The Phillies and Aaron Nola could not find common ground before the arbitration deadline Friday, but the team should be willing to pay him whatever he wants
The Phillies and Aaron Nola failed to reach an agreement on a contract for 2019 by Friday night’s deadline. The two sides submitted their asking prices and if they can’t reach an agreement, they will have to go in front of an arbitrator to settle the matter.
Nola submitted an offer of $6.75 million, while the club submitted one of $4.5 million. There is a significant difference there, making a deal harder to come by. However, the club should be willing to pay Nola whatever he wants.
First off, Nola is not asking for an unreasonable amount of money. His asking price is less than Keuchel’s $7.25 million salary in 2016, the year after he won the Cy Young, a record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility. MLB Trade Rumors projected Nola will earn $6.6 million this year, only $150,000 less than what he is asking for.
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Nola was the team’s best player last year by far. He finished third in Cy Young voting and earned an All-Star appearance with a 2.37 ERA, 3.01 fielding-independent pitching, 27.0% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate, and 10.5 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement. When everything fell apart at the end of the season, Nola was the lone bright spot.
Nola is more than worth the $6.75 million asking price.
In the last three seasons, he was worth $21.8, $33.6, and $45.1 million according to Fangraphs. Even if Nola only pitches as he did in 2017, he will still be providing a tremendous surplus in value.
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Beyond the fact that Nola is worth this much money, the team should not want to sour relations with Nola in an arbitration hearing. Telling your ace pitcher and face of the franchise that they aren’t worth that much money will stick with them. This would affect any negotiations for a long-term extension and/or when Nola hits free agency after the 2021 season.
Settling disputes like this are why teams like to buy out players’ arbitration years with an extension. Philadelphia did it with Odubel Herrera and Scott Kingery and would surely like to do it with Nola and their other young talents. General manager Matt Klentak has never commented on this matter, but it surely is on the team’s mind.
Next. Phillies in Las Vegas courting Bryce Harper today. dark
Hopefully, the two sides can come to an agreement before needing to go to an arbitration hearing. If push does come to shove, it’s likely an arbitrator will side with Nola over the club. The team should avoid this mess and give some ground to Nola.