Phillies trade rumors: Is Zack Greinke worth the price?
The Phillies could be a suitor for Arizona’s Zack Greinke, but will he be worth both the cost of his contract and the cost to acquire him?
In the same article where he listed the Phillies as suitors for Seattle’s Jean Segura and Edwin Diaz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com also listed them as a potential landing spot for Arizona’s Zack Greinke. The Diamondbacks and whether or not they start selling off pieces will be one of the biggest storylines at the Winter Meetings.
One of the bigger hurdles to trading Greinke is the massive contract he signed with the Diamondbacks three years ago. He is still owed $34.5 million next year and $35 million in 2020 and 2021. Despite this, Morosi writes that Arizona does not feel they need to include cash to make a trade.
This logic is what makes Morosi call Philadelphia the most logical suitor as long as they don’t sign Greinke’s former teammate Patrick Corbin. With that in mind, will the cost to acquire and keep Greinke be worth it for the Phils?
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Greinke’s contract carries through when he will turn 37 years old. Paying any player that much money, let alone a starting pitcher, is a scary proposition. There is a strong chance his performance could sharply decline.
The contract looked like a huge mistake early with Greinke posting a 4.37 ERA in his first season with Arizona. He turned thing around in the last two years with a 3.20 ERA, 141 ERA+, 1.076 WHIP, 3.51 fielding-independent pitching, and 4.70 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 65 starts.
Given his strong performance the last two seasons, Arizona will likely look to pry away a couple high-end prospects for Greinke.
In a vacuum, that would make sense for someone who was an All-Star the last two years and finished fourth in Cy Young voting last year. However, Greinke’s contract brings that cost way down.
If the Diamondbacks refuse to send any money in the deal, there is no reason to give up any top names in the system. Greinke’s salary would take up a large part of the team’s luxury tax threshold and potentially prohibit other moves going forward. Unless Arizona does include cash in a trade, making one happen is unlikely.
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In the event Arizona does include some cash in the deal, trading for Greinke may just be worth it. They are taking on a huge risk that he can still perform at a high level the next three years, but he has been one of the better pitchers in the game the last two years.