Phillies-Pirates: Five things to watch for this weekend
After being swept by the Rangers in Texas, the Phillies have fallen to fourth place in the division ahead of only the Marlins.
The Phillies are winners of just three games this month with their last consecutive wins coming April 20-27 when they played the Braves and Marlins.
Heading into their weekend series with the Pirates, the Phils desperately need a change of fortune. They can’t afford to lose another series and fall farther and farther from .500.
Last year, the Phillies were 3-4 against the Pirates. They lost a July weekend series in Pittsburgh before splitting a four-game set in September in Philadelphia.
Here are five things to watch for as the Phils head to Pittsburgh to the face the 17-23 Pirates.
Can Jeremy Hellickson continue to dominate the Pirates
It may not be “win day” when Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound, but it’s the closest thing we have. Looking to halt the Phillies recent landslide, Hellickson takes the mound in Pittsburgh where he’s experienced tremendous success throughout his career.
Pitching against a Pirates lineup missing several stars, Hellickson, and the Phillies could be favored going into the Friday night showdown.
Here’s how some of the Pirates starters have performed against Hellickson in his career, whether as a Ray, Diamondback, or Phillie.
Francisco Cervelli: 0-7
Josh Bell: 0-2
Jordy Mercer: 0-4
Josh Harrison: 1-3
Andrew McCutchen: 1-5 with four walks in 9 appearances
John Jaso: 1-9
David Freese: 1-8
Adam Fraizer: 1-3
Chris Stewart: 0-4
With no Gregory Polanco, Jung Ho Kang, or Starling Marte the Pirates lineup is a shell of itself. Considering none of their starters this weekend have more than a single hit against Hellickson, the righty should fare well on the road
Nola Returns
Sunday will mark the first time Aaron Nola will make a major-league start since April 20. The righty will have missed a month with a back strain that he sustained in his last start before landing on the DL. The question is, how will Nola perform coming back from the injury?
Before hitting the disabled list, Nola wasn’t off to a great start. He had a 4.50 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first three starts of the season. Nola’s walk rate of 8.7%, while not too bad, is notably higher than it ever has been in his professional career.
In his last start, Nola gave up four runs on seven hits and four walks to the Mets. The righty lasted just five innings but still got the win thanks to the five runs Philadelphia had by the end of the third inning.
Nola looked much better in his two rehab starts with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He gave up just one run in four innings May 10 before going 6.1 scoreless May 15 with seven strikeouts and one walk allowed.
It would be understandable if Nola struggled a bit after missing more than a month, but with multiple injuries now under his belt, any struggles will be worrisome and bring up questions of his healthiness.
Is it hittin’ season yet?
Every calendar year is broken up into five parts: winter, spring, fall, summer, and hittin’ season. Charlie Manuel famously coined the term to describe the time of year when the weather warmed up and the ball flew further through the air.
Unfortunately, the baseball version of Punxatawney Phil brought an extra six weeks until hittin’ season, and the Phillies bats have suffered for it.
Half of the Phillies eight position players are hitting under .250 this season, and even Cesar Hernandez’ bat has been frostbitten.
But with the weather in Pittsburgh this weekend expected to touch the 80’s, the tides are turning towards hittin’ season.
This is where players such as Maikel Franco and Cameron Rupp need to find their swing sooner rather than later and prove they are part of the solution to the Phillies horrid start. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh this weekend and Colorado the next will be the largest tests of this team’s character and perseverance yet. It’s time to turn the calendar and prepare for hittin’ season.
Vince Velasquez pitch count
The narrative surrounding Vince Velasquez once again is his lack of efficiency on the mound. He averages 17.6 pitches per innings, which is the 13th-highest mark among qualified pitchers.
The lone time Velasquez finished seven innings this season, and the first time he did since his last start of 2016, he did record eight strikeouts and didn’t walk anyone. However, he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two home runs, as he was the losing pitcher in Philadelphia’s 6-1 loss to the Nationals on May 6.
In his last start against the Nationals, it took Velasquez 100 pitches to finish five innings. He gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts. It was the first time all season he didn’t give up a home run, so yay! Progress!
Short starts plagued the Phils during their series in Texas as no starter went past six innings and two were done by the fifth. The bullpen is once again overworked after throwing so many innings against the Rangers. Velasquez has to do whatever he can to stay in the game for as long as he can as the bullpen can’t afford any more short starts.
Philadelphia can take full advantage of a bad team
As mentioned earlier, the Pirates year has been sunk just 40 games into the 2017 season.
Between Jung Ho Kang being arrested for DUI, Starling Marte suspended for PEDs, Andrew McCutchen trade rumors, and both Gregory Polanco and Gerrit Cole on the DL this team smells worse than, well, a pirate.
This could be a messy series based on how rough the cross-state rivals have played this year. Both stand on a sinking ship with little ability to bail themselves out.
Pittsburgh will send Ivan Nova, Trevor Williams, and Chad Kuhl out as their projected starters, none of which has a winning record this year.
Nothing will be guaranteed in this series, especially with two sub-.500 teams competing. I do expect the Phillies to take the first game with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound based on his aforementioned success against Pirates hitters. Vince Velasquez is a crap shoot at times with his pitch count, and Sunday will be our first look at Aaron Nola in a month.
Next: Phillies Power Ranking: 10 players most likely to be traded
First pitch from Pittsburgh on Friday is slated to be at 7:05 with Hellickson versus Williams.