Phillies Opposition Roadblock: Atlanta Braves
Phillies baseball has become a chore to watch
Winning baseball. It is something we had become unaccustomed to over the last month. It was nice to see some of the bats come back to life. The pitching was suspect at moments aside from a positive performance from Ben Lively. It was a nice momentum builder heading on their first trip to the new stadium in Atlanta.
The Giants offense did not appear to be as bad as I originally thought in the first game of the series. It did not take long to realize just who they actually were though. Posey was 3-11 in the series with one RBI in yesterday’s high-scoring affair. He walked twice and struck out twice as well. The Phillies did a nice job holding him at bay in high-impact situations.
Phils Grade: B+
Johnny Cueto did his typical thing on Saturday afternoon. He went six innings, but threw too many pitches to get deeper into a game he was seemingly dominating. He walked no one, while striking out nine Phillies. His three earned runs were the most he gave up since the middle of May. The Phils were able to grind him out for the 112 pitches that pushed him out of the game.
Phils Grade: B+
The Team: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are the NL East’s surprise team of 2017. Their 24-30 record is good enough for second behind the Washington Nationals, whose 10.5 game lead is too comfortable at this time of year.
The offense has posted 245 runs (21st in baseball). Oddly enough, their .266 average is an MLB top ten statistic. The Braves scattered their offensive numbers quite a bit as they come in near the middle of baseball with a .748 OPS. They are not a very powerful team overall and tend to strike out less than most teams.
Pitching has not been a strong point for Atlanta. A team ERA of 4.58 has them sinking toward the bottom of baseball and the 191 walks are near the top ten. The Braves are not far off the Phils’ mark for highest team average (Phils: .273 for worst in baseball and Atlanta: .258 for 22nd in baseball).
Opposing teams’ OPS this season is a solid .768 against Atlanta pitchers. They have allowed 74 homers, which ranks in the bottom ten of baseball.
Defensively, the Braves rank 28th in baseball in fielding percentage. Their 41 errors are tied for next to last in all of baseball. Without Freddie Freeman at first, the defense probably worsens significantly.
Although the Braves have been playing winning baseball, the Phils took care of them earlier in the season and I expect a similar situation this time around in Atlanta.
The Position Player: Matt Kemp
As I considered the offense for the Braves, I was surprised to see the different players that are having success heading into June. Ender Inciarte has found himself heating up to .299/.348/.423 while leading the Braves with 70 hits. Meanwhile, the Brandon Phillips hit parade continued when he left Philly. He is currently at .290/.344/.402 through nearly 170 at bats.
However, the numbers that most caught my eye were those of one Matt Kemp. The righty has found the old stroke that made him a household name during his time with the Dodgers. He is currently slashing a tremendous .335/.369/.580 in 188 at bats with a team leading 30 RBI.
This season, he has been better against righties than he has against southpaws, and solid at home. He is hitting .303 with only two of his ten homers at SunTrust Park.
The Phillies pitcher he has the most success against is the only one he will not face in this series. His 7-11 mark against Jeremy Hellickson will have to wait until later in 2017. He carries in an 0-5 against Aaron Nola and a 2-5 against Jerad Eickhoff. We will have to wait and see how he fairs against newcomers Nick Pivetta and Ben Lively.
Kemp loves to get his arms extended. Do not challenge him on the outer-half right now. He has been red hot when he can extend his strong arms. It will be important for the young Phillies pitchers to locate inside on his hands where he can’t extend the barrel. Oddly enough, he has been able to go down and getting breaking balls this season. Up in the zone? He has struggled tremendously.
He poses the Phils with an interesting matchup this week. When the two teams met in mid-April, the 32 year old was 3-13 with a homer and two RBI. The Phils hope to keep the damage to that minimal extent over the next four days.
The Pitcher: Jaime Garcia
The Phillies will be seeing the same trio of pitchers in Atlanta that they saw in Philly. The only addition to the four-game set will be former Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey, whose knuckleball used to give the old regime fits.
This time around, I am going with a pitcher who has seemed to take advantage his opportunity with Atlanta. Although Mike Foltynewicz dominated the Phils on the Sunday game last time the two teams met, I really just do not feel like typing that name over and over again, so I choose Jaime Garcia.
Philadelphia Phillies
In all seriousness, Foltynewicz and Garcia have been the two best pitchers for Atlanta early on this year. Garcia has been a tad ahead of Foltynewicz in every area and despite the struggles the Phils had against the youngster, I went with Garcia.
This season, the lefty leads the Bravos in ERA by a ton. He has posted a 3.18 in his short time with Atlanta. The next closest is Foltynewicz with a 3.90 mark. Everyone else in the rotation is set at 5.00 or higher. His 1.25 WHIP is lowest on the team as well.
Garcia has seemingly improved each time out this year. Over his last three starts, he has allowed only one earned run in 21.2 innings. The key has been his control, as he has only walked five batters in that stretch.
Back on April 22nd against the Phils, Garcia went six strong innings, allowing only two earned on five hits and a walk. He struck out six that day and induced 10 ground ball outs over those six frames. None of the current Phils have more than two hits off the 30 year old. Odubel Herrera leads the way with two hits, while Freddy Galvis stands at the end with an 0-11 tab against Garcia.
Most of his starts have come on the road this season, but the Mexico native has posted a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings at home. Over his career against the Phils, he has had success. A career ERA of 2.82 with only two dingers allowed in eleven games is about as solid as it gets.
Garcia will not overpower hitters, but has a deceptive left-handed delivery. He throws his fastballs in the low-to-mid 90s, and fools hitters with a slow change or slider he throws in the mid-80s. He has used his four-seam and two-seam fastballs a combined 534 times this season.
Next: Five Things Learned from Phillies-Giants
His changeup-slider combination gets the next most play at 276 times. It appears that his out-pitch is his slider with 18 Ks. Look for the two-seam fastball running back against right-handed hitters with two strikes.