Looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2012, the Phillies need to clean up the weakest part of their game: defense.
The more numbers I go through from the 2018 season, the more stunned I am that the Phillies won 80 games. They were one win shy of winning half their games! The one aspect of their game that has been a problem this entire decade has been their defense. More specifically, their infield.
After Philadelphia’s incredible run of playoff appearances from 2007-2011, the infield has been in defensive disarray since parting with “The Man” Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Yes, the Phillies have looked bad defensively, pushing us to the brink of madness. However, the numbers suggest something else: the Phillies have been HISTORICALLY bad on defense, with 2018 being “the grand-daddy of them all.”
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a statistic that measures the number of runs a player saves their team when compared to Baseball Information Solutions (BIS) data. BIS data gives each play a percentage of being converted: if converting a play with a 60% chance, the player gets +0.4; if they don’t, the player gets -0.6. That score then gets adjusted for how many runs the plays made are worth, evaluating defense for more than just Assists, Errors, and Put-outs. The average for both individual players and the league is zero.
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The 2018 Phillies had a team DRS of -132, by far the worst in the league. The next closest? The 47-win Baltimore Orioles with -104. That means their defense was responsible for costing them 132 runs more than the average team. Not only is that the worst DRS level in the league, but it’s also the worst DRS level ever! Only the 2005 Yankees were even close with-113. As I said in the beginning, how did this team win 80 games?!
Just for kicks, the Phillies haven’t had a positive DRS score since 2010, over which time the defense has cost over 500 runs above average. So for the past nine seasons, their defense has not backed up their pitching. A lot of that has to do with the infield, who has been circling the drain since parting with their two borderline Hall of Fame middle infielders.
Rhys Hoskin numbers and the first base position are going to be excluded from the individual numbers, because Carlos Santana actually did a decent job, and Rhys played left field (“played” is a generous word). Santana was one of two position players with a positive DRS score (Aaron Altherr the other).
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The other infielders, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, need to reflect on how poorly they performed on the diamond. Out of the 22 second basemen who played over 100 games, Cesar ranked last in DRS with -12. Out of the 20 third basemen who played over 100 games, Franco finished 18th, also with -12. Kingery finished 19th out of 24 shortstops who played 100 or more games with a DRS of -6, but with the addition of Jean Segura (10th, +5,) Kingery won’t be pigeon-holed into that role.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic wrote about the impact that Bobby Dickerson has already made on the infielders (subscription required).
Dickerson has incorporated new drills to force players to “make the routine look routine.” One of these drills even includes the players wearing softball masks, so that the players watch the ball the entire time into their hands, without worrying about their face.
If the Phillies have another dismal defensive season, I’d be more worried about a riot from the pitching staff, considering the starters had the highest Wins Above Average (WAA) in the league at 11.9. If the Phillies can win 80 games with the worst defense in history, how many will they win with just an average defense?