Phillies: Evaluating the return for Cole Hamels three years later

PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 07: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with Jorge Alfaro #38 after scoring on a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 07: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with Jorge Alfaro #38 after scoring on a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
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PITTSBURGH, PA – JULY 07: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with Jorge Alfaro #38 after scoring on a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – JULY 07: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with Jorge Alfaro #38 after scoring on a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

More than three years have passed since the Phillies traded away Cole Hamels. How much of a return have they gotten from the deal?

The Phillies made a franchise-changing deal more than three years ago when they sent longtime ace Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers. It was the most significant trade of the team’s rebuilding period as they now start to emerge from it.

Hamels remains an effective pitcher in the league. He was an All-Star the next season after the trade with a 3.32 ERA in 2016. It climbed up a run in 2017 and into this year, but he certainly isn’t a bad pitcher even at 34 years old. In three starts since being traded to the Cubs last month, he’s given up just two earned runs.

The Rangers and now Cubs have gotten solid results from Hamels over the last three years, but what have the Phillies gotten from the trade? Let’s take a look.

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 26: Jake Thompson #44 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the 9th inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 26, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 26: Jake Thompson #44 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the 9th inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 26, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The lost pieces

The Phillies received six players in exchange for Hamels and Jake Diekman. Of those six, only three remain in the organization. The other three gave the team little to literally nothing in their time here.

Matt Harrison was on the Phillies roster through the 2016 season but never pitched for them. He and his $13.2 million salary were stashed on the 60-day disabled list. His career was cut short due to back issues, pitching just nine times from 2013 to 2015. Philadelphia bought him out after the 2016 season to protect their Rule 5 eligible prospects. They are still paying him $2 million this season.

Alec Asher was the least-touted prospect of the ones the Phillies received. His time as a Phillie was short-lived. In 12 starts here, he had a 5.88 ERA and 1.376. He had a 2.28 ERA in five starts at the end of 2016, but he was traded to Orioles for a player to be named later or cash after spring training last year. He was just designated for assignment by the Brewers.

Of three headliners in the deal, Jake Thompson turned out to be the dud. He became the team’s top-ranked pitching prospect upon arrival, but could never find enough command to become a successful major-leaguer. He walked 61 batters in 116.1 innings in the majors, posting a 4.87 ERA, 5.80 fielding-independent pitching, and 1.530 WHIP over three seasons. The team designated Thompson for assignment last week after acquiring Justin Bour. He was traded to the Brewers for cash or a player to be named later Tuesday.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 10: Jerad Eickhoff #48 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action against the New York Mets during a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 10, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 10: Jerad Eickhoff #48 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action against the New York Mets during a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 10, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

Jerad Eickhoff

Jerad Eickhoff made the most immediate impact after the trade, debuting August 21, 2015. In eight starts that year, he had a 2.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He only continued to succeed in 2016, making 33 starts with a 3.65 ERA, 167 strikeouts, 42 walks, and an opposing batting average of .246 in 197.1 innings. He was worth 3.6 wins above replacement that year according to Baseball Reference.

Problems started to emerge in 2017 as Eickhoff dealt with injury and command issues. His walk rate increased from 5.2% to 9.2%. He made just 24 starts before ending the year on the disabled list.

Eickhoff has yet to pitch this season after dealing with more injuries. He suffered a lat strain in spring training, keeping him out through April. When he started rehabbing to return from that, he felt tingling in his fingers while he pitched, the same thing that cut his 2017 season short.

Eickhoff has been rehabbing again in Clearwater, making his third appearance Tuesday night. He could return in September, but he won’t have a rotation spot. Considering he hasn’t pitched all season, the team may opt to use him in a relief role.

After this season, he could push for a rotation spot again as he has shown he can be an effective starter when healthy. The key is obviously if he can stay healthy, which he hasn’t done for two seasons in a row. He turned 28 this year, so he still has time to do so.

SAN DIEGO, CA – AUGUST 11: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies is congratulated by Dusty Wathan #62 after hitting an RBI triples during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 11, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – AUGUST 11: Nick Williams #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies is congratulated by Dusty Wathan #62 after hitting an RBI triples during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 11, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Nick Williams

Williams was one of the two top hitting prospects the Phillies acquired in the deal. He had a rough first full season with the organization in Triple-A in 2016, but he surged last year before making his major-league debut.

In 83 games last year, Williams hit 12 home runs, drove in 55 runs, and had a .288/.338/.473 line with a 110 wRC+. It was more than enough to establish himself as a major-leaguer, even though he had to jockey for time in right field with Aaron Altherr.

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The jockeying with Altherr continued this season as Williams seemingly became the team’s fourth outfielder. That eventually changed as Altherr faltered and was eventually optioned to Triple-A, leaving the job open for Williams. He has seized the role by the horns and doesn’t appear he will be letting go.

Since the start of May, he has a .278/.348/.491 line with a 126 wRC+ (excluding Thursday’s doubleheader).

Altogether this season, Williams has 17 home runs, 48 runs batted in, and a .341 weighted on-base average. He has been worth 1.1 offensive wins above replacement.

The main hole in William’s game is defense. He only has two errors in his career, but he is killed by advanced metrics. So far in his career, he has -23 defensive runs saved and a -11.2 UZR/150 at all three outfield positions combined. Left field is the only position he’s passable in, but even then he has negative defensive runs saved. This has led to him being worth 1.6 defensive wins below replacement this season, ultimately combining to have -0.1 WAR altogether this season.

In Williams, the Phillies have an above-average offensive but below-average defensive outfielder. His hitting ability is certainly enough to keep him in the major leagues, but his defense will keep him from jumping into the upper echelon of outfielders.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 14: Jorge Alfaro #38 of the Philadelphia Phillies swings and misses a pitch in the eighth inning during a game against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park on August 14, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Red Sox won 2-1. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 14: Jorge Alfaro #38 of the Philadelphia Phillies swings and misses a pitch in the eighth inning during a game against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park on August 14, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Red Sox won 2-1. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) /

Jorge Alfaro

Of all the players in the Hamels deal, Jorge Alfaro has both the biggest upside and the biggest risk. At the time of the trade, he was a big catcher with plenty of raw power and a cannon of an arm. Meanwhile, he lacked a consistent hit tool and was a major work in progress with the finer aspects of catching.

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Fast forward to this year, and Alfaro has more or less fit the bill. He leads the National League in assists as a catcher and runners caught stealing. He is a strong pitch framer with 10.4 framing runs according to Baseball Prospectus, the second-most of all catchers this season. On the other hand, he has allowed more passed balls and stolen bases than any other NL catcher.

Alfaro has fared poorly at the plate. In 89 games this year, he has eight home runs, 28 runs batted in, a .250/.308/.390 line, and 84 wRC+. His strikeouts have been especially concerning, striking out in 37.4 percent of his plate appearances. His 119 strikeouts coming into Thursday were the sixth-most in the NL.

Alfaro has been relegated to a backup role with the acquisition of Wilson Ramos. If Ramos impresses, he could very well be re-signed for the next few years. As it stands now, Alfaro would be a more than adequate backup. However, his ceiling is so much higher than that, and if he puts everything together, he can be one of the best catchers in the league.

Alfaro is still just 25 years old, and catchers often take longer to develop. He has spent much more time this season focusing on his defense, so it’s not a surprise his offense has taken a step back. If he can just get his offense up to league-average in the near future, that would still make him one of the better offensive catchers in the game. If he rises even higher than that, watch out.

Next. Phillies vs Mets: The 2018 season in two acts. dark

Even though the trade happened more than three years ago, the ultimate return of the trade is far from certain. It will take us at least the next few years to fully figure things out, but the fact that the trade is still playing a huge role in the team’s future is a good thing.

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