Young starters are coming along nicely
One of the biggest question marks this season was the back half of the starting rotation. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta were more or less known quantities, but the group of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, and Zach Eflin had little certainty about them. Each had shown potential previous years, but they all still had plenty of work to do.
Lively fell out of the rotation early, but the trio of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eflin have proved more than capable back-end relievers. Eflin has seen the biggest jump, going from a 5.85 ERA his first two years to a 3.15 ERA this season. In 12 starts, he has been worth two wins above replacement with a 1.078 WHIP, 3.03 fielding-independent pitching, and 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Healthy and stronger than ever, Eflin has had a career revival.
Pivetta’s 4.58 ERA this year has been deceiving as he has a 3.75 FIP and a 3.44 skill-interactive ERA. He has struck out 10.56 batters per nine innings while walking 2.80 per nine, both of which are notable improvements compared to his rookie year. His 3.767 strikeout-to-walk ratio is 10th-best in the NL and his K/9 is sixth-best. After being a below-replacement pitcher last year, he has been worth 1.4 wins above replacement in 20 appearances.
Velasquez’s overlying numbers are also deceiving with a 5-8 record and a 4.39 ERA. His other ones have been much closer to his first season in Philadelphia with a 27.9 percent strikeout rate, 8.9 percent walk rate, 3.65 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.78 FIP. In terms of fWAR, he is on pace for his highest total yet with 1.7 in 18 starts, already close to eclipsing his total of 2.2 in 24 starts in 2016.
As a whole, the back end of the rotation has not only been reliable but one of the main reasons they are in first place in the division. They will need to continue this performance to keep the team in the race, but they have done well up to this point.