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Ben Lively pitching himself into the Phillies 2018 rotation

By John Town |
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 26: Ben Lively #49 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on August 26, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 26: Ben Lively #49 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on August 26, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

While Ben Lively came into this season without much fanfare as a prospect, he has emerged as a solid candidate for the 2018 Phillies rotation.

It’s safe to say there aren’t a whole lot of bright spots in the Phillies rotation this season. Injuries decimated what was supposed to be the strength of the team with 10 different starters being used this season with potentially an 11th if Henderson Alvarez starts Sunday. This season has left more questions than answers in the rotation.

One pitcher that made a step forward this season is the 25-year-old Ben Lively. He came to Philadelphia after the 2014 season as the lone return for Marlon Byrd. It took two and a half years since then for Lively to make his major-league debut, but he has been perhaps the best among this team’s group of rookie/second-year starters.

Lively had a strong start to his career, going seven innings in each of his first three major-league starts. His next few starts were spotty and he went back down to Triple-A Lehigh Valley July 9.

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Lively returned to the majors Aug. 20 when Zach Eflin went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Since returning, Lively has given up more than three runs just once in five starts. His last outing Sep. 10 was an eight-inning complete game, but he took the loss as Philadelphia could only produce two runs in the loss.

One issue Lively had in his first major-league stint was that he failed so strike out batters consistently.

He instead relied on a low home run to fly ball ratio and .290 batting average on balls in play. His 6.01 expected fielding-independent pitching and 5.94 skill-independent ERA indicated that Lively should have been much worse in his first major-league stint.

However, Lively has corrected these issues since returning to the majors, raising his strikeout rate from 9.4 percent in his first stint to 21.4 percent in his current one. Combined with the fact that his walk rate has stayed about the same, Lively has shown major improvement in this regard since re-joining the rotation.

Lively’s impact in the major-league rotation has been felt. His 1.4 bWAR on the mound is second only to Aaron Nola among Phillies starters this season, ahead of guys with far more starts like Jerad Eickhoff and Nick Pivetta.

It should be noted Lively is no slouch with the bat either, hitting two home runs and driving in eight runs at the plate. His 101 OPS+ bests several full-time hitters on the team, although it obviously should be mentioned this is over a span of just 23 plate appearances.

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With his performance this season, Lively has made himself an easy candidate for the major-league rotation next year. With so many holes, it’s not hard to imagine Lively filling one of them next year.

Before we go and assume that Lively should be a lock for the rotation, his issues should be acknowledged. For starters, he has a below-league-average ground ball rate of 37.6 percent and a 33.0 percent ground ball rate in his current span of major-league starts. Combined with a league-average home run to fly ball ratio of 12.2 percent, Lively doesn’t have much room for error in his starts.

Either the ground ball rate has to go up or his HR/FB ratio needs to go down if he wants to be effective as a long-term starter.

Also, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs pointed out a noteworthy flaw in Lively’s game in his Phillies prospect rankings prior to this season: [italicized for emphasis]

Lively sits at 88-92, touching 94, with good armside fastball command but really struggles to work anything to his glove side. That makes it especially difficult for Lively, whose secondaries are fringey, to get lefties out. He’s got a fringe curve and changeup and is more of a high-volume strike thrower than surgical command righty like Eshelman is. A fifth-starter/up-and-down arm.

So far in the majors, that criticism of Lively has rung true. He has a 3.94 fielding-independent pitching and 1.14 WHIP against righties but a ghastly 5.42 FIP and 1.44 WHIP against lefties. His walk rate is twice as high against lefties and his strikeout rate is 5.1 percent lower against lefties compared to righties. If Eric and I can view this information, you can bet opposing scouts and managers will see it and opponents will load their lineups with every lefty they have when Lively is scheduled to start, limiting his effectiveness.

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For all his flaws, Lively has been a lot better than most of the other pitchers the Phillies have used this season. They are at the point where they need to evaluate the talent they have, and Lively has done more than enough to warrant a deeper look next season in the rotation.

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