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Phillies final Hall of Fame update: Roy Halladay a near-lock

By John Town

PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 06: Roy Halladay #34 and Carlos Ruiz #51 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrate Halladay's no-hitter and the win in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park on October 6, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Reds 4-0. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 06: Roy Halladay #34 and Carlos Ruiz #51 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrate Halladay's no-hitter and the win in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park on October 6, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Reds 4-0. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images) /
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With the 2019 Hall of Fame class being announced Tuesday night, it appears former Phillies and Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay will make it in.

The BBWAA will announce which players will join the ranks of Cooperstown Tuesday night on MLB Network. Given what we already know about the voting so far, it appears the Phillies will have one more alumnus be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

As of Monday afternoon, Roy Halladay has received 92.6% of votes from 217 revealed ballots per Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. He is one of four players polling above the 75% threshold along with Mariano Rivera (100.0% of votes received), Edgar Martinez (90.8%), and Mike Mussina (81.6%).

Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight built a model to predict which players will be inducted. Rakich created an “adjustment factor” based on past voting results for players who have been on the ballot. For first-year players, he used voting results from similar players. That way he could account for how many votes players will get from private ballots.

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Rakich’s model predicted that Halladay will get inducted with 92.6% of votes (note that the ballot counts have been updated since the publishing of Rakich’s article). Rivera and Martinez will also get inducted based on this model, with 100% and 81.3% of votes, respectively. Rakich predicts Mussina will get left out as he has fared worse in private ballots.

Rakich’s model also predicted that Curt Schilling will be left out of the Hall of Fame once again. He has received 70.5% of votes so far, but he has fared considerably worse on private ballots. Rakich predicted that Schilling will only receive 63.0% of ballots, well short of the threshold needed.

Turning to other former Phillies, Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner will remain on the ballot as they have received 45 and 36 votes, respectively, enough to clear the 5% threshold. As it stands now, they have received 20.7% and 16.6% of votes so far.

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Meanwhile, it appears Roy Oswalt, Michael Young, Freddy Garcia, Juan Pierre, and Placido Polanco appear to be one-and-done candidates. Young has received three votes, Oswalt has two, and Polanco has one; the rest have none. They would need significant support from the remaining voters to stay on the ballot.

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