Phillies: Which free agent starting pitcher best fits the rebuild?
Can the Phillies chip away at the cold stove going into Clearwater?
Phillies general manager Matt Klentak has been immune to the frigid offseason felt across Major League Baseball. Having traded a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop and signing three second-tier free agents Klentak has put the Phillies in a good position heading towards the 2018 season.
The one piece Klentak has openly stressed over is a starting pitcher to stabilize the rotation for 2018 and beyond. Aside from Aaron Nola the questions surrounding the starting rotation outweigh the answers needed for Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Jerad Eickhoff, Mark Leiter Jr., and Nick Pivetta.
Many veteran pieces remain on the free agent market, and Klentak appears destined to sign at least one of them. Does one make more sense than the others?
Jake Arrieta is the top name on the market three seasons removed from a Cy Young campaign with Chicago. At 32-years-old by Opening Day Arrieta brings a championship pedigree backed by nine playoff starts and a World Series ring with the Cubs.
Arrieta has connections within the Phillies organization, primarily in the front office with Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak having drafted him with the Orioles.
Knowing he’s likely entering the final major contract of his career, Arrieta is looking for long-term security in terms of years guaranteed and average annual value. Philadelphia can afford to maximize Arrieta’s contract financially, but the years are likely an issue. Arrieta has already begun signs of falling off being on the wrong side of 30 with his ERA jumping from 1.77 in 2015 to 3.53 last year. According to Brooks Baseball, every single one of Arrieta’s pitches lost velocity since his 2015 season.
Jake Arrieta's velocity has dipped ever since his Cy Young season in 2015, per @brooksbaseball pic.twitter.com/Y2muQUJ0XC
— PHILLIES TBOH (@FS_TBOH) February 7, 2018
If the Phillies can somehow get Arrieta for three years with a vesting option it’ll be a great addition to a young starting rotation looking for an identity. If it’s anything longer than three years it could hurt them down the road, similar to how the Diamondbacks are tied to Zach Greinke.
Among the top starting pitchers on the free agent market Yu Darvish has little to no connection to the Phillies. Ken Rosenthal reported in January the organization checked in on him, but little has been heard of since. He’s expected to earn over $20 million annually, but should a team give into that number?
The 31-year-old Japanese All-Star had three outstanding seasons in Texas that nearly secured him a Rookie of the Year and Cy Young award. Elbow surgery cost him the entire 2015 season and potentially some of the magic that made Darvish the star he was.
Darvish is an established veteran pitcher who has historically struggled in the postseason. That won’t matter as much to Philadelphia with their current status, and it may, in fact, help them if contenders completely shun Darvish. There hasn’t been much said of Darvish being a leader in the clubhouse or a mentor to younger pitchers, which doesn’t fit the Phillies model.
Between the injuries and financial demands, it doesn’t appear likely the Phillies add Darvish this offseason. If push comes to shove and Darvish is available in late March, the Phillies could offer him a one-year deal with an option for an astronomical amount of money.
Lance Lynn is quietly one of the best options on the market this offseason, and has received interest from the Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, and Brewers. Lynn turned down the Cardinals $17.1 million qualifying offer, setting his market price around $18-20 million annually.
Lynn underwent Tommy John surgery in November of 2015, forcing him to miss the entire 2016 season with St. Louis. In 183 career appearances, Lynn has a respectable 3.38 ERA averaging 193 innings and 182 strikeouts over six seasons.
What you see is what you get with Lynn, who won a World Series with St. Louis in 2011, but did not appear in the Divisional Series against Philadelphia.
In most major league rotations, Lynn is a solid number three and a below-average number two. Turning 31-years-old in May, Lynn would be a quality veteran pitching behind Aaron Nola and ahead of Jerad Eickhoff in the three spot.
Should Klentak offer Lynn $85 million over four years it could sway the righty to give Philadelphia a chance.
A history of injuries has limited Alex Cobb’s career with the Tampa Bay Rays to just 700 innings over seven years and 115 starts. A freak injury against Kansas City when Eric Hosmer lined a ball off Cobb’s head resulted in a mild concussion and a cut on his right ear.
Tommy John surgery forced him to miss all of 2015 and the majority of 2016 with just five dreadful starts. After reinventing himself going into the 2017 season Cobb set career highs in wins, innings pitched, and starts.
Despite his history of freak injuries, Cobb has excellent upside at the age of 30. He’s been heavily connected to his former manager Joe Maddon in Chicago, but reportedly turned down a three-year deal worth $42 million.
Philadelphia can certainly afford Cobb, who also turned down a one-year qualifying offer from Tampa Bay worth $17.1 million. It’ll be a deal similar to Lynn’s and slightly higher than what the Cubs offered.
Would Cobb want to go from a rebuilding team in Tampa Bay to another rebuild in Philadelphia? Chicago is certainly a better situation for him, and quality offers from the Brewers and Twins are likely.
Despite being closer to 40 than 30 Jason Vargas posted the best season of his career while leading the American League with 18 wins and earning his first All-Star appearance.
Turning 35-years-old this offseason Vargas certainly isn’t someone the team projects to be around for a playoff run. His upside comes down to experience over 12 seasons with the Marlins, Mets, Mariners, Royals, and Angels.
With 150 innings pitched just six times in his career and 200 innings only twice he’s comparable to veterans the team has brought in such as Charlie Morton and Clay Buchholz.
Vargas lands in the same category of back-end boom or bust starters yet to be signed: Jeremy Hellickson, Jaime Garcia, Chris Tillman, Andrew Cashner, Ubaldo Jimenez, John Lackey, Anibal Sanchez, and Matt Garza.
Next: Top 10 Phillies Pitchers of the Last 10 Years
I find it doubtful any of those players would sign a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, but that’s the most I’d offer them right now.