Projecting Jake Arrieta in 2019
Several publications and stats and forecasting systems have laid out their projections for Arrieta in 2019. Some base their results on past results and they are often tame projections.
The Marcel Forecasting System used by Baseball Reference is described by its designer as the most basic system there is, using age and the last three years worth of performance in its factoring.
Arrieta is projected to go 11-9 with a 3.81 ERA in 2019, both of which would be only a hair-line improvement from his first season with Philadelphia.
FanGraphs lists six different projections based on different measurements for Arrieta. The average for them comes out with an 11-10 record and a 4.11 ERA, which feels somewhat high.
The most favorable projection for Arrieta (that I could find) comes from CBS Sports, who project Arrieta to have a 13-9 record and a 3.70 ERA.
Having an improved defense both behind him and the plate will only mean good things for Arrieta and the Phillies in 2019. Adding an experienced catcher like J.T. Realmuto can lead to better performances from a game-calling standpoint and his ability to block and frame balls.
Adding Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and Bryce Harper to the field and moving Rhys Hoskins back to first will save Philadelphia games in 2019 and beyond.
With health and defense on his side in 2019 Arrieta is poised for a bounce-back season with the Phillies. His ceiling is likely to make the All-Star team and to win 14 games for Philadelphia as a playoff contender.
I believe Arrieta will finish the season with more wins than projected thanks to the improved team around him, though the rest of his numbers may not catch up to the win totals.