An early look at Phillies on 2020 Hall of Fame ballot

With the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class now decided, let’s take an early look at Phillies who will be on the 2020 ballot.

For the second year in a row, the Phillies will be sending a former player to the Baseball Hall of Fame as Roy Halladay will be posthumously inducted this year. His family opted to have him wear a blank cap on his plaque, as to not disrespect Toronto or Philadelphia, both of which he loved playing in.

With this year’s voting now in the books, it’s a good time to look forward to the 2020 ballot. Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen, and Billy Wagner will return to the ballot while Bobby Abreu, Cliff Lee, and Raul Ibanez will be eligible for the first time. Each has their own arguments for why and why not they should be in Cooperstown.

As I evaluate each player’s case, I will make use of the Jaffe WAR Score System (JAWS). This system, developed by Jay Jaffe while at Baseball Prospectus in 2004, combines a player’s career and seven-year peak wins above replacement to decide if they should be in the Hall of Fame. A player is often compared to the average Hall of Famer at their position as well as other Hall of Famers at the position.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s dive into the Hall of Fame cases for former Phillies who could be on the 2020 ballot.

Raul Ibanez

By the time Ibanez got to Philadelphia, he already had plenty of major-league experience under his belt. His career started off unspectacularly, failing to eclipse 100 games played or an OPS+ over 100 until 2001, six seasons and two teams into his major-league career.

In the first 12 years of his career, Ibanez had a .286/.346/.472 line, 113 OPS+, 182 home runs, 794 runs batted in, and 2261 total bases. He finished 21st in MVP voting in 2006 and 20th in 2008.

Ibanez earned the first All-Star appearance of his career upon reaching Philadelphia in 2009, posting career-highs in home runs (34), OPS (.799), and OPS+ (132). He finished his three seasons in Philadelphia with 70 home runs, 260 runs batted in, and a .798 OPS.

Ibanez rounded out his career bouncing around the league, spending time with the Yankees, Mariners, Angels, and Royals. Altogether, Ibanez finished his 19-year major-league career with 2161 games played, 2034 hits, 305 home runs, 1207 runs batted in, a .272/.335/.465 line, and 111 OPS+.

Perhaps the best thing Ibanez has going for him is that he eclipsed the 300 home run and 2000 hit club. Old-school voters tend to value these benchmarks heavily, which could offer a bump in votes when the full results come out. The fact that he remained an effective hitter well into his 30s also helps his case.

On the other hand, Ibanez ranks poorly in JAWS. His 20.4 career WAR, 20.1 seven-year peak WAR, and 20.2 JAWS all rank well below the average Hall of Fame left fielder. Ibanez ranks lower in JAWS than Monte Irvin, the lowest-ranked Hall of Fame left fielder who spent most of his career in the Negro Leagues.

Expect Ibanez to receive at least some Hall of Fame votes, especially from older voters who don’t publish their ballots. He likely won’t get much support from newer voters who tend to value JAWS and WAR. Given this, it’s highly unlikely Ibanez winds up in the Hall of Fame and questionable if he even makes to another year of voting.

Cliff Lee

Lee didn’t show much as a major leaguer until his fourth season in the bigs, finishing fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005 with the Indians. After two more years of struggles, he broke out in 2008, earning his first All-Star appearance and winning the AL Cy Young as he led the league in wins (22), win-loss percentage (.880), ERA (2.54), shutouts (two), ERA+ (167), fielding-independent pitching (2.83), home runs per nine innings (0.5), and walks per nine (1.4).

Lee was traded to Philadelphia at the 2009 trade deadline, propelling the team to their second straight World Series appearance. After the season, he was traded to Mariners, who then traded him to the Rangers, who went on the lose the World Series to the Giants.

Lee returned to the Phillies in the 2010-11 offseason, completing the “Phour Aces” rotation. He earned two more All-Star appearances, finished third in Cy Young voting in 2011, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 2013 as a Phillie.

In five seasons with the Phillies, he had a 2.94 ERA, 48-34 record, 12 complete games, eight shutouts, 132 ERA+, 813 strikeouts, and 124 walks. Over his entire 13-year career, he had a 3.52 ERA, 143-91 record, 29 complete games, 12 shutouts, 118 ERA+, 1824 strikeouts, and 464 walks. He earned four All-Star appearances and won one Cy Young and ERA title.

The biggest knock against Lee’s career is its length. He only appeared in 13 major-league seasons and was really only a full-time major-leaguer for 11 of them. A left common flexor tendon tear ended his career early in 2015, robbing him of a few more good seasons.

Due to his relatively short career compared to other Hall of Famers, he doesn’t rank well in JAWS. An average Hall of Fame starting pitcher has 73.4 career WAR, 50.1 seven-year peak WAR, and 61.8 JAWS. Lee only has 43.5, 39.8, and 41.7, respectively.

Lee’s most similar pitchers according to Baseball Reference include Roy Oswalt, who was just eliminated from Hall of Fame consideration in his first year of eligibility. He received only four votes for similar flaws that Lee’s career has. Given this, Lee may not be long for eligibility.

Lee was one of the best players from some of the best years of Phillies baseball, but his career may just not have enough to warrant induction into the Hall of Fame.

Bobby Abreu

Abreu’s Hall of Fame case is going to be one of the more popular storylines surrounding next year’s voting. He may be the prototypical “Hall of Very Good” candidate.

Abreu’s career as a Phillie came during a very forgettable time of the franchise’s history. In nine years from 1998 to 2006, he had a .303/.416/.513 line, 139 OPS+, 195 home runs, 814 runs batted in, and 1474 hits. He made two All-Star teams in the latter stages of his Philadelphia career, winning the Home Run Derby in 2005.

Abreu remained a productive late into his career, finishing with an OPS+ above 100 all the way until his age-38 season in 2012. In 18 years, Abreu racked up 2470 hits, 288 home runs, 1363 runs batted in, and 400 stolen bases while maintaining a .291/.395/.475 line and 128 OPS+.

When looking at Abreu’s standard statistics, his case holds some legitimacy. He cleared the 2000-hit threshold and is one of only seven players to record 400 stolen bases and 550 doubles.

Abreu ranks ahead of 14 Hall of Fame right fielders in JAWS, although many of these 14 were elected by the Veteran’s Committee. Abreu’s standard and advanced stats compare quite similarly to Vladimir Guerrero, who was elected with 92.9% of votes in 2018. The main difference between Abreu and Guerrero is that Abreu never had the elite seasons that Guerrero and other Hall of Famers have.

Abreu has enough going for him that he should be able to stick around on the ballot for a couple years but may not have enough to push him over the hump. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him be inducted by the Veteran’s Committee later on.

Billy Wagner

2019 was Wagner’s fourth year in the ballot. He received his first significant jump in support this year, going from 11.1% of votes in 2018 to 16.7% this year with 10 more voters saying they would have included Wagner if they could. Even then, he still has a long way to go before he will even sniff induction.

In two years with the Phillies, Wagner recorded 59 saves in 66 opportunities. He had a 2.37 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, 146 strikeouts, and 26 walks in 126 innings pitched. He earned All-Star honors in 2005 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.837 WHIP, 4.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 38 saves, and a league-leading 70 games finished.

Wagner was an effective pitcher for nearly the entirety of his major-league career, finishing with a 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 0.998 WHIP, 1196 strikeouts, 300 walks, and 422 saves in 853 appearances. He was an All-Star seven times and earned the Rolaids Reliever of the Year in 1999.

Relievers were a rare sight in the Hall of Fame for years, but with three joining in the last two years, the case is slowly emerging for them.

Wagner stacks up well against Mariano Rivera, who was unanimously elected this year. Wagner has the best strikeout rate and opposing batting average among pitchers with 800 or more innings. He also ranks first in WHIP and second in ERA and ERA+ to Rivera in the live-ball era. Wagner also ranks sixth in career saves behind three Hall of Famers (Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith) Franciso Rodriguez, and John Franco.

Perhaps the biggest case against Wagner is how he ranks in JAWS. He ranks below-average in JAWS, seven-year peak WAR, and career WAR among relief pitchers; that average will only go up once Rivera is formally inducted. It also doesn’t help that Wagner spent most of his career in Rivera and Hoffman’s shadow, not giving him as much attention as he may have deserved.

Wagner should see an increase in support in the coming years as relievers gain legitimacy in the Hall of Fame conversation. He has a lot of ground to cover to reach the 75% threshold, but he still has a few more years to do that. Wagner almost certainly will not get inducted in 2020, but his vote total should continue to rise.

Scott Rolen

Rolen is not remembered fondly in Philadelphia after demanding to be traded in 2002. That should not discount the positive impact he made for the Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Reds during his career.

Rolen started off his career well, winning Rookie of the Year in 1997 at 22 years old. This highlighted a seven-year tenure as a Phillie, recording 150 home runs, 559 runs batted in, 880 hits, and a .282/.373/.504 line. He won four Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger award.

Altogether, Rolen totaled 2038 games played over 17 seasons. He finished with 2077 hits, 316 home runs, 1287 runs batted in, .281/.364/.490 line, and 122 OPS+. Rolen was an All-Star seven times and won eight Gold Gloves.

Rolen ranks 10th among third basemen in JAWS with 70.2 career WAR, 43.7 seven-year peak WAR, and a 56.9 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame third baseman has 68.4, 43.0, and 55.7, respectively, putting Rolen exactly where he needs to be. His combination of strong defense and offense is the key to his high rank in JAWS.

Rolen has a solid Hall of Fame case, leading to an increase in support this year. After receiving 10.2% of votes in 2018, his first year of eligibility, he received 17.2% this year. 11 voters also said they would have included Rolen if they had space.

Now that the ballot has cleared up, Rolen should continue to get support for the Hall of Fame. Like Wagner, he still has a long way to go, but he is trending in the right direction with plenty of time to do so.