PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 18: J.P. Crawford #2 of the Philadelphia Phillies hive fives his teammates in the dugout after throwing out Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (NOT PICTURED) in the top of the eighth inning at Citizens Bank Park on September 18, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Dodgers 4-3. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 16: Jorge Alfaro #38 of the Philadelphia Phillies points skyward after his two-run homer against the Oakland Athletics during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park on September 16, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images) /
The top 20 prospects in the Phillies system are all talented, but the ones in the top five all have the chance to be tremendous players in the future, starting with catcher Jorge Alfaro at No. 5.
Since Carlos Ruiz started to decline, the Phillies have gotten little production from the catching position. That could all change in the near future as Jorge Alfaro becomes the starter behind the plate next season.
Alfaro has been in the minor-leagues for eight seasons now, and he finally got his first extended look in the majors this year. In 29 games, Alfaro posted a .318/.360/.514 line with five home runs and six doubles. His 127 wRC+ was second-highest on the team among players with 110 or more plate appearances.
While Alfaro definitely showed power potential, his approach at the plate is still a clear work-in-progress. In his major-league stint this year, he swung at 46.2 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, swung at 61.9 percent of all pitches, and swung and missed on 21.5 percent of pitches. All of these rates were well above league-average, leading to a 28.9 percent strikeout rate and 2.6 percent walk rate. This lack of plate discipline certainly lessens Alfaro’s offensive potential.
Defensively, Alfaro has a very strong arm that he can use to throw out runners trying to steal bases. While he still has to hone in the finer aspects of catching, he has improved every year since joining the Phillies. That trend should continue next year in the majors as Alfaro and Andrew Knapp are expected to be the two major-league catchers on Opening Day.
No. 4: Right-handed pitcher Adonis Medina
The two pitchers in this part of the list both have the potential to be impact players at the major-league level. The first of these two is 20-year-old Adonis Medina.
Last year in short-season Williamsport, Medina showed a strong fastball and ground-ball rate but wasn’t able to strike many guys out and walked far more batters than would be hoped for a guy who relies on getting ground ball outs.
This season, that narrative shifted as Sanchez more than doubled his strikeout rate in Low-A Lakewood, collecting 10 strikeouts per nine innings. In addition, his walk rate lowered from nine percent to 7.4 percent. He ultimately finished the year with a 3.01 ERA, 3.34 fielding-independent pitching, and 1.19 WHIP in 22 starts.
That large jump in strikeouts came from a major improvement in his secondary pitches. Medina’s changeup went from being around average to being a consistent plus pitch. His slider continues to flash plus and is consistently a good offering. His command is still a little shaky, but he showed improvement this year and he has more than enough stuff to work with.
After a full season in Low-A, Medina should start the year in High-A Clearwater and potentially get a chance to test Double-A Reading by the end of the year.
Kingery was then promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley where he hit eight more home runs and had a .786 OPS in 63 games there. His 10 stolen bases in Triple-A combined with 19 previously in Reading made him a 20-20 player for the season.
Kingery has that 20-20 potential in the majors with the speed and instincts to steal well more than 20 bases per season. He is a plus hitter, which should allow him to hit for a high average. Kingery showed improved power at the plate this year, which could also translate to the majors and gives him 20-homer potential.
Hopes are high enough for Kingery that many people feel comfortable trading starting second baseman Cesar Hernandez this offseason knowing Kingery can fill that role at some point next year. While Kingery probably won’t be major-league ready Opening Day (and doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster), he should see considerable time in the majors in 2018.
No. 2: Right-handed pitcher Sixto Sancehz
Sixto Sanchez wasn’t even the prospect the Phillies were scouting when they first stumbled upon him, but they knew they had to sign him. Since then, Sanchez has emerged not only as the top pitching prospect in the system, but one of the best among all teams.
Sanchez first made waves last year in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League with a dominating fastball and strong command. This season in Low-A Lakewood, Sanchez was among one of the best pitchers in the league with a 2.41 ERA, 2.35 fielding-independent pitching and 7.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 starts.
Less than a week after turning 19, Sanchez was promoted to High-A Clearwater, where he was 5.1 years younger than the average player. He made five starts there but wasn’t as effective, finishing his time there with a 4.55 ERA. While his walk rate as a whole was significantly higher, five of his nine walks came in one rain-shortened start. Considering his age, his performance in five High-A starts shouldn’t be any cause for concern.
Sanchez’s fastball is among the hardest-thrown in the minors, especially among starters. It consistently sits in the mid-90s and can hit 100 miles per hour.
Sanchez should be back in Clearwater to start next year before moving up to Double-A, potentially still as a 19-year-old. Any pitching prospect that can do that should be considered among the best in baseball.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 18: J.P. Crawford #2 of the Philadelphia Phillies hive fives his teammates in the dugout after throwing out Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (NOT PICTURED) in the top of the eighth inning at Citizens Bank Park on September 18, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Dodgers 4-3. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
No. 1: Shortstop J.P. Crawford
In my midseason version of this list, I had J.P. Crawford as the seventh-best prospect in the system. He had struggled to hit the first two months of the season and many major prospect outlets had written him off entirely. Hopes for Crawford’s future were down considerably. However, all the negative talk surrounding Crawford was just motivation for him:
After that tweet, Crawford went on a tear, hitting .287/.385/.513 with nine home runs, 29 runs batted in, and 35 runs scored in 51 games. Rather than playing with Lehigh Valley in the International League playoffs, he was promoted to get his first taste of the major-leagues.
In the majors, Crawford continued to walk at a high rate of 18.4 percent, leading to a .356 on-base percentage. Despite having all-around decent plate discipline numbers, Crawford still had a 25.3 percent strikeout rate, leading to a .214 batting average. Considering his strikeout numbers throughout his minor-league career, even at his worst, it’s hard to imagine that trend continuing.
Crawford only got to play six games at shortstop because of Pete Mackain’s hesitance to pull Freddy Galvis from the starting lineup. Instead, he spent most of his time at third base in place of the struggling Maikel Franco.
Next year, Crawford could wind up at any one of shorstop, third, or second base depending on what the team does in the offseason. He is defensively sound enough to play all of those positions well, but he is best suited at shortstop. Crawford may not be the same Gold-Glove caliber defender Galvis is, but he’s still a plus defender at the position.
Even if Crawford doesn’t start next year as the everyday shortstop, that will ultimately be his role with the team. His turnaround in the second half of the year should ease concerns about his ability to hit as he moves up the ladder. He will be 23 years old next season, making him one of the youngest players on a team full of young players.
