Hector Neris continues to struggle in high-leverage situations, but the Phillies continue to use him. It’s time for things to change.
The narrative surrounding Hector Neris has changed drastically this season. He came into the year established as the Phillies closer after a strong 2017. He had a 3.01 ERA in 74 appearances, making 26 saves in 29 opportunities.
Things are wildly different this year. Neris blew a save on Opening Day, allowing a walk-off home run to Nick Markakis in a crushing loss. He then blew two saves in the span of a week earlier this month, leading to manager Gabe Kapler going to a closer-by-committee approach.
Since Neris’s last blown save, Seranthony Dominguez, Luis Garcia, and Edubray Ramos have picked up a save. Dominguez has become Kapler’s go-to whenever the team is in a tough spot, and he has delivered every time.
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Neris’s only other save since his last blown save came in a 3-0 win over the Braves May 21. His other three outings prior to Sunday came in low-leverage or mop-up situations. Neris came into a game against the Orioles after Ramos struck out the first two batters to get one out.
Sunday, Neris showed yet again why he can’t be trusted in high-leverage situations. He entered the ninth inning with the Phillies down by one run.
Neris actually started off strong, getting two strikeouts to start the inning. He then allowed his fourth home run of the season to Curtis Granderson, giving the Blue Jays an extra insurance run. It ultimately didn’t matter as Philadelphia still lost 5-3, but it was just another example of Neris failing to do what a closer should.
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As a whole this year, Neris has done fine in low-leverage situations but has immensely struggled in high-leverage ones. Facing 38 batters in low-leverage situations, Neris has given up just two runs on six hits. Meanwhile, against 36 batters in high-leverage situations, opposing hitters have a .313/.412/.600 line, scoring eight runs on 10 hits and three walks. Neris has a 3.69 fielding-independent pitching in low-leverage situations but a 5.98 FIP in high-leverage.
Neris has always had a rather high walk rate for a late-game reliever, but it has been especially bad this year. He has walked 11.6 percent of opposing hitters, considered worse than awful by Fangraphs.
These walks have played a huge part in Neris’s struggles this season.
As a whole this year, Neris has a 4.50 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has been worth 0.2 wins below replacement this year; Drew Hutchison is the only active reliever on the team with a lower fWAR.
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Even though Neris entered the season as the closer, it is time to stop using him in high-leverage situations altogether. The team simply has better options in these situations, like Dominguez, Garcia, and Ramos. Neris still has a place in the bullpen, but he is better off pitching earlier on in games or when there is a large lead for either team.