Phillies: Will 2018 Be the Year of Aaron Nola?

Opening Day is so close we can almost taste it. But like all great meals before must come the appetizers, Spring Training. But even closer is the very start of the season.

Phillies pitchers and catchers will report to Clearwater Florida on February 14th. While the upcoming season is improving the Phillies chances at landing Arietta or Darvish, the odds are still unlikely.

This leaves some unanswered questions for the 2018 rotation. While the team could still sign someone like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, they would fill in second or third man spots in the rotation. Thus leaving Aaron Nola to top off the staff. But is he ready for a career year?

Nola was initially drafted out of high school by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011 but opted to attend LSU where he would be drafted seventh overall by the Phillies three years later. He made his way through the minors remarkably quick, making his major league debut just 13 months later. He would throw six one-run innings allowing five hits while punching out six batters.

While he would take the loss he’d finish the year on a 6-1 run, with an impressive 3.59 ERA in his rookie year.

His sophomore season would not be as easy sailing for the righty. Nola finished the year 6-9 with a 4.78 ERA. However, those stats seem good compared to the tough stretch Nola face June and July.

In June he went 1-3 with a walloping 10.42 ERA in five starts, giving up 22 runs in just 19 innings, averaging less than four per game. July was just slightly better finishing 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA. He finished the rough nine starts 2-5 with an 8.31 ERA.

While 2017 was undoubtedly a bounce back year it was still filled with up and downs. It started off rough in April and May, going 2-3 with a 6.18 ERA. But in July he was unbelievable. In a career month, he went 3-1, 43 strikeouts in 34 innings, and gave up just five runs with a 1.32 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies

Nola came back to earth to finish the year but still finished a solid 12-11 with 184 strikeouts and a 3.54 ERA. If every game was played at the Bank he would’ve been a Cy Young candidate going 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA at home.

So will he make the jump to ace in 2018? All Phillies fans should pray he doesn’t have too. Right now Nola would be a great two man. If the Phillies could bring in Jake Arrieta, a veteran used to playing with young players, Nola would likely benefit the most. He would be able to shadow the former Cy Young winner for likely three years. He could improve upon how to study batters, managing situations, work ethic, off-speed pitches and all around improve his game.

Now we could go to a little hypothetical. Three years from now Nola would be entering the 2021 season at age 27. He would have finished learning from one of the games best righties and would be ready to take the reigns as the staff ace. Then after a career year the Phillies could lock him down for five years when he enters free agency the following offseason.

Now Nola would progress through his career as one of the NL’s top pitchers in what will likely be a weaker NL East.

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So when will the year of Aaron Nola be? While it would ideally be that 2021 season the odds of Nola being the second man due to a free agent signing are doubtful. As of now, it seems the Phillies Wild Card chances will ride on the staff and Aaron Nola as they enter the 2018 season.