Phillies should skip starters, complete bullpen instead

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CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 08: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros pitches in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians during Game Three of the American League Division Series at Progressive Field on October 8, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

The Phillies need pitching help, but they may be better off pursuing additional relievers rather than adding another starter to the rotation.

It’s never easy being a major-league general manager, especially during an offseason with as much hype as this one. Things only get harder when your owner comes out and says the team will spend “stupid money.” Yet Phillies general manager Matt Klentak has been pretty smart so far addressing his need for pitching.

After saying they wouldn’t be outbid for Patrick Corbin, Klentak wisely let division rivals Washington Nationals drastically overpay on a six-year $140 million dollar contract. More recently, the Phillies had shown serious interest in lefty J.A Happ but again did not over jump, not offering the 36-year-old anything over two years, a move that in time will prove to be the right one.

Charlie Morton’s two years, $30 million deal is another that could have been outdone but again how much do you really want to give a 35-year-old with a career 4.23 ERA?

That leaves one major starting pitching domino to fall, Dallas Keuchel. Now if you are feeling Deja Vu on this one, you have good reasoning. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner, 31 years old, clearly past their prime but good old Scott Boras still trying to sell high.

Keuchel is Jake Arrieta from the left side. I mean their career ERA’s are literally within 0.04 points of each other. After a 10-11 3.96 ERA season is Arrieta’s three-year $75 million dollar contract really looking like Klentak’s best decision?

SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 30: Robbie Ray #38 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on September 30, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Starters on the trade market

So what’s available on the trade market? The Giants are reportedly not close to dealing Madison Bumgarner this offseason, making suitors wait to July when he most likely will be traded. He will be a second-half rental by then, but the Giants will still be looking to get as much as they can for their ace.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the verge of a fire sale and with Zach Greinke putting the Phillies on his no-trade list, Robbie Ray is the best option.

Ray had an excellent 2017 All-Star campaign, 15-5 2.89 ERA and 218 strikeouts, but he has failed to ever repeat that success. In his four other seasons he has reached 200 strikeouts just once, never posted more than 10 wins and his lowest ERA was 3.52 in 2015.

Ray’s age and multiple years of cheap team control could make him appealing but with Baseball Reference currently projecting him at 9-6 with a 3.78 ERA and 173 strikeouts, the Phils should be leery on how much they are willing to give up.

So maybe rather than overspend for a starter you like, let’s send some of that “stupid money” to a reliever we love. Now while the Phillies have been connected to about every baseball player but Tim Tebow it is not realistic they sign everyone. Here are five free agent relievers I believe the Phillies should try to at least sign a pair of.

Adam Ottavino

It seems like all athletes have their own conspiracy theories. Kyrie Irving thinks the world is flat, Steph Curry doubts the moon landing and Adam Ottavino believes he would strike out Babe Ruth every time he faced him. As far as free agency pitches go, it’s not a bad one.

Ottavino is coming off his best career season in almost every aspect. He set career bests in wins above replacement (2.6), ERA (2.43), strikeouts (112), strikeouts per nine innings (13) and hits per nine (4.6). Ottavino also finished the season with a 2.74 fielding-independent pitching and 0.991 WHIP.

While I’m not sure it would best the Babe every time, Ottavio’s stuff is filthy. He used his slider 49.97% of the time and it might be one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball. The rest of Ottavino’s arsenal consists of a mid 90 fastball and a cutter that averages at 91 MPH.

With that being said, there are plenty of red flags around Ottavino. He has pitched over 60 games just three times in his eight-year career while posting an ERA below three in just one of those seasons. Ottavino walked 4.2 batters per nine innings this season and walked 6.6 per nine last year.

While it has been quite some time, Ottavino did undergo Tommy John surgery back in 2011. Due to Ottavino’s low profile, he might not draw as large of a contract as others making him a smart sign. A righty, funky-motioned combo of Ottavino and Pat Neshek would be a pain for opposing hitters.

Andrew Miller

Maybe this could be an Andrew-filled offseason for the Phillies. Miller has made his way around the MLB during his 13-year career and could maybe make his seventh stop in the city of brotherly love.

There are still a ton of reasons to believe in Miller. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Miller’s velocity has shown little signs of regressing with a fastball that still averages around 90 MPH. His 2018 issues could be primarily caused by injuries as he is just one season removed from appearing in the mid summer classic.

Miller has proved to be a smart choice for each of his previous three suitors. While he did only account for 20 innings in Baltimore, he only allowed three earned runs and totaled 34 strikeouts while walking just four batters. Then when he was sent up to the Bronx, Miller embraced his role in stride.

Mainly being used as a closer in 2015, Miller locked down 36 of 38 save situations, posting an 2.04 ERA and a WHIP of 0.85. 2016 was peak Miller as the dominant lefty posted a 10-1 record with 12 saves, a 0.68 WHIP and a phenomenal 1.45 ERA. Miller finished ninth in Cy Young voting and had a 3.7 total WAR.

Miller capped off the 2016 season with a postseason for the record books. He was the ALCS MVP, pitching 19.1 total innings and giving up just 3 runs. MIller went 2-0 during an Indians run that would eventually end up in a seven game World Series loss.

The Phillies are reportedly going hard at the 6’7 lefty who at the right price could be a year changer for the club.

Zach Britton

Britton is another former Oriole Philadelphia’s front office is very familiar with. His adversity over the last few years is another reason this 2018-2019 free agency class won’t live up to the payday it was expected to a few years ago.

Britton had one of the greatest relief seasons in MLB history back in 2016 when he converted all 47 of his save opportunities behind a 0.54 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting and 11th in MVP voting. Prior to 2016, Britton was coming off two seasons with a sub-two ERA and a combined 73 saves.

Injuries tormented a large portion of Britton’s 2017 and 2018 seasons. Following his mid-season trade to the Yankees, Britton still showed dominant potential, but also created a few causes for concern. He only tallied 25 innings but posted a very nice 1.13 WHIP. His K/9 (7.6) was higher than his career average but walking 11 batters when only striking out 21 could be worrisome.

SInce his dominant 2016, Britton has failed to shut down just eight of 37 save opportunities, a 78% success rate. Britton is one of two legitimate closer options the Phillies have this offseason and as good as Britton is, it’ll be hard to find someone who believes he is the better of the two. Britton would likely only become the Phillies preferred option if Craig Kimbrel’s (we’ll get to him later) asking price becomes too large.

While Britton would not be my prefered option signing him would definitely be a major closer improvement and could the Phillies secure a bunch of more wins in 2019.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera is another underrated relief option and is one of my personal favorites. The 28-year-old is a two-time All-Star who served an elite seven-year tenure in Kansas City.

Herrera has four seasons where he appeared in 70 or more games and posted ERA’s of the following: 2.35, 1.41, 2.71 and 2.75. Herrera tallied 10 wins above replacement for the Royals and was a key contributor to the team’s 2015 World Series title.

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel is the star of this year’s relieving class. It has been reported Kimbrel is requesting a six year deal for over $100 million dollars and it is hard to say he doesn’t deserve it.

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In his eight career full seasons, the 30 year old has recorded 35 saves seven times, including three seasons with over 40. The seven-time All-Star closer has converted 90% of his save opportunities and has a career ERA below 2.00 and a sub one WHIP.

Kimbrel has been the league’s best closer since his debut. He could address a major issue for the Phillies as their closers who had only 43 saves in 63 opportunities (68%). While his contract demands might be a little pricey, maybe upping his annual salary to chop down some years could be the right play. This is especially true considering the fact that it could be the difference between Kimbrel being in Philadelphia’s bullpen, or facing him in the Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies have a ton of young pitchers and pitching prospects. If they succeed next year, it would prove their free agency decisions to be correct. But if they could bring in two of these five, it would go a long way to improving the team.

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Personally, I’d love to definitely sign Ottavino and Kimbrel and the consider Herrera for the right price. The Phillies have an opportunity to create one of the best bullpens in baseball this offseason with the right additions to guys like Seranthony Dominguez and Pat Neshek. Saving that money on starting pitching could also allow Klentak to add a little extra to a contract to lure in a certain big bat.

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