SARASOTA, FL- MARCH 09: The Phillie Phanatic taunts the Toronto Blue Jays on March 9, 2017 at Spectrum Field in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
SARASOTA, FL- MARCH 09: The Phillie Phanatic taunts the Toronto Blue Jays on March 9, 2017 at Spectrum Field in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
Every year, a few Phillies prospects take a significant step forward in their development and have a breakout season. Which ones could do that in 2018?
The Phillies have continued to produce top-tier prospects every year. Each season, a few take a huge step forward in their development and rocket up prospect rankings.
In 2016, it was Rhys Hoskins and Sixto Sanchez taking center stage. Last year, it was Scott Kingery, Tom Eshelman, and Jhailyn Ortiz all taking step forwards. The question is: who will be those players in 2018?
Since being drafted in the first round back in 2015, Cornelius Randolph has had high expectations placed on him. He was drafted as a hit-first prospect, moving from shortstop to left field. Since then, he hasn’t put up the gaudy numbers of a first-round pick whose best asset is his ability to hit.
The first two years of Randolph’s minor-league career, he hit for a solid average but had no power. He hit a combined three home runs between the Gulf Coast League and Low-A Lakewood. Then, he finally showed his raw power with 13 home runs in High-A in 2017, but his average dipped and strikeout rate spiked.
Randolph still hasn’t found a way to put all the pieces together offensively. However, he is likely going to play in Double-A Reading in 2017, the place where every Phillies prospect sees their offensive numbers spike. Randolph could very well hit 20+ home runs in Reading and certainly have a breakout there.
Well, I was wrong. Brito had a strong April, posting a .327/.377/.449 line. However, his batting average on balls in play was .420 that month, and everything fell apart once that lowered. Brito finished the year with a .239 average and .615 OPS.
Brito is a solid defender at second base, but that’s not enough to get to the majors. Scouts like his hit tool, but Brito’s strikeout rate jumped and his walk rate dropped compared to 2016. He was 2.5 years younger than the average player in the South Atlantic League, so perhaps with another year of experience he can perform better.
Brito still has that same smooth hit stroke, he just needs to improve physically. He will likely have another year in Lakewood and just turned 20 years old. Players often find more success in their second year at a certain level, and Brito has the raw talent to find a breakout year.
Connor Seabold
The Phillies went heavy on college pitchers early on in the draft last year. One of the first they picked was Cal State Fullerton’s Connor Seabold in the third round.
Seabold logged 127.2 innings during the spring at Fullerton, so he didn’t pitch much after being drafted. He made five appearances in short-season Williamsport, logging 10 innings. He struck out 13 batters in and walked just two. They were strong numbers, but it was a small sample size.
Seabold is often compared to Eshelman, who had his breakout in 2017. Seabold is seen as a No. 4 starter who could move up the ladder quickly, so a start in Lakewood is likely. Plenty of other pitchers had strong seasons there last year, so Seabold could follow that trend.
Spencer Howard
Spencer Howard was Philadelphia’s second-round draft pick last year. While his 4.45 ERA may not indicate it, he pitched well in Williamsport. Howard’s 2.73 fielding-independent pitching looks much better as opposing hitters had a .349 batting average on balls in play. He struck out 32.5 percent of opposing batters.
Howard’s walk rate was ridiculously high at 5.72 batters per nine innings, but a few bad innings really spiked that rate. His control wasn’t an issue coming out of college, so that rate should go down in 2018.
When Howard hits Lakewood, we will get a much longer look at what he can do as a professional. If that strikeout rate remains high and the walk rate falls back to normal levels, Howard should be able to dominate Low-A hitters.
2017 was supposed to be the breakout for Elniery Garcia before an arm injury and PED suspension made him miss most of the season. When he came back to Reading, he had a 1.75 ERA in five starts, which looks good on the surface. However, his FIP was 4.55 and he walked more batters than he struck out (10 strikeouts compared to 17 walks in 25.2 innings).
The club sent him to the Arizona Fall League to try and make up for some of the time he missed. He made four starts, logging 14 innings. Garcia walked four batters, struck out 13, and allowed nine runs.
Garcia was removed from the 40-man roster to protect other prospects this offseason and other lefties have moved ahead of him in the system. For Garcia to get his chance at the majors, he will need to get back to his late 2016 form. If he returns to that form, his breakout could come, just a year later than expected.
