Five things for Phillies fans to look forward to in 2019
As we enter the new year with the potential to be special, let’s take a look at five things Phillies fans can look forward to in 2019.
2018 was a long and climactic year for the Phillies. They entered the year with heightened expectations as the team looked much better in the second half in the 2017 season. They had new manager Gabe Kapler on board and made some intriguing moves during the offseason. In a National League East race largely wide open, they had the chance to do some damage in the division or in the wild-card race.
The season couldn’t have opened much worse for the team, but they quickly turned things around and held first place in the division through July. Unfortunately, as you probably know by now, the team went from 15 games above .500 to an 80-82 finish as they crashed and burned their way to the end of September.
A couple questions we had entering the year were answered by the end of it. Aaron Nola is not only an ace but one worthy of Cy Young consideration. Rhys Hoskins is a top-tier offensive player, but left field wasn’t his strong suit. Carlos Santana didn’t make quite the impact we were hoping for and is now back with Cleveland after two trades.
With 2018 officially in the books, we can take a look forward to the 2019 season. We saw how well the Phillies can perform in the first three months of the season. The hope is that they can extend that performance over an entire season, which may just be needed in a division that looks a lot more competitive.
Let’s dive into five things we can look forward to in the new years.
The rest of the offseason
This has already been a busy offseason for the Phillies (more on that later) but things haven’t stopped with the calendar turning. There could still be significant additions before spring training begins in a month and a half.
The two biggest targets on the market, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, remain unsigned. Machado’s signing should come in the near future as he said it would come in the new year. Industry speculation is that Harper will wait for Machado to sign to set the baseline for his new contract.
The odds remain good that the Phillies wind up landing one of the two. They were one of the teams Machado visited during his free agency tour as he spent a long time meeting with club officials. Even if Machado winds up signing somewhere else, that would put more pressure on the front office to reel in Harper.
Beyond these two, the team remains in the market to bring in other significant free agents. The team has interest in Dallas Keuchel but may have to wait for him to lower his asking price. There is a feeling in the industry that Craig Kimbrel will come to Philadelphia. They remain in the discussion in trade rumors about Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, and Robbie Ray.
With about six weeks left before spring training begins, there are still plenty of avenues the team could explore to improve their roster. They have been connected to just about every big target out there and have a decent shot at landing one or two more before things are said and done.
Aaron Nola
How much fun was it to watch Aaron Nola this year? After saying for several years that he had the potential to be an ace, he went out there and showed that he’s more than just a solid No. 3 starter.
In 33 starts this year, Nola finished with a 2.37 ERA, 17-6 record, 0.975 WHIP, 3.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 3.01 fielding-independent pitching. His 10.5 pitching wins above replacement led the National League and were the most by a Phillies pitcher since Steve Carlton in 1972. In fact, no Phillie besides Carlton has been more valuable than Nola in over a century.
Nola earned his first of what should be many All-Star appearances. He finished in a comfortable third place in NL Cy Young voting behind a deserving Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Nola even wound up receiving 16 points in NL MVP voting, finishing 13th overall.
With this strong season, Nola has now put himself into the conversation as one of the best pitchers in baseball, just two years after his career was in serious doubt. When talking about the aces in the league, Nola should be one of the first names brought up.
Nola will easily be one of the more positive things to look forward to this year. The team will be able to bank on him delivering a strong start every fifth day, just like he did in 2018. At his age, he still has plenty of time to improve and get even better on the mound.
Rhys Hoskins at first base
Up until the signing of Carlos Santana, it appeared Rhys Hoskins would only be playing left field during his rookie year. With the signing of Santana, Hoskins remained in left in 2018. The team hoped he could learn the position and at least become somewhat average at the position. That did not happen.
Hoskins was not only bad defensively in left, he was downright awful. He finished the season with a -13.7 UZR/150 and -24 defensive runs saved. No Phillie has been worse in terms of DRS since it was first measured in 2002, while the only Phillies with worse UZR/150’s in a season were Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez.
Hoskins was obviously also one of the worst defensive players in the league this year. He finished with the worst defensive wins above replacement total, third-worst DRS total, and fourth-worst UZR/150.
By the end of the year, it was clear that Hoskins could not remain in left field. Santana’s presence made that a challenge with two years and over $30 million remaining on his contract. Thankfully, the team was able to trade him away, clearing up first base for Hoskins.
Hoskins playing first base next year should help both his own numbers and the team’s defense as a whole. He racked up 3.4 offensive wins above replacement last year, and by removing his awful outfield defense, his cumulative WAR total should rise considerably. Plus, far more balls will be getting caught in the outfield, making life easier for the pitching staff.
New faces (and upgrades)
As mentioned previously, there is still much to be done during the rest of the offseason. With that being said, the Phillies have already made several additions who will help improve the team in 2019.
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The biggest move came when Philadelphia traded Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford to the Mariners for shortstop Jean Segura and relievers James Pazos and Juan Nicasio. Segura may prove to be the biggest addition of the winter, providing a massive upgrade both offensively and defensively at shortstop. That position was a black hole of production for the team last year, but Segura will make sure that changes.
Nicasio, Pazos, and Jose Alvarez, who was acquired in exchange for Luis Garcia, will all help improve the bullpen significantly. Alvarez and Pazos are both better left-handed options than Adam Morgan. Nicasio was much better than his ERA indicated in 2018 and should serve as a better option than Garcia as a power arm in the bullpen.
While there were plenty of rumors circulating at the winter meetings, Andrew McCutchen became the team’s biggest acquisition while in Las Vegas. The 32-year-old outfielder signed a three-year, $50 million contract and should slot in Rhys Hoskins’ spot in left field. Even though he is not the MVP-caliber McCutchen from the first half of this decade, he remains a productive hitter.
Had you put McCutchen and Segura on the 2018 Phillies, they would have been the team’s second and third-best position players behind Hoskins. Adding them, plus a couple expected bounce-back seasons, could make a big difference, even without any further additions.