Philadelphia Phillies 2017 mid-season top ten prospect list

With more than half of the minor-league season already finished, it’s time to take a look at the top ten Phillies prospects at this point in time.

With little talent at the major-league level, the Phillies will have to rely on their minor-league system to fill out the major-league roster in the coming years. Thankfully, they are fairly deep in terms of prospects. While there isn’t any one player that stands out as a future Corey Seager or Andrew Benintendi, they are deep in players that can be above-average major-leaguers.

Filling out a top-ten list was hard for me because the order could be swapped around a lot and there a couple players that could very well slot in. You’re more than welcome to disagree with my list, and you could make a strong argument. Hell, I’d probably believe you. Regardless, here are the Phillies top ten prospects as we stand in the middle of the 2017 season.

No. 10: RHP Franklyn Kilome

I’ve been a fan of Franklyn Kilome’s since I first started writing about the Phillies two years ago on my own self-started blog that was absolute garbage. Even now I’m still a fan of everything Kilome has to offer, he just hasn’t had the breakout year that puts him on the radar.

In 16 starts with High-A Clearwater this year, Kilome has a 2.59 ERA, 3.56 fielding-independent pitching, and 1.36 WHIP. In 80 innings he has struck out 68 and walked 32 batters. A lot of his batted ball numbers are similar to last year in Lakewood, but his lowered strikeout rate has hurt his more advanced numbers.

Kilome’s control has always been the limiting factor of his development as he continues to walk batters at a poor rate. His above-average stuff and strikeout ability have allowed him to succeed, but that will run out as he faces more advanced hitters.

Kilome has a high-90s fastball and plus curve that offer a solid one-two punch. He’s developing a changeup, but it hasn’t become the effective third pitch he needs to be a starter. Without that chanegup, his ceiling is limited in the rotation, and if he can’t find his control, he could wind up in the bullpen. However, the potential is there, if all the pieces fit together, to be an effective mid-to-top of the rotation starter in the future.

Since Kilome was signed in 2013, he will have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this offseason. There’s no reason to think he would be left unprotected as he could likely be stashed away in a bullpen and has more than enough potential to warrant interest from other teams.

No. 9: C Jorge Alfaro

I feel really bad having Jorge Alfaro this low on the list, but with several other prospects jumping off the page this season and with Alfaro not posting any standout numbers, he has fallen down the list.

Alfaro actually started off the season well, shining in the World Baseball Classic. He hit a game-tying home run against the Domincan Republic and showcased his rocket arm catching Freddie Freeman stealing. However, Colombia didn’t advance beyond the first group, so Alfaro only got to play in three games.

April was a great month for Alfaro as he posted a .333/.368/.528 slash line and hit three home runs in 18 games. Since then, he has struggled with a .583 OPS and 32.5 percent strikeout rate.

Alfaro’s strikeout rate has worsened this year as he has struck out 30.7 percent of the time this year. It’s probably always going to be bad, but the hope is that it won’t be this bad in the future.

Alfaro’s defense is another key part of his development and one of the main reasons he is still in the minors this season. Tom Housenick of the Morning Call wrote earlier during the season that Alfaro’s game behind the plate is progressing, slowly but surely.

This is Alfaro’s last year as a prospect as he is out of years he can be optioned back to the minors without being exposed to waivers. That means he will be in the majors next year one way or another, and how well he fares will depend on his progress this season.

Alfaro’s floor is a strong defensive catcher with raw power that he can tap into at times, but if he can improve his hit tool as he gets used to the major-leagues, he can be an above-average regular or even more.

No. 8: RF Dylan Cozens

Dylan Cozens made waves last season when he finally put all the pieces together and his raw power really started to show up in games, hitting a minor-league-leading 40 home runs with Double-A Reading.

This year Cozens is on pace to hit a tremendous amount of home runs yet again, but his other numbers have fallen off. Cozens has 22 home runs in 93 games but also has a .238/.315/.479 slash line with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. His numbers are slightly worse among lefties, but his platoon splits aren’t as severe as they were last year.

Cozens’ home run ability and walk rate keep his numbers solid, but his strikeout rate and low batting average are concerning. Last year in Reading Cozens could push a lot of balls out of the park, but now those fly balls are landing in outfielder’s gloves with a significantly lower home run per fly ball rate.

Cozens has raw power that few can match and seems like he can apply it in game well. However, he strikes out a lot which hurts his batting average and on-base percentage. That may not matter for Cozens as this league is gravitating towards the all-or-nothing approach that Cozens has.

Cozens could thrive off the home run ball even if he strikes out a lot and fans will learn to live with it. How well he hits overall depends on if he can collect hits on more than just home runs or if he is only a fly ball hitter.

No. 7: SS J.P. Crawford

No prospect has had a more precipitous fall from grace this season than J.P. Crawford. He went from being the team’s consensus No. 1 prospect and one of the top prospects in all of baseball to barely making it onto the Baseball America mid-season Top 100. BA’s editor, John Manuel, said the staff no longer considers him an impact player and several wanted him off the Top 100 altogether.

This fall has stemmed from the fact that Crawford has struggled to hit at Triple-A despite more than a full season’s worth of games. In 168 career games in Triple-A, Crawford has posted an unimpressive .233/.331/.339 slash line with eight home runs and nine stolen bases. None of those are numbers you would expect from a top-tier prospect.

This season, while Crawford has continued to struggle, there have been some bright spots still. He has doubled his home run total from last season in Triple-A in six fewer games, leading to a higher slugging percentage and OPS. Crawford is also walking more, which means his on-base percentage is higher even though his batting average is lower.

Perhaps the best sign that Crawford can bounce back is his hitting from the last month. Crawford missed two weeks with a groin injury, which he said helped clear his head and bring himself back around. Since June 20, Crawford has a .283/.383/.609 line with a 14 percent walk rate, 15 percent strikeout rate, six home runs, and 15 extra-base hits. This month of action has been Crawford’s best in Triple-A yet.

If Crawford can continue this success through the rest of 2017, he should recover some of his top prospect status. Next season Crawford will be 23 years old and on the 40-man roster because he is Rule 5 eligible this year. If he continues this recent success, he could force the team’s hand and make them decide between Freddy Galvis and Crawford as the team’s starting shortstop.

No. 6: OF Adam Haseley

The Phillies had the No. 8 overall pick in this year’s draft and could have gone with several different players. They wound up choosing Virginia outfielder Adam Haseley one pick after his teammate Pavin Smith went to the Diamondbacks.

Haseley was praised during the draft for his strong hit tool which checks all the boxes. As a whole hit grades out as above-average with average power that he should be able to apply in games. Defensively, Haseley has above average speed with an average arm that could both help him stick in center. However, he may wind up moving to a corner in the future where there will be more pressure on his bat to succeed.

After signing with the Phillies, Haseley started off his professional career in the Gulf Coast League and dominated as he should. He moved up to short-season Williamsport and is off to a strong start there as well. In 14 games, he has a .327/.429/.462 line and is barreling up the ball well, hitting line drives 39 percent of the time.

Haseley probably could have started in Low-A Lakewood, but he would have to jostle for playing time with last year’s first-round pick, Mickey Moniak. At some point, the two will battle with each other for playing time in center field, which could prompt Haseley’s move to a corner sooner than expecetd.

No. 5: 1B Rhys Hoskins

This is the fun part of writing these prospect lists. Rhys Hoskins‘ monster 2016 season (38 home runs, .943 OPS) is only continuing into this season. Through 93 games in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Hoskins has 20 home runs and a .286/.381/.559 line. Hoskins has cooled off and in a bit of a slump this month, but as a whole his season has been very successful.

In each of the last three seasons Hoskins has done nothing but hit and continues to do so at the highest level of minor-league baseball. His patient, controlled approach is the complete opposite of his counterpart Dylan Cozens but still produces and is more sustainable.

Hoskins represented the Phillies at the MLB Futures Game this season and was the U.S. Team’s cleanup hitter and starting first baseman. He went 1-for-2 and was hit by a pitch but did leave one runner on base.

Hoskins has done everything he could in the minor-leagues and is deserving of a major-league audition. However, the team has Tommy Joseph manning first in the majors and doesn’t want to move him to the bench. There is speculation that Joseph could be on the move at the trade deadline, which would clear up a spot for Hoskins.

Regardless of what happens this year, Hoskins will have to be added to the 40-man this winter and will push for a major-league role in spring training. If he hits like he has been, the Phillies would be stupid not to put him in the majors.

No. 3: RHP Sixto Sanchez

Sixto Sanchez still has yet to turn 19 years old and is already the Phillies’ best pitching prospect. He jumped off the page last season when he debuted stateside in the Gulf Coast League. This year he has continued to succeed in Low-A Lakewood and if anything has even got slightly better.

In 11 starts this year, Sanchez has a 2.88 ERA with an even better 2.32 fielding-independent pitching. So far this year he has struck out nearly a quarter of opposing hitters while walking less than three percent. Opposing hitters are hitting just .196 against Sanchez and he has a 0.83 WHIP.

Sanchez’s arsenal is what makes him so dominant despite his youth. He throws in the high-90s consistently and often hits 100 mph. In his July 12 start he even hit 102 on multiple occasions. Combined with his above-average command, especially for his age, that fastball is deadly. Both of his secondary pitches, his curve and slider, have the potential to be above-average and catch hitters trying to sit on Sanchez’s fastball off-guard.

Sanchez is still well away from the majors with MLB.com projecting him to reach Philadelphia in 2020. He has all the potential to be an impact starter but he needs to continue along his development curve for him to reach that ceiling.

No. 2: OF Nick Williams

Nick Williams was an enigma in 2016 with little plate discipline, hurting his overall numbers and causing him to fall down prospect lists. Williams was trying to hit his way to Philadelphia and it only hurt him, so he had to change his thinking this season.

This year in Triple-A, Williams didn’t press and just honed his craft, and it worked. In 78 games this year, Williams hit for a .280/.328/.511 line with 15 home runs and a surprisingly decent – for Williams, at least – 5.2 percent walk rate. His work in Triple-A was finished and it was time for a promotion.

Williams finally got his chance to strut his stuff in the major-leagues when Howie Kendrick landed on the disabled list for the second time this year. He jumped right in and instantly became a productive piece in the lineup. Through 16 major-league games, Williams has a .316/.349/.614 line with three home runs and 12 RBI already under his belt. It took some time and patience, but Williams finally looks like the hitter this team has needed for so long.

With Aaron Altherr out for some time, Williams will be in the lineup everyday for at least a month while Altherr’s hamstring heals. So far, Williams has been an apt replacement for Altherr in the lineup and should exceed his rookie status this season.

No. 1: OF Mickey Moniak

The Phillies were rewarded for their league-worst record in 2015 with the first pick in the 2016 draft and they used that selection on high school outfielder Mickey Moniak. After a solid debut in the GCL last year, the team assigned Moniak to Low-A Lakewood as a soon-to-be 19-year-old to start the season.

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Moniak has been unspectacular in 85 games. He has a .265/.317/.383 line with 21 walks and 71 strikeouts in 355 plate appearances. He has 26 extra-base hits with 31 RBI and has gone for 9-for-14 in stolen base attempts. None of these numbers are great, but it should be noted that Moniak is 2.5 years younger than the average player in the South Atlantic League.

There is still a lot to like about Moniak as a prospect and he projects well as a four-tool player in the major-leagues with the potential for the fifth tool, power as well. He draws comparisons to Christian Yelich at the plate, a consistent masher that the Phillies are rumored to have legitimate interest in.

Moniak is still young and years away from the majors. However, there is plenty to like about him and was regarded by most as the team’s second-best prospect before the season. With J.P. Crawford falling off, Moniak easily slots into the No. 1 spot in the system.

Honorable Mentions

OF Cornelius Randolph

Cornelius Randolph just missed the top ten for me and is hitting well after a slow start to the season. Since May 20, Randolph has an .893 OPS with a 164 wRC+ and 14.5 percent walk rate. There is a lot of pressure on his bat because he is a left fielder – and not a particularly great defensive one – and his ceiling his limited because he doesn’t hit for a whole lot of power. However, if Randolph can hit for a high average, he can make his way to the majors.

RHP Adonis Medina

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Adonis Medina is in his first full season after spending four years in professional baseball but is having a strong season. He is striking out 10.73 batters per nine innings but also walking 3.21 per nine. He is inducing slightly fewer ground balls but that is balanced out by his increased strikeout rate. The fact that Medina is finally showing some strikeout ability is a good thing considering he has fallen behind other pitchers in the system.

RHP Kevin Gowdy

Kevin Gowdy has barely pitched at the professional level due to injury. Last year he pitched just nine innings in the GCL and hasn’t pitched yet this year either. He is on short-season Williamsport’s roster, but has suffered from biceps tendinitis. Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reports that Gowdy will still get some innings this summer, but the clock is ticking. Despite all the injury, Gowdy continues to be one of the better pitching prospects in the system and has the potential to be a consistent mid-rotation starter.

Next: Aaron Altherr injury: What happens to the outfield

OF Roman Quinn

All I want is for Roman Quinn to have one healthy year and show just what he can do when he is healthy. He started off the year well in Triple-A, hitting .274 with a .732 OPS and stealing ten bases in 45 games. Then he strained a ligament in his non-throwing elbow sliding headfirst into third and has not played since May 28. He is rehabbing in Florida currently and is expected back by the end of the month. He has such potential as a leadoff hitter, but he’ll never reach it if he keeps getting injured.