After a poor rookie season, Nick Pivetta got significantly better with the Phillies this season. His underlying numbers indicate he should improve even more.
As a rookie, Nick Pivetta made the second-most starts in the Phillies rotation last year as the rotation was decimated with injuries. He got plenty of time on the mound, but the results weren’t great; in 26 starts, he had a 6.02 ERA, 4.87 fielding-independent pitching, 2.46 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and -0.4 bWAR.
Still, Pivetta showed some encouraging signs. Bad results were largely grouped together: he would dominate for two innings, melt down in one, then dominate for another two before being removed. The team knew they just had to find a way to help Pivetta limit the damage when bad situations occurred on the mound.
Given another chance in the rotation this year, how did Pivetta perform?
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Positives
Compared to last year, 2018 was a huge leap forward for Pivetta. In 33 starts, he had a 4.77 ERA, 3.80 fielding-independent pitching, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.69 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was worth 2.8 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR this year, making him the third and fourth-most valuable player on the team by each metric, respectively.
Pivetta was especially effective in striking batters out. He had a 27.1% strikeout rate, up 3.1% from last year. He finished fifth in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings (10.32), eighth in strikeouts (188), and ninth in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Pivetta’s results would have looked even better if the defense behind him been better. In mid-September, Mark Simon of the Athletic (subscription required) wrote that no pitcher was cost more runs by their defense than Pivetta. He had a skill-interactive ERA, which accounts for batted balls, of 3.51, which was 13th-best among all qualified pitchers. According to MLB Statcast, opposing hitters had an expected batting average of .237 and an expected weighted on-base average of .312 against Pivetta. However, hitters actually had a batting average of .255 and a weighted on-base average of .339, implying that his on-field results should be better. If Pivetta didn’t have the league’s worst defense behind him, then his ERA would have been a lot lower.
Negatives
While Pivetta did do a lot of things right this season, he still struggled in some areas. Home runs remain a huge issue for him. He surrendered 24 this season, tied for 11th-most in the National League. While Pivetta’s home run rates decreased compared to last year, he still allowed quite a lot. Pivetta gave up 1.32 home runs per nine innings, 15th-worst among qualifiers. He had a home run to fly ball ratio of 15.8%, which ranked sixth-worst.
In addition, Pivetta’s numbers dropped considerably once June rolled around. Through May, Pivetta had a 3.26 ERA, 2.80 fielding-independent pitching, 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio. From June on, he had a 5.60 ERA, 4.34 fielding-independent pitching, and 3.27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He had an ERA above five in June, July, and September.
As a whole, this was a good year for Pivetta’s development. His numbers were way better than last year, and he showed a long enough stretch of effective pitching to provide some hope moving forward. He had his issues, but the argument could be made that part of it wasn’t his fault, so I won’t be as harsh on him for that.
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Will he return?
I’d be willing to lock Pivetta in as the No. 3 starter behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta right now. I think Pivetta had the best season out of him, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin. If the Phillies are looking at the same numbers that I and others have been, they should see that Pivetta will get better results as time goes on. He showed the ability to make improvements from 2017 to 2018; he should be able to do it again going into 2019.
Pivetta will turn 26 as spring training begins next year, and he still has five seasons left under team control. If he follows the trajectory he has been on, the Phillies may be getting a really good cost-controlled starter for several years.