’t favoring him all that much.
The Marcel Forecasting System used by Baseball Reference is described by its designer as the most basic system there is, using age and the last three years worth of performance in its factoring.
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Baseball Reference is projecting Hoskins to hit .251 with 29 home runs, 28 doubles, and strike out 123 times. The 29 home runs are three more than what his career average would be if you simply looked at his career games and home runs.
Over 162 games Hoskins would average 41 home runs, so the MFS projection is very low for Hoskins.
ZiPS, a projection system developed by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski, predicts Hoskins will hit .251 with 34 home runs.
A repeat 34 home run season wouldn’t be horrible from Hoskins after he finished in the top-10 in baseball last year, but I think he has another level of power we haven’t seen yet.
I think Hoskins can eclipse the 40 home run mark, something the Phillies haven’t seen since Howard hit 45 a decade ago for the National League pennant club.
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A batting average in the .250s won’t shock me, but I will be shocked if Hoskins doesn’t come close to passing his career-high 96 RBI and possibly crack the century mark in 2019, assuming he’s healthy.