Phillies: Rhys Hoskins setting baseline for future expectations

Coming into the year, we weren’t sure what to expect from Rhys Hoskins. Now we have an idea what the Phillies should expect moving forward.

This season, the Phillies had two main goals: build on last year’s promising second half and figure out what expectations should be for various players on the team. Rhys Hoskins was one of those players whose expectation level still needed to be figured out.

On one hand, we saw just how strong of a hitter Hoskins can be at the major-league level. He set record after record for being the quickest player to various home run totals after hitting 18 in his first 34 games. However, we also saw him bottom out at the end of the season with just seven hits in his last 16 games.

Altogether, Hoskins finished his rookie season with a .259/.396/.618 line with 48 runs batted in over 50 games. Hoskins’ 161 OPS+ was better than all but five players who qualified.

If Hoskins was able to replicate his rookie season over a full year, that would make him a borderline MVP candidate. That was unlikely, but figuring out what to expect from him during a full season wasn’t easy.

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As the season approaches its end, we now have a better understanding of the type of hitter Hoskins is. In 133 games this year, Hoskins has a .251/.360/.499 line with a 126 OPS+, 30 home runs, 88 runs batted in, 13.4% walk rate and 23.0% strikeout rate. He has the most home runs of any Phillie since Ryan Howard’s 33 in 2011 and most runs batted in since Maikel Franco in 2016. He is the youngest Phillie to hit 30 home runs in a season since Scott Rolen.

Among NL hitters this year, Hoskins is tied for ninth in home runs and runs batted in, ranks 16th in OPS, and 13th in wRC+. His overall WAR total is dragged down by his defense in left field, but he still ranks 27th with 3.0 offensive wins above replacement.

Of course, not everything is sunshine and rainbows with Hoskins. He has been wildly streaky throughout the season. He had a .985 OPS in April before it dropped all the way down to .551 in May. It jumped all the way back up to 1.088 in June and stayed high at .921 in July, but it dropped back down to .758 with a .216 batting average in August. His batting average has remained low so far in September, but his OPS is .848 this month thanks to three home runs in last weekend’s series with the Mets.

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As mentioned previously, Hoskins’ defense in left field has been a major liability. He ranks third-worst in defensive runs saved and fourth-worst in UZR/150 among all outfielders this season. Hoskins has the worst defensive wins above replacement total of all players at -3.2. This isn’t really his fault as he is not playing his natural position, but it has to be noted when talking about his overall value to the team.

So as we look towards the future and start to evaluate all the players, what should we expect from Hoskins moving forward? While he may not be in among that elite tier of hitter, he is certainly in the second tier.

When Hoskins is at his best, he is hard to stop at the plate, but that comes with the times where he doesn’t hit much at all. He may never repeat that historic hitting pace that he started his career with, but when the season is over, he should be one of the best hitters on the team and one of the better hitters in the league. Solving his defense is another matter, but for now, we know what he provides at the plate.

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Of course, Hoskins could come out next year and blow everyone out of the water, making that entire paragraph look stupid. I would be more than happy to be wrong here, but at least we know what kind of player Hoskins is.

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