Phillies: Recent struggles for Zach Eflin could cause long term problems
The Phillies have had solid pitching most of the way this season, but recent struggles by Zach Eflin could cause problems down the stretch.
The Phillies entered play in Sunday 2.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Getting by largely with a pitching staff that is sixth in the NL in ERA, there is possibly cause for concern with the recent sub-par performances by Zach Eflin.
Looking down the road, should the Phillies make the postseason, they will need a solid three-man rotation. Aaron Nola has been one of the best in the league. However, Jake Arrieta has been up and down. As the third man, Eflin was emerging as a consistent force with his performance in June and even more reliable than Arrieta. However, the last three starts raise some eyebrows.
Eflin allowed four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Reds on Sunday, three earned runs in 2 1/3 the previous start against the Dodgers and three earned in five innings against the Mets July 9. What is even more disturbing than his 6.92 ERA during that stretch is Eflin’s inability to keep the ball in the park. He surrendered five home runs in just 13 innings and has been taken deep 11 times in only 82 innings this season.
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Examining the totality of his season, when Eflin is able to keep the ball in the park, he is dominating. In June, he posted a record of 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA, striking out 28, walking six and allowing zero home runs in 30 2/3 innings. In the seven starts in which he’s been taken deep, Eflin has pitched to an ERA of 5.91.
The question moving forward is which Eflin the Phillies are going to get.
Is he the pitcher who dominated in June or was that an aberration and the relatively poor performances is more what is the norm?
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The is no question the Phillies offense will be a big factor as to whether or not they make the postseason. Anyone that has been paying attention knows the team strikes out at an alarmingly high rate, has a low batting average and simply haven’t produced consistently enough. If that continues, then the only chance the Phillies have is for the staff to be excellent. That means Eflin has to be a big part of that equation unless Vince Velasquez or someone else emerges. Could there be a trade for a pitcher? That is also not out of the realm of possibility.
So which Eflin are we likely to see over the final two months? In a way, it’s hard to predict considering he has only 35 Major League starts under his belt. However, that is about a season’s worth of starts and in those 35, he’s allowed 37 home runs and has an ERA of nearly five.
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Since that alarming trend has continued, it’s likely that the Eflin getting scorched by the long ball is what we will get. If that is the case, the Phillies need to find a reliable man to go along with Nola and Arrieta (assuming he can get back on track) for a push down the stretch for the playoffs.