Five relievers the Phillies could trade for at this year’s deadline
Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Phillies bullpen this season. Here are five relievers who they could acquire at the deadline.
The narrative surrounding the Phillies’ pitching staff has been completely turned on its head this year. Coming into the season, most expected the bullpen to be the strength of the team while the rotation was a question mark. A month and a half later, the complete opposite has happened.
Philadelphia’s rotation has been strong. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta have been dominant at the top while Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez have been strong in the middle. Even Zach Eflin has done well since taking over for the injured Ben Lively.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has been more of a rough patch this year. They rank 17th in Fangraphs wins above replacement (fWAR). Their ERA of 3.29 actually ranks seventh, but their 3.89 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and 4.19 expected FIP (xFIP) indicate their ERA is better than it should be.
Injuries have forced the team to rely on their minor-league depth early with Mark Leiter, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Adam Morgan, and Victor Arano all spending time on the disabled list. Combine that with Hector Neris’s inconsistency closing games, and there certainly could be a need for an upgrade when the July trade deadline rolls around. If this team is serious about making a playoff push, they will need a stable bullpen.
In the event the Phillies do trade for a reliever, here are five potential options the club can explore.
Zach Britton
Zach Britton is likely the most recognizable name on this list. You probably remember him most for when Orioles manager Buck Showalter didn’t put Britton, his best reliever, in the team’s 2016 wild-card game loss to the Blue Jays.
Britton has been among baseball’s best closers for several years now. Since 2014, he has the second-best ERA and sixth-best xFIP of all qualified relievers. He has racked up 135 saves in that span, fifth-most in the league. Britton had a streak of 60 consecutive successful saves, the second-longest streak ever.
While Britton has been dominant, there is one significant issue: injuries. He missed much of the first half of last season due to forearm tightness. Britton has not pitched at all this year due to a torn Achilles he suffered during the offseason. He is not expected to pitch until June.
Still, if Britton comes back from the Achilles injury pitching well, he will be a hot commodity at the deadline. He is a free agent after this season, making him appealing to teams looking for a rental. The Phillies might want someone who will be with the team long-term, so they could try to work out a longer-term deal with Britton.
Brad Hand
The Padres have not been good this year with a meager 14-26 record, but they have had one strength: their bullpen. Their 2.2 fWAR ranks third among all teams. Lefty Brad Hand has played no small part in making this happen.
Through 17 outings this year, Hand has a 2.55 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 39.7 percent strikeout rate, and 1.08 WHIP. He has recorded 10 saves in 12 opportunities this season.
Hand has been strong since joining the Padres in 2016. In three years in San Diego, he has racked up 186.1 innings, 244 strikeouts, and 63 walks in 171 appearances. He has a 2.56 ERA and 3.87 strikeout-to-walk ratio as a Padre.
Hand did sign an extension with the Padres during the offseason, keeping him signed through 2020 with a team option for 2021. Hand just turned 28, so this extension runs through most of his prime years. This certainly would make him attractive to the Phillies, but it will also make him attractive to plenty of other teams. The Padres will try to get as many prospects as possible in return for Hand, but with how he has performed, it may be worth it.
Kelvin Herrera
Since winning the World Series in 2015, the Royals have been stuck behind other teams in the AL Central, finishing around .500 in each of the last two seasons. They have started off this year with a 13-25 record, but remain only 5.5 games out of the division lead as the leading Indians only have an 18-19 record. However, if the Royals fall further behind in the division, expect them to start trading away assets.
One very tradeable player is Kelvin Herrera. He is a free agent after this season and only is being paid $7.9 million. He struggled last year but posted a sub-three ERA in each of the three seasons prior.
Herrera has been strong this season, not walking a single batter through 14.2 innings. He has a 0.61 ERA, 2.13 FIP, and 0.61 WHIP in 16 outings. His performance will make him a worthwhile acquisition for any team that may acquire him, including Philadelphia.
Blake Treinen
Blake Treinen was on the move last season as he was traded from the Nationals along with a pair of minor-leaguers to the Athletics for Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. He had a solid start to his career in Washington before an abysmal start to the 2017 season. Treinen rebounded after being traded to Oakland and could soon be on the move again this season.
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Since joining the Athletics last year, Treinen has a 1.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 47 appearances. Treinen has served as Oakland’s closer, recording 19 saves in 24 opportunities. He has been the team’s most valuable reliever the last two seasons combined.
Treinen is posting some of the best numbers of his career this season with a 1.04 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate.
He currently ranks 20th out of 195 relievers in fWAR with 0.5. With Oakland falling behind in the AL West, they may be willing to part with the 29-year-old reliever.
Brad Ziegler
Brad Ziegler has bounced around the league in his career, pitching for four teams in his 11-year career. He has been effective for most of his career, but he set a career high with a 4.79 ERA last season for the Marlins. That ERA is even higher this year at 6.06, indicating the 38-year-old may be on the decline.
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However, Ziegler’s underlying numbers have been strong this year. He has walked just 2.7 percent of opposing hitters and has a 2.84 xFIP. He has an even lower skill-independent ERA (SIERA) of just 2.10. He has suffered from an abnormally high 33.3 percent home run to fly ball ratio, which has led to his high ERA.
The Phillies, being the analytically-inclined team they are, may see this and acquire Ziegler should other potential deals fall through or prove to be too expensive. Ziegler is owed $9 million this season, and the Marlins have no shame of shedding as much salary as possible. He likely wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects as a one-year rental.
At worst, Ziegler provides another option in the bullpen if injuries continue to plague Philadelphia.
Next: Two Prospects on the Rise and Two on the Decline
These are only a few options to boost the bullpen. There are still more than two months until the trade deadline, so who will be available will become clearer as teams either fall out of playoff contention or put themselves back in the conversation.