Phillies vs Braves: How the division race stacks up
How do the Phillies and Braves stack up head to head?
It’s looking like it will be a two-team race for the NL East that will come down the last week of the season. The Nationals are falling out of the race quickly and the Phillies and Braves are pulling away.
Philadelphia has lost 7 of 12 against Atlanta this year, and they end the year with two of the biggest series in recent team history.
So which team is better: Phillies or Braves? We’ll break down each aspect of the teams and compare them, starting with their offenses.
Offense
Braves: The Braves are among the top ten in baseball in almost every major offensive category. They’re third in team batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, seventh in slugging, and fifth in OPS.
To say Atlanta’s lineup is filled with talent is an understatement. Freddie Freeman is a perennial MVP candidate and has a chance at winning it this year. He’s fourth in the MLB and first among first basemen with a .321 batting average, and has a .403 OBP and a .934 OPS. Oh, and he has 20 home runs and 77 RBI.
In addition to Freeman, Nick Markakis is having a career year at age 34. He’s hitting .318 with 14 home runs and 80 RBI. Without this comeback season from Markakis, the Braves wouldn’t be in this race.
Finally, there is the dynamic duo of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Since his debut at the end of April, Acuña has been great. He’s set the table for the Braves lineup, including three straight leadoff home runs and five straight games with a home run. Overall, Acuña is hitting .295 with 19 home runs and 43 RBI in 71 games this year.
Albies has been equally good for the Braves lineup. Albies is second among second basemen in home runs with 21 and sixth in RBI with 62. He leads all second basemen and is twelfth in the entire league in doubles with 33.
The Braves are sixth in the MLB and tops in the NL in runs scored with 594. They’re a young team, but they can score.
Phillies: The Phillies have struggled all season offensively, and inconsistency has been a huge problem for this lineup. They have some really good players, Rhys Hoskins being at the forefront, but he can go very cold at times.
Odúbel Herrera is another streaky player, starting the season as an MVP candidate at the and now losing playing time to Roman Quinn. As bad as it can get when the offense is cold, it can be just as good when everyone is hitting well.
Rhys Hoskins has 25 home runs and 77 RBI with a .257 average and a .369 OBP, despite missing time with a broken jaw. He’s a streaky hitter, but he can put this offense on his back when he’s at his best.
There are a few surprises this year as well. Nick Williams is having a good year after starting the year in a platoon with Aaron Altherr and Maikel Franco has been outstanding since May. Williams is hitting .265 with 17 home runs and 49 RBI, while Franco is hitting .281 with 20 home runs and 61 RBI.
The additions of Wilson Ramos, Justin Bour, and Asdrúbal Cabrera have helped the lineup, and the team has much more depth offensively now.
Advantage: Atlanta
The Braves are better offensively than the Phillies. They’re dangerous up and down the lineup and have multiple players that can change a game just like that. The Phillies have dangerous hitters in their lineup, but they don’t get production on a consistent basis.
For that reason and the top-ten production from the Braves offense gives them the advantage in this category.
Defense
Braves: The Braves are top-ten fielding defense. Freddie Freeman can pick it at first base, and Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 Draft, has been fantastic at shortstop.
In the outfield, Ender Inciarte is a two-time Gold Glove Center Fielder, while Markakis has made just one error this year.
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Phillies: The Phillies have struggled defensively all season long. Part of it has to do with multiple players playing out of position. Rhys Hoskins is playing left field instead of first base and has struggled to adjust. Scott Kingery is playing shortstop instead of second base and has had a learning curve there.
However, most of the time, the mistakes are from mental or fundamental miscues. The Phillies are tied with St. Louis for the most errors in baseball this year with 96 errors and for last with a .979 fielding percentage.
Advantage: Atlanta
The Braves have the advantage here. Based on statistics and personnel, the Braves have played better defense than the Phillies all year.
Starting Rotation
Braves: The Braves rotation is good at the top, but tails off at the bottom. Mike Foltynewicz has been very good all year long. He is tied for the team lead wins with ten, while he leads the team in with a 2.72 ERA and in strikeouts with 161. He might be in the Cy Young conversation, but is a long shot to win it.
After Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb is 10-6 with a 3.73 ERA and took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Dodgers in July. Julio Teheran is 8-7 with a 3.73 and Anibal Sanchez is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA. Finally, Kevin Gausman has been good in two starts with the Braves since being traded from Baltimore in July.
The Braves have some good pitchers, but after Foltynewicz, you don’t know what you’re going to get in a big game.
Phillies: The Phillies have a young rotation as well, but Aaron Nola looks like a veteran when he takes the mound and Jake Arrieta is a World Series Champion.
Nola has a legitimate chance at the Cy Young this year. He is 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 160 strikeouts. He’ll finish the season with over 200 innings, and he’s been dominant every time he has taken the mound.
Arrieta has been a huge addition to this staff going 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA, but his presence has been even more impactful on the young rotation. His playoff experience will be vital down the stretch and the Phillies will have no doubts handing him the ball in a big game.
Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have been decent, but somewhat inconsistent. When each of them are pitching well, they can be as dominant as anyone.
This staff has been the reason the Phillies are in the race for first place.
Advantage: Phillies
They are close in the rankings with the Braves staff ERA at 3.85 and the Phillies having just slightly better at 3.79. The Phillies’ rotation has more talent, experience, and depth than the Braves’ rotation. Because of that, the Phillies have the advantage in the starting rotation.
Bullpen
Braves: The Braves don’t have too many big names in their bullpen. Their closer, Arodys Vizcaino is very good with fifteen saves and a 1.65 ERA.
AJ Minter and Dan Winkler both have 54 appearances and a 3.24 and 2.72 ERA respectively. Former Phillies top prospect and Philadelphia native Jesse Biddle has a 2.63 ERA in 41 appearances as he’s revived his career.
There isn’t too much experience in the Braves’ bullpen. Peter Moylan is the only major contributor with experience, and that overall inexperience makes it hard to count on them down the stretch.
Phillies: The additions of Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek this offseason have solidified the Phillies’ bullpen, and Neshek has been outstanding since his return from injury.
This bullpen has pitched well in big situations for most of the year and has been a huge help to this team.
Philadelphia Phillies
Seranthony Dominguez has been dominant this year, at least when he gets a days rest. He was a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, but his stuff has translated extremely well to the bullpen.
He has 14 saves and a 2.28 ERA. As long as he has some rest, he’s been as dominant as any closer this year.
The only problem with him is experience and fatigue. He hasn’t pitched this much before and hasn’t even played a full season in the league yet.
Advantage: Phillies
Both teams have had decent bullpens this year, but the Phillies’ have more depth in theirs. They have five or six pitchers they have counted on in big situations this year.
The Braves only have three or four that they can go to in big spots. The Phillies bullpen is built to last down the stretch and for that, they have the upper hand.
So who is the better team?
The Braves have the advantage offensively and defensively. The Phillies have the advantage with their pitching staff. Good pitching will always beat good hitting, especially in the crisp fall temperatures at playoff time.
This division will come down the final eleven games of the year when these two teams play seven times. It’s going to be a tight race to the end, but the Phillies have a better pitching staff than the Braves.
Next. Evaluating the Cole Hamels trade three years later. dark
They’re a year or two ahead of schedule, but I’m picking the Phillies to win the National League East.