Phillies: Who’re the odd-men out of the starting rotation?
The Phillies will have some major decisions to make regarding the future of their starting rotation this offseason
After reportedly having free agent Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday the Phillies are signaling their intent on adding a reliable pitcher to their starting rotation along with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta.
Philadelphia has a motley of starting pitching depth at the top of their organization behind Arrieta and Nola. Last year they started 10 pitchers and return nine to the 40-man roster, Ben Lively being the lone exception. Along with Arrieta and Nola the Phillies have Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Enyel De Los Santos, Ranger Suarez, and Drew Anderson.
It’s likely the Phillies start De Los Santos, Suarez, and Anderson, all members of their top-30 prospect list, in the minors next year. Anderson is a potential bullpen candidate after making four relief appearances last year and not being as highly-regarded around baseball compared to Suarez and De Los Santos.
That leaves Eflin, Pivetta, Eickhoff, and Velasquez battling for two spots, assuming the Phillies acquire just one starting pitcher this offseason.
Each of those four players has had tremendous highs and lows since joining the Phillies, as well as injury concerns. Can any of those players step up and be a reliable number four or five starter going forward, or will the become trade bait this offseason?
Here’s how fans voted when we asked which pitcher should be a lock to make the rotation.
Which pitcher should be a lock to make the Phillies 2019 rotation
— PHILLIES TBOH (@FS_TBOH) November 27, 2018
Here are cases for each of those four guys to either make the rotation or be shopped this offseason.
Jerad Eickhoff
When healthy, Jerad Eickhoff has one of the best curveballs in baseball thanks to a terrific spin rate that brings unhittable movement.
Eickhoff essentially had a lost season after dealing with numbness in his pitching fingers after two impressive seasons in the rotation. He consistently gave solid starts, tossing eight quality starts in 2017 amidst his nerve issue.
Before the injuries Eickhoff was arguably the Phillies’ best starter for a year or two.
That lost season will weight heavily against Eickhoff, who made just one major league start in 2018 and isn’t as familiar to the current major league staff as others.
Eickhoff did strikeout 8 of the 15 batters he faced in his lone major league start in 2018, but was that lone start enough to prove himself?
Because of his injury concerns, it’s more than likely Eickhoff finds himself in the bullpen going forward as a long-man. While that’s surely disappointing for Eickhoff, it could be a blessing in disguise.
Philadelphia doesn’t have an efficient long-man after Mark Leiter Jr. was injured and subsequently designated for assignment. He’d be an upgrade over Adam Morgan, Yacksel Rios, or any other young reliever in the bullpen who could go multiple innings.
I don’t see Eickhoff being traded because of his injury history and teams not wanting to take that risk, so I believe he will be wearing a Phillies uniform next year, except his enteries will come from the bullpen, not the dugout.
Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin has appeared in trade talks over the last year but the Phillies have stubbornly kept him around. There were rumors over the summer that the Orioles wanted him in a Manny Machado deal but the Phillies were unwilling to deal him. Eflin’s name popped up again in reported discussions involving Paul Goldschmidt, and there are conflicting reports as to whether Eflin, not Carlos Santana, held up that trade.
Acquired in the Jimmy Rollins trade with Tom Windle in 2014, Eflin made a career-high 24 big league starts coming off knee surgery. He set career-highs across the board, including 11 wins and an 8.6 strikeouts/nine innings.
Nine of Eflin’s starts were considered “quality starts” meaning he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less. That’s not a fantastic quality start rate at 38%, putting him below average for all major league starters. He did finish better than Pivetta and Velasquez, though just slightly ahead of Velasquez.
Eflin has had some terrific, historic stretches of excellence on the mound followed by some horrendous starts. After striking out 13 hitters and allowing just one run in his first two starts in 2018 he had an 8.10 ERA in his next three starts, which included two five-run games.
The righty then had a six game stretch when he allowed two runs or fewer and went at least five innings. After that run he allowed three runs or more in 9 of his next 10 starts with a 6.26 ERA.
It’s been either hot or ice cold for Eflin since he made the big leagues, but other teams want him and the Phillies are resistant to trade him.
Because of their resistance to trade him, I think he can stick with the team and be their number four or five starter in 2019.
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta was filthy at times last year and he finished the season with a 2.3 WAR, the fourth-highest on the Phillies behind Nola, Arrieta, and Dominguez.
In his second full season with the big league club Pivetta posted career-bests across the board with the exception of wins, falling one short with just seven. Like the rest of the back of the rotation, Pivetta was hot and cold throughout the year.
Pivetta posted four consecutive starts in April where he pitched at least five innings and allowed two runs or less. In his first 11 starts, he had 9 games where he allowed three runs or fewer, the other two games being back-to-back starts against division opponents.
After keeping a respectable 3.26 ERA through May Pivetta hit a horrendous June with a 7.71 ERA. His only quality start that month was a 13 strikeout game against St. Louis, which was followed two starts later by a seven-run game where he couldn’t escape the second inning.
Pivetta finished the season with a 4.77 ERA, but he nearly had 200 strikeouts, finishing fifth in the National League with a 10.317 K/9, the third-best single-season rate in Phillies history behind Curt Schilling in 1997 and Vince Velasquez in 2016.
Last year Pivetta finished tied for sixth among all starters in pitches per plate appearace at 4.10
In a recent poll we conducted on Twitter asking which pitcher outside of Nola and Arrieta should be a lock, Pivetta was the clear favorite with a 14 point lead. That being said I think he makes the rotation but isn’t a lock beyond next year.
Vince Velasquez
This might be the biggest question mark in the Phillies bullpen going forward. We’ve seen flashes of greatness from Vince Velasquez, but we’ve also seen him throw 80 pitches in two innings.
Arguably the headliner in the Ken Giles trade, Velasquez has the stuff to be a top half of the rotation pitcher. He can strike out guys at a ridiculous rate (see the note on the prior slide) but he struggles when it comes to pitching a good game. He can bring really good stuff, but he hasn’t shown the ability or the control to dial it back and command a game.
Velasquez failed to pitch five full innings in 13 of his 30 starts last year, and he only pitched seven complete innings once.
Philadelphia Phillies
Because of injuries, Velasquez failed to qualify for some of the starting pitcher stats, but among starting pitchers with at least 140 innings (Velasquez had 146.1) he finished 33rd in pitches/plate appearance. at 3.92. He finished just under 17 pitches per inning, tied for 13th in baseball.
Velasquez can twirl some spectacular games when he’s on, like when he threw seven two-hit shutout innings against the Padres in July. A lot of fans still have his home debut from 2016 when he struck out 16 batters in a complete game shutout (once again against the Padres) stuck in the back of their heads.
Projections for Velasquez are all over the place, as some see him as a top of the line starter and others place him as a closer long-term. He’s had some great stretches, like when he had a 2.30 ERA in May and a 0.95 ERA in July. The righty had a seven-game stretch with a 1.35 ERA in the middle of the summer.
In most situations, Velasquez remains with the Phillies as a starter, but he’s a potential trade candidate. I could see him and Eflin fighting for the last starting job in spring training.
A lot of teams will be intrigued by Velasquez this offseason, but I think he returns and loses a starting job out of camp. He could be a very good set-up man whose sole purpose is to punch guys out, something he is very good at doing.