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Phillies: Why Bryce Harper signing still has some cause for concern

By Seth Humeniuk

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals waves to the crowd following the Nationals 9-3 win over the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on September 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals waves to the crowd following the Nationals 9-3 win over the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on September 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Bryce Harper just signed a massive deal with the Phillies. It looks good now, but what happens if things go sour on the back end?

Let me get this out of the way up front. I am thrilled the Phillies signed Bryce Harper. The second I saw the news, I jumped up, threw my hands in the air, and let out several joyous exclamations I’d rather not repeat. Harper immediately makes the team a World Series contender– although they probably need some more moves to win it. He’s a star in this league, and he’s going to be for seven, maybe eight more years. But he’s signed for 13.

Harper signed for 13 years and 330 million dollars. It is the most money ever given out to a baseball player. The problem for me is, he’s signed until he turns 38 years old. At some point, it’s very likely that the Phillies will be stuck paying $25 million a year for a severely declining player.

Harper could simply retire when he starts to really decline, or he could pull a Cliff Lee, and overstay his welcome to pocket the cash. The deal also includes a full no-trade clause, making it that much harder for the team to move him if he doesn’t work out. In all likelihood, this means he will retire a Phillie.

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Right now, this is a very good deal for the Phillies. Harper is a superstar, a top five player in the sport, with a career slash line of .279/.388/.512, 184 homers, and a 27.4 career WAR. The $25 million per year is high, but Manny Machado just got $30 million per year, so they could have done worse. It should make the club a World Series contender for years to come, and there’s a very good chance it will be a key move in bringing a title (or titles) to Philadelphia.

As excited as I am about this deal, it’s important to look at both the good and bad aspects of it. Harper didn’t have a stellar year last year. He batted .249 and was only worth 1.3 wins above replacement.

Last year was most likely an aberration, but what if it’s not? That’s the risk you always take with contracts like this.

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Harper has also been boom or bust in the postseason. He had a great NLDS in 2014 but has been terrible otherwise. He batted .294 with three homers and four RBI in that aforementioned series against the Giants, but in his other three series, he’s batted a combined .186 with two homers and six runs batted in. Oh yeah, and his team has lost all four of his postseason series.

I’ll be curious to see how we look back on this deal in the year 2031, which is when this contract expires. If Harper performs anywhere near how he performed in Washington, we’ll most likely remember this as one of the greatest moves in Phillies history.

dark. Next. Power, backbone what Harper brings to lineup

However, if Harper for some reason or other doesn’t live up to his potential, or suffers an early or steep decline in his 30s, it could be a deal that hamstrings the team.

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