Five reasons why the Phillies are done making deadline trades
The Phillies made their first significant deadline trade in two years when they sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies, but they are probably done.
The Phillies are definitely sellers at this year’s trade deadline as the worst team in MLB. The shoe has already dropped for them, trading Pat Neshek to the Rockies Wednesday night. The team received three low-level prospects in exchange for Neshek and may be looking for more before the trade deadline Monday.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies are done making deals before July 31. There a couple reasons why, so let’s take a dive into them:
Daniel Nava’s hamstring strain
This first reason is pretty obvious, but it’s a reason nonetheless. Daniel Nava landed on the disabled list Wednesday with a hamstring strain. He isn’t eligible to be activated until Aug. 2, and it’s unlikely a team will want to trade for Nava while injured.
Before the injury, Nava could conceivably be a trade asset. In 65 games (starting 32), Nava has a .303/.400/.408 line with 10 extra-base hits, a 13.3 percent walk rate, and 18.3 percent walk rate. He has played mostly left field this season, although he has seen time in right and at first base.
Considering Nava’s ability to reach base this year, a team could have pushed to acquire Nava for a lower-level prospect so he could be on said team’s bench in a playoff run. This may still happen in August, but he will have to pass through trade waivers first.
Howie Kendrick’s injury history
When Howie Kendrick has been on the field this season, he has been one of the Phillies best hitters. He has a .340/.397/.454 line with two home runs, 16 RBI, and eight stolen bases. He has been worth 1.0 fWAR in just 39 games, so if he had played all year, he may be the team’s best player overall.
However, Kendrick has missed a lot of time due to injury. He missed more than a month and a half earlier this season with an abdominal strain. He just returned a week ago from a hamstring strain that cost him three weeks of action. Wednesday night he suffered a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch and is currently day-to-day with that injury.
Due to Kendrick’s limited action this season, a trade for him may have to come in August as well. An executive told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN that Kendrick is a guy who is more likely to be traded in August than in July. He would have to clear waivers as well, and considering how well he has performed, clearing them is by no means certain.
Joaquin Benoit’s poor season
Joaquin Benoit, like Neshek, was brought in this season for the sole purpose of being flipped at the deadline. The hope was he could pitch like the Benoit of 2016 that was with the Blue Jays and not with the Mariners. Unfortunately, that plan has not gone well.
Benoit actually started off the year well with a 2.31 ERA in 11.2 innings in April. Since then, his ERA is up to 4.97 with a 4.08 FIP and 4.82 xFIP. Overall this season, Benoit has walked 9.6 percent of opposing hitters and leaves just 70.7 percent of runners on base.
It’s hard to imagine any team reaching out to the Phillies for Benoit, an average-at-best season that is saved mostly by a strong April. Benoit just turned 40, and the market is saturated with better, younger relievers. The best the team could probably get for Benoit is minor-league fodder, and at that point there’s no real value in trading Benoit versus keeping him the rest of the year.
Jeremy Hellickson’s inconsistency
Remember in April when Jeremy Hellickson was one of the best pitchers in the National League? When he had a 1.80 ERA, four wins, 0.80 WHIP, and 86.2 percent left on base rate? Whelp, that has fallen apart.
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Since April, Hellickson has a 5.79 ERA, 6.13 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 15.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.6 percent walk rate. Hellickson’s low strikeout rate in April finally came back to bite him as the batted balls started finding holes and he started walking batters.
After his strong start to the season, Hellickson has bounced between strong and poor outings. He has gone past the sixth inning just twice since May and has allowed two runs or less just four times in 15 starts.
Without any consistency, Hellickson’s trade value seems dead. He has one last start Friday night to showcase his value, but you never know what will happen with him this season. Even then, there are better pitchers on the trade market this year – Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander, and Yu Darvish – who teams are more likely to want over Hellickson.
Big moves probably won’t come until the winter
Beyond the rentals the Phillies have, there a couple players on the roster who are still under team control for some time and may garner some trade interest.
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Cesar Hernandez may be the most prominent of these players because of the presence of top prospect Scott Kingery. Hernandez has been a solid player the last two seasons with solid defense at second and an above-average ability to get on base. He is under team control through 2020 and is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter.
Odubel Herrera is also listed as a potential trade asset with the team’s outfield prospects, but moving him isn’t as likely considering his long-term extension and the fact that he has been the team’s best player since coming to Philadelphia in 2015.
Even then, there may be a chance he is moved as a rift grows between him and the club.
Tommy Joseph could be on the move as well with Rhys Hoskins primed to come to the majors and they could market Joseph’s power potential with two straight 20 home run seasons likely. His value isn’t that high, but he could be on the move.
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Trades involving young, controllable players often happen during the offseason at the winter meetings. Matt Klentak will likely listen to offers on these players, but he is no rush to move them as potential trades could stretch out to the winter.