After playing the second half of 2018 with a broken foot, Cesar Hernandez will thrive in the leadoff role in 2019 for the Phillies, with a backing that he’s never had before.
Batting leadoff for the Phillies is a revered position, with the heralded names of Richie Ashburn, Lenny Dykstra, and Jimmy Rollins in the minds of fans from every generation. Behind each of them, in the run-producing spot, there was a slugger just waiting to knock them in.
Ashburn had Del Ennis with eight seasons with 20+ home runs and 95+ RBIs. Dykstra had John Kruk and Darren Daulton leading the Phillies to the ’93 World Series. Rollins, the 2007 MVP/WS Champ/Silver Slugger, had the devastating trio of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell who combined for 336 RBIs.
In the four seasons that Cesar Hernandez has been the starting second baseman, not one player has hit above 100 RBIs, and only once (Rhys Hoskins, ’18) did anyone hit above 90. Heck, I’ll go one further. Only five players TOTAL from 2015-18 have hit more than 70 RBIs in a season, and one of them was a 35-year-old Howard. No wonder we’ve had four straight losing seasons (0.432 win percentage).
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And yet, this year feels different. Ignoring all the talk of Machado/Harper, and focusing on the Realmuto/Segura trades and the development of their homegrown slugger in Hoskins, my eyes are set squarely on Cesar.
Jean Segura, my bet to bat second, comes off an All-Star year where he batted above .300 for the third straight year. Any guess which qualifying Phillie hit over .300 the last four years? None. He also has three years with over 170 hits, and even finish 2018 one RBI shy of tying his career high, while having 51 fewer at-bats. And the best part about him? Strikeouts, or lack thereof. In a baseball world where strikeouts are glossed over as a part of a hitter’s repertoire, Segura has only had one season with over 100 strikeouts, when he had 101 in 2016.
Every time I talk about J.T. Realmuto, I feel like I have to start it off with the phrase “best catcher in baseball.” A bonafide stud, he led all catchers in seven different categories, including batting average, doubles, hits, and OPS, while also finishing third in RBIs and fourth in home runs.
Behind the plate, he has ranked top five in caught stealing percentage three out of the last four years, throwing out 38% of stealing attempts. My favorite aspect of Realmuto’s game? His offense travels. His home/away splits are remarkable, even given that Marlins Park is not the most favorable hitter’s park.
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His batting average is 26% better on the road in his career, and a 25% increase in OPS, with 15 more home runs and 31 more RBIs. I have a hunch that they’ll put Realmuto in behind Rhys at the five-hole, but that all could change in the next few weeks (cough, cough Harper).
As many hitters as the Phillies have added, Cesar himself is who this lineup hinges upon. Yes, last half of the season, he played injured. While that led to a spike in strikeouts up to 25 percent of his at-bats, he increased his walk percentage by three percent.
That may not seem to be a major deal on the surface, but in a year where he played through injury, and had limited production behind him, he managed to increase his walks, home runs, and run totals.
Between the 2016 and 2017 season, Cesar demonstrated an increase in production, with more runs, home runs, and doubles in 36 fewer at-bats, while maintaining the same average (.294).
Anticipating that Hernandez returns to form at the plate hitting around .300, brings his new-found discipline with him, and sprinkles in a bit of that power he flashed last season, this could be a career year for Hernandez.