Phillies 2019 season preview: Infielder Scott Kingery
Scott Kingery struggled immensely as a rookie after signing his pre-debut contract. Can he turn things around and contribute to the Phillies playoff run?
Scott Kingery excelled in the minors in 2017, slashing .304/.359/.530 with 26 home runs, 65 runs batted in, and 29 stolen bases in 132 games between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Phillies felt confident enough in Kingery’s abilities to offer him a six-year contract extension, buying out his arbitration years. Early returns from that contract have been less than ideal.
Kingery started off the year in a super-utility role but quickly became the starting shortstop as injuries kept J.P. Crawford out of the lineup. In 147 games and 484 plate appearances, Kingery slashed just .226/.267/.338 with eight home runs, 55 runs scored, and 35 runs batted in.
Kingery’s struggles were rooted in his plate discipline with a 5.0% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate. His walk-to-strikeout ratio of 0.19 was eighth-worst among batters with 450 or more plate appearances. Kingery faced an 0-2 count in 154 of his 484 plate appearances (31.8%), the third-most 0-2 counts faced of all batters.
Among batters with 450 or more plate appearances, Kingery had the fourth-worst wRC+ and OPS. He ranked 13th-worst in Fangraphs wins above replacement. Kingery’s -1.4 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement was worst on the team and fourth-worst among all hitters.
Kingery’s defense progressed as the season went along, but it still wasn’t great with a .975 fielding percentage, -6 defensive runs saved, and a 0.0 ultimate zone rating in 887 innings at shortstop.
Kingery’s struggles motivated the team to acquire Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets at the trade deadline, but he didn’t provide that much of an upgrade. Cabrera is gone but Kingery remains. Can he find a way to contribute to the team in 2019?
Kingery’s role in 2019
Had Kingery been any other player last year, he would have been optioned back to Triple-A quickly. Based on his performance once he reached Triple-A in 2017 (his best numbers came in Reading) a second stint in Lehigh Valley could have been useful. Instead, Kingery was kept in the majors all year, likely due to that contract extension.
Mercifully, Kingery will not be a part of the starting lineup every day this year. The team acquired Jean Segura from the Mariners during the offseason, who is under team control through the 2023 season. Manager Gabe Kapler stated Kingery could compete with Maikel Franco for the starting third base job, but in all likelihood, Kingery will be back in the super utility role he started last year in.
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Even though Kingery was a second baseman during his time in the minors, the team insisted he could play multiple positions. He got time at second, shortstop, third, and all three outfield positions last year, although a majority of his time came at shortstop. We will likely see a more even split between the infield positions barring an injury.
In the event Kingery still struggles at the plate this year, we could see him be sent back down to the minors.
The club showed they were willing to do this last year with Aaron Altherr and Hector Neris. It would throw major egg in the face of the front office, but it may be the best move for Kingery’s long-term future.
If Kingery does not show at least some potential this year, there will be major questions about his future with the team. His contract makes things significantly more complicated as he is guaranteed $20.5 million from 2020 through 2023. It’s unlikely he will be able to be moved with any semblance of a return due to this contract if he doesn’t show some value.
Projections for 2019
Projections for Kingery are understandably low. Baseball-Reference predicts Kingery will finish the year with .236/.290/.365 line, nine home runs, 38 runs batted in, and eight stolen bases in 442 plate appearances, similar to his numbers last year.
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ZiPS projects Kingery to finish the year with similar numbers to BRef along with a 76 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR in 140 games. Steamer only projects Kingery to play 98 games (which makes sense for a utility player) with a wRC+ of 80 and 0.4 fWAR.
It’s hard to project the kind of season Kingery will have given how poor his first season went. Will he perform better now that he doesn’t have to learn shortstop on the fly? Or will his performance decay even further without consistent at-bats? It’s hard to imagine things getting much worse for him, but they certainly could.
The biggest key to Kingery finding success will be developing some semblance of plate discipline.
When you are facing an 0-2 count in nearly a third of your plate appearances, you are bound to fail. The deeper he can work into counts, the more likely he can get quality pitches to hit. That is the most obvious thing for him to improve on this year.
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Cesar Hernandez is still a Phillie through this year and next, so Kingery doesn’t need to show massive improvements right away. If he can show enough progress this year to warrant a potential starting spot, it may make Hernandez expendable after the year.