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How will Phillies prospect Dylan Cozens perform in major-league debut?

By John Town

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10: (L-R) Dylan Cozens #31 of the U.S. Team, Chance Sisco #12, and Clint Frazier #4 look on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10: (L-R) Dylan Cozens #31 of the U.S. Team, Chance Sisco #12, and Clint Frazier #4 look on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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Dylan Cozens has finally made it to the major leagues with the Phillies. How will the outfielder 24-year-old fare in his MLB debut?

With Rhys Hoskins likely headed to the disabled list, someone needed to replace him in the major leagues. Dylan Cozens was the only healthy outfielder left on the Phillies 40-man roster, so he got the call to join the team in Los Angeles late Wednesday night.

It is fitting that Cozens would be the one to replace Hoskins. Back in 2016, the two combined for 78 home runs and 241 runs batted in for Double-A Reading. Since then, their paths have diverged as Hoskins made his way to the majors last year while Cozens remained in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Now, Cozens is in the majors and will soon make his major-league debut. There is zero chance he starts against Clayton Kershaw Thursday night, but he could be in the lineup Friday night against the Giants with the righty Chris Stratton on the mound.

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It’s hard to say how much Cozens will play in the majors. The trio of Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, and Nick Williams will likely start every day while Hoskins is out. Cozens should get a start once or twice a week while pinch-hitting against right-handed relievers.

Standing six feet, six inches tall and weighing 235 pounds, Cozens has plenty of raw power. He showed it in 2016, even if it was exacerbated by Reading’s home stadium.

With any power hitter in the minors, the question always is how much will it translate to the majors.

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Unfortunately, if Cozens’ last two seasons in Triple-A are any indication, he probably will really struggle against major-league pitchers. Last season, Cozens led all minor-league hitters with 194 strikeouts, striking out in 38.3 percent of his plate appearances. He still hit 27 home runs in 135 games, but his line dipped to .210/.301/.418.

This year in Triple-A hasn’t been much better. He already had 75 strikeouts in 50 games before his call-up, tied for most in the International League. While he started the year off well with a .977 OPS through May 5, he has just 11 hits since then. Lefties have absolutely dominated him as he is hitting just .143 with one home run against them.

Pitchers at Triple-A have exploited Cozens’ lofty swing. That swing can give him a lot of power, but it has led to plenty of strikeouts as well. He does have a strong 12.7 percent walk rate and .325 on-base percentage, but that propensity to striking out still remains a huge issue. If Triple-A pitchers can do this to Cozens, ones in the majors should have no issue doing the same thing.

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While in the majors, Cozens will absolutely punish mistake pitches, but good pitchers will likely take advantage of his swing. It will be hard to expect him to replicate his 2016 season, but he could carve out a role as a hard-hitting fourth outfielder.

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