Phillies welcome the Atlanta Braves: 5 things to watch for
It’s the most important series in the Phillies rebuilding era, and it starts tonight
Since the start of the 2013 season, the Phillies have played three games as the sole leader of the National League East. That’s .0035% of their games in the last five and a quarter seasons, which is about what you’d expect from a rebuilding team.
Atlanta was thought to be a rebuilding team entering this year and among the worst teams in baseball. That changed from day one when they showed a combination of young stars and veterans could get the job done as the division favorites slipped early. With New York and Washington fighting to reclaim themselves in the division, Philadelphia and Atlanta are fighting for first place as they begin a critical three-game series.
Eight games above .500 this season the Phillies have struggled against division opponents winning just 8 of 22 games. Three of those wins came against Atlanta during two early series which the Braves took six of nine. Both clubs already look different with the Braves bringing up two of their top offensive prospects and the Phillies starting pitching in a groove.
Braves young stars
Atlanta’s farm system has been rated as one of the best in baseball, and their young prospects are turning into stars. Ronald Acuna was rated as Baseball Pipeline’s top overall prospect, and while the .264 batting average isn’t fantastic, the 24 hits in 23 games is. Acuna paired with Ozzie Albies has the league shaking with Albies leading the National League in runs scored, total bases, and home runs.
Pitching is also a strong point for the Braves young stars with Sean Newcomb holding a 5-1 record with a 2.39 ERA in nine starts. Luis Gohara, who is scheduled to start in the series, has a 1.29 ERA in three relief appearances.
Somewhat forgotten in the crop of young players is Dansby Swanson, who was also rated at one time the top prospect in baseball. Now in his third season with Atlanta Swanson is hitting .281 in 30 games and playing fantastic defense at shortstop.
Nick Pivetta & Vince Velasquez
Both Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez have surprised fans and the club this season winning a combined seven games this year with a 4.01 ERA. Velasquez has impressed in his last two outing pitching through the sixth and averaging 16 pitches per inning, something that’s plagued his career.
Pivetta has also pitched two bounce-back games after allowing six runs in one inning against the Nationals. Striking out 18 hitters in his last 12 innings allowing six hits, one earned run, and one walk Pivetta looks like the budding star the Phillies saw in late April.
The two starters will get the opening two games of the series against Atlanta. Pivetta is 3-1 in six starts against Atlanta with a 3.48 ERA while Velasquez is 0-4 with a 4.89 ERA in seven starts.
Luckily for the Phillies the hitters aren’t scheduled to face Atlanta’s best pitchers Julio Teheran or Sean Newcomb, suggesting some run support could be on the way for Pivetta and Velasquez.
Velasquez receives the sixth-most run support in baseball with the offense supplying seven runs a game. There’s an outlier with the Phillies 20-run game during his second start, but they’ve scored six runs in each of his last two starts. Pivetta receives much less support with 4.3 runs per game.
Rhys Hoskins
May has not been a friendly month for Rhys Hoskins after hitting .303 with four home runs in the months of March/April. His offensive statistics have essentially been cut in half with nearly as many strikeouts.
A home run in the series finale in St. Louis was not only his first since May 5, but primarily a glimpse of hope the month-long hitting slump is coming to an end. In the 11 games between home runs Hoskins hit .154 with six hits and 17 strikeouts. It’s uncharacteristic of Hoskins to strikeout as much as he’s experienced the last month, and he has more strikeouts this season through 44 games than he did as a rookie through 50 with five fewer walks.
Personally, I thought Hoskins needed two or maybe three games off just to work on his pitch recognition, swing, and his head. That would have provided playing time for Nick Williams in left, but alas, Hoskins started all but one game in the home run drought.
More recently Gabe Kapler has hit Hoskins second, including the series opener on Monday, but Hoskins’ numbers have been better as the clean-up hitter. Through 30 games hitting fourth this year Hoskins is hitting .303 compared to the .146 average when batting second.
We’ll see if the power surge will continue for Hoskins against Atlanta, a team he’s hitting .283 off of in his career.
Right field
Aaron Altherr versus Nick Williams have been a topic of conversation all season for Philadelphia with the young outfielders battling for playing time on a nightly basis. Altherr is batting below the Mendoza line, and Williams is only slightly ahead of him.
Williams has been clutch off the bench, but with a highly publicized free agent class and a bevy of outfield prospects, the Phillies need to know if Williams is a star off the bench or every day.
The lefty Williams has primarily faced righties this year with little success, batting .203 in 84 plate appearances. He’s three for eight against lefties, with one of those three hits being a pinch-hit home run.
Altherr had a tremendous amount of time to prove he’s the star the front office thinks he can be, but now it appears Williams is finally getting an opportunity to play every day, even against the Braves righty Mike Foltynewicz. Veteran righty Brandon McCarthy is scheduled to pitch game two, and rookie lefty Luiz Gohara gets game three.
Bullpen
As a whole the Phillies bullpen has been strong this season allowing the eighth-fewest runs per game, blowing the second-fewest saves, and having the third-most holds in baseball.
Where the problems come are with the closer and some of the vets in the pen. Hector Neris’ inconsistency this season is a major storyline and the team is taking notice.
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Edubray Ramos and Seranthony Dominguez have gotten the chance to close this year, and Dominguez’ effectiveness is drawing attention around baseball.
Two days ago he pitched two perfect innings and got the save against St. Louis throwing 31 pitches, 20 for strikes. He’s yet to allow a hit in 6.2 innings pitched this year, and the only base runner he’s allowed was a hit-by-pitch versus the Mets.
Tommy Hunter’s struggles have also become something of note, allowing six hits and two runs in his last three appearances. The Phillies’ $18 million man has had as many two-hit games then no/one-hit appearances.
Next: 5 things learned from the Cardinals series
Victor Arano is back from the disabled list, and Mark Leiter Jr. is getting work in with Lehigh Valley after coming back from injury. Arano has a 1.52 ERA in 21 career appearances with 27 strikeouts and only four earned runs allowed.